Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire

频道: Acquired
视频: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/disney-the-renaissance-and-the-empire
原文语言: en
统计: 共 264 轮 · Ben Gilbert 70 · David Rosenthal 109

[0:00] Ben Gilbert

All right. So, David, the real question is, after this episode, it gets released. It becomes this durable IP that is part of an IP franchise. Will we turn this into a musical?Oh, yes, absolutely. With masks, dancing in the aisles.And I'm thinking, too, we may as well do Acquired on Ice.Oh, yeah. While we're at it. Let's go.Yet another adaptation of it.Can we do Acquired in Space?

好，那么大卫，真正的问题是：这期节目发布之后，它会变成一个经久不衰的 IP，成为某个 IP 系列的一部分。我们要不要把它改编成音乐剧？——哦，当然要。戴上面具，观众在过道里跳舞。——我还在想，我们干脆再做一台《Acquired 冰上秀》。——对啊，反正都做了，来吧。——又一个改编版本。——那能不能做《Acquired 太空版》？

[0:26] Ben Gilbert

Oh, we know a few people who could make that happen.Yeah, help make that happen. All right.All right. Let's do this.Welcome to the fall 2026 season of Acquired,the podcast about great companies and the stories and playbooks behind them.I'm Ben Gilbert.I'm David Rosenthal.And we are your hosts.Disney is so much more than you think it is.It is Mickey and Minnie and Ariel and Simba and Elsa and Woody and Buzz and Nemo and all the Pixar characters.And, of course, it's the Avengers and Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader and Winnie the Pooh and Disneyland and Disney World and Disney Cruises, Disney Hotels.But now it's also The Simpsons and Avatar and National Geographic, plus the entire studio of 20th Century Fox,a privately owned government inside the state of Florida, a private island in the Bahamas, 10 Broadway musicals,the special effects firm Industrial Light and Magic and Skywalker Sound, one of the four major U.S. broadcast networks, ABC.It is, of course, ESPN.I was wondering when you were going to get to the worldwide leader here.That's where unexpectedly a giant amount of the profits of the whole company come from.It is the SEC network.And for a period of time, David, they got even more exotic, owning the NHL team, the Mighty Ducks.

哦，我们认识几个能把这事办成的人。——是啊，帮我们把它办成。好了。——好，咱们开始吧。欢迎收听 Acquired 2026 秋季档，这档播客讲的是伟大的公司，以及它们背后的故事与打法（playbook）。我是本·吉尔伯特（Ben Gilbert）。我是大卫·罗森塔尔（David Rosenthal）。我们是你的主持人。迪士尼远比你以为的要庞大得多。它是米奇和米妮，是爱丽儿、辛巴、艾莎、胡迪、巴斯光年、尼莫，以及皮克斯的所有角色。当然，它也是复仇者联盟、卢克·天行者、达斯·维达、小熊维尼，是迪士尼乐园、迪士尼世界、迪士尼邮轮、迪士尼酒店。但如今它还是《辛普森一家》、《阿凡达》、国家地理，外加整个二十世纪福斯（20th Century Fox）制片厂；是佛罗里达州境内一块私人拥有的「政府辖区」，是巴哈马的一座私人岛屿，是 10 部百老汇音乐剧；是特效公司工业光魔（Industrial Light & Magic）和天行者音效（Skywalker Sound）；是美国四大广播电视网之一的 ABC。当然，它还是 ESPN。——我就在等你什么时候提到「全球体育老大」（the worldwide leader）。——那儿恰恰是整家公司利润里出人意料的一大块来源。它还是 SEC 电视网。而且有一段时间，大卫，他们玩得更花——他们连 NHL 球队「强壮鸭」（Mighty Ducks）都拥有过。

[2:12] Ben Gilbert

Oh, yeah.The Anaheim Angels.Angels in the outfield, baby.And the 1936 British ocean liner, the Queen Mary.That's right.Despite being one of America's most storied and stable brands, the company is going through a time of immense upheaval.They're in the midst of a transition to streaming with Disney Plus and Hulu and ESPN,making giant technology and marketing investments to support that transition that lost billions for half a decade.And they're doing this while their old, fantastically profitable businesses are fading.Consumers don't really go to the movies like they used to.They don't buy movies on VHS or DVD or Blu-ray.And of course, consumers are also cutting the cords to cancel their cable subscription.So those fat profits from cable channels like ESPN are shrinking every year.And Disney, despite being over 100 years old, is at the very center of the most interesting business strategy questions that have ever been posed.Can we fight the innovator's dilemma and win?

哦，对。——还有阿纳海姆天使队（Anaheim Angels）。——《天使在外野》，宝贝。——以及 1936 年下水的英国远洋邮轮「玛丽女王号」（Queen Mary）。——没错。尽管迪士尼是美国最具传奇色彩、最稳健的品牌之一，这家公司眼下却正经历一场剧烈动荡。他们正处在向流媒体转型的中途——Disney+、Hulu 和 ESPN；为支撑这场转型，他们投入了巨额的技术与营销开支，连亏五年、亏掉数十亿美元。而与此同时，他们那些老牌的、利润高得惊人的业务正在褪色。消费者不再像过去那样上电影院了。他们不再买 VHS 录像带、DVD 或蓝光碟。当然，消费者还在「剪线」（cutting the cord），取消有线电视订阅。所以像 ESPN 这样的有线频道带来的丰厚利润正在逐年缩水。而迪士尼，尽管已经超过 100 岁，却正处在有史以来最有意思的商业战略命题的正中心：我们能不能对抗「创新者的窘境」（innovator's dilemma）并且赢？

[3:15] Ben Gilbert

What exactly is enduring about our business as technology and trends change?And can our future be as bright as our past?Today, listeners, we tell the story of how Disney went from Walt's tidy, neat idea of an animation studio turned theme park operatorinto the global, sprawling, diversified behemoth that Disney acquired and expanded its way to today.And we'll answer that question.What does their future look like from here?

随着技术与潮流变迁，我们这门生意里究竟什么是恒久不变的？我们的未来能不能像过去一样光明？听众朋友们，今天我们要讲的，是迪士尼如何从沃尔特那个干净利落、边界清晰的构想——一家动画工作室转型成主题乐园运营商——一路变成今天这个靠收购和扩张堆出来的全球化、庞杂、多元的庞然大物。我们也会回答那个问题：从这里往前看，他们的未来会是什么样？

[3:43] Ben Gilbert

Yes.All right.Well, big news from Acquired headquarters.This episode has a companion PDF with visuals, charts, tables and illustrations of the key concepts we discuss.You can get access and follow along by clicking the link in the show notes or going to library.acquired.fm.You can join the email list at acquired.fm slash email.That's where we'll send out behind the scenes photos of research, past episode corrections,and it's where you can vote on future episode topics.Plus, we'll give away a little hint each time at what the next episode is about.That is acquired.fm slash email.And if you are in the Bay Area on September 17th, you should join us for the official 2026 Acquired Meetup with our friends at Century.Details are at acquired.fm slash meetup.Woo.Before we dive in, we want to thank our brand spanking new presenting partner, Sierra.Yes.Sierra is not only the very best partner for agents in the enterprise, but also home to the self-proclaimed co-presidents of the Acquired Fan Club, Clay Bevor and Brett Taylor.Yes.As Brett and Clay shared on stage with us a few weeks ago when we were in New York together.Yes, indeed.Thank you, Sierra.So with that, listeners, this show is not investment advice.

是的。好了。Acquired 总部有个大消息：本期节目配有一份 PDF 配套资料，里面有我们讨论的关键概念的图示、图表、表格和插画。点击节目简介里的链接，或者访问 library.acquired.fm，就能拿到并跟着看。你可以在 acquired.fm/email 加入邮件列表。我们会在那里发调研幕后照片、往期节目的更正，你也可以在那里投票决定未来的选题。另外，每次我们都会给下一期的主题留一点小提示。就是 acquired.fm/email。如果 9 月 17 日你人在湾区，欢迎来参加我们和 Century 的朋友们一起办的 2026 年 Acquired 官方线下聚会，详情见 acquired.fm/meetup。哇哦。在正式开讲之前，我们要感谢我们全新的冠名合作伙伴 Sierra。——没错。Sierra 不仅是企业级 Agent 领域最好的合作伙伴，同时也是自封的「Acquired 粉丝俱乐部联合主席」克莱·巴沃（Clay Bavor）和布雷特·泰勒（Bret Taylor）的大本营。——对。就像几周前我们一起在纽约时，布雷特和克莱在台上跟我们说的那样。——确实如此。谢谢 Sierra。那么听众朋友们，本节目不构成投资建议。

[5:01] David Rosenthal

David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss, and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only.All right.Well, we start.In 1984, the year I was born, all this was happening.I had no idea.Disney is in chaos.In the 18 or so years since Walt died, Disney's star has faded so badly that it looks like no wish can save it.So Disney animation, once the shining pillar of the American can-do spirit and the core of Disney's beautiful flywheel business model, has become a rotting carcass of its former self.That's the kindest way I could think to put it.Epcot has just launched in Florida, not as Walt Disney's utopian dream of a city of the future, but as a massively over budget and underwhelming World's Fair knockoff that the company has sunk hundreds of millions of dollars deep into debt to build.Family drama among the Disney's runs rampant.Roy, Disney's son, Roy E. Disney, has resigned from the company and is scheming to launch a boardroom attack on Walt's once beloved son-in-law, Ron Miller, who is currently the CEO running the company.The stock is in the dumps.There have been multiple corporate raiders swirling.There are deals on the table to break up Disney, sell off the film library, Snow White, Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, sell it all off to MGM, sell the theme parks off to hotel operators, maximize shareholder value here in the 1980s.

我和大卫可能持有我们所讨论公司的仓位，本节目仅供参考与娱乐。好了，我们开始。1984 年，我出生的那一年，这一切正在发生——我当时一无所知。迪士尼陷入了混乱。在沃尔特去世后的十八年左右，迪士尼这颗星星黯淡得太厉害，看上去没有任何愿望能拯救它。迪士尼动画曾是美国「实干精神」的一根光辉支柱，是迪士尼那套漂亮飞轮商业模式的核心，如今却成了它自己昔日模样的一具腐烂躯壳——这已经是我能想到的最客气的说法了。EPCOT（未来世界）刚刚在佛罗里达开园，但它不是沃尔特·迪士尼那个「未来之城」的乌托邦梦想，而是一个严重超支、令人失望的世博会仿制品，公司为了建它背上了数亿美元的债务。迪士尼家族内部的家庭剧也在疯狂上演。罗伊——迪士尼家的儿子、罗伊·E·迪士尼（Roy E. Disney）——已经从公司辞职，并正在密谋对沃尔特曾经深爱的女婿、时任 CEO 的罗恩·米勒（Ron Miller）发动一场董事会突袭。股价一塌糊涂。多路「企业狙击手」（corporate raiders）在周围盘旋。桌面上摆着好几个拆分迪士尼的方案：卖掉片库——《白雪公主》《灰姑娘》《睡美人》——统统卖给米高梅（MGM）；把主题乐园卖给酒店运营商；在这 1980 年代把股东价值最大化。

[6:45] David Rosenthal

And in the midst of all this, desperate to ward off these corporate raiders, management strikes a series of friendly deals with four oil and gas and real estate brothers in Fort Worth, Texas.The Bass family and their famous investment manager, Richard Rainwater, that results in the Bass family owning about 25 percent of the Walt Disney Company and becoming Disney's largest shareholders.Yeah. How crazy is this?

就在这一切之中，管理层为了拼命挡住这些狙击手，跟得克萨斯州沃斯堡（Fort Worth）做石油天然气和地产的四兄弟——巴斯家族（the Bass family）以及他们那位著名的投资经理理查德·雷恩沃特（Richard Rainwater）——达成了一系列「友好」交易，结果是巴斯家族持有了华特迪士尼公司约 25% 的股份，成为迪士尼最大的股东。——是啊，这事儿有多离谱？

[7:17] Ben Gilbert

It's quite the introduction that the company was in such bad shape in 1983.Their stock dropped from eighty two dollars to fifty two dollars that the company was worth more if you sold it for parts than actually running it.And so the only defense that they have against these corporate raiders is to find a corporate raider of their own.Right.Dilute shareholders so much that they're creating all these new shares to give to these new guys.These Texas guys.The Bass family.So they can own 25 percent, which basically makes them, you know, pseudo controlling shareholders.More than any of the remaining branches of the Disney family.Yes. And that is by far the best option to fend off these corporate raiders.Dark times.And David, things have gotten so bad in the creative core engine that nearly every dollar of profit is coming from the parks and licensing consumer products at this point.Films and TV, you know, the Disney that you know of, the content business is basically break even.In 1984, Disney generated a quarter billion dollars of profit from its parks and consumer products and a mere two million from film and TV.The core of the famous Disney flywheel is completely broken.But, but there is a spark of hope.

这开场真够可以的：1983 年公司状况差到这个地步——股价从 82 美元跌到 52 美元，公司拆开来卖比继续经营还值钱。所以他们对抗这些企业狙击手的唯一防守手段，就是给自己找一个「自己人」的狙击手。对吧。把股东稀释到那种程度，增发这么多新股给这批新人——这帮得州人，巴斯家族——好让他们持有 25%，这基本上让他们成了准控股股东，比迪士尼家族剩下的任何一支都更有话语权。——是的。而这已经是抵御那些狙击手远远最优的选项了。黑暗时代。——还有，大卫，创意这个核心引擎已经烂到这个程度：此时几乎每一美元利润都来自乐园和消费品授权。电影和电视——你所知道的那个迪士尼、那门内容生意——基本上是盈亏平衡。1984 年，迪士尼从乐园和消费品赚了 2.5 亿美元利润，而电影电视只贡献了区区 200 万美元。那个著名的迪士尼飞轮的轴心已经彻底坏了。但是，但是，有一点希望的火星。

[8:38] David Rosenthal

A group of young innovators who will ignite a whole revolution in the movie industry come in and save the company.I'm not talking about Michael Eisner, Frank Wells and Jeffrey Katzenberg.Oh, I thought that's where you were.You would think that's where we're going.Rather, the group that I am talking about is a new hope for the core of Disney animation.The center of the flywheel.All right.So, Ben, what if I told you that during this very same time as everything that I just said, Disney animation is floundering.All of the following people are being taught the craft of Disney animation in a small basement room just a half hour's drive north of the Disney Burbank lot.In another institution that Walt Disney himself had created, set up, and endowed in his will.Cowarts.John Lasseter.Brad Bird.Tim Burton.John Musker, who would do The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, and then many years later, Moana.And then later after them, Andrew Stanton, of course, writer and director of Finding Nemo, WALL-E, Toy Story 5, Brenda Chapman, head of story for The Lion King, and of course, Pete Docter, who today is chief creative officer at Pixar.All of these people are in a basement classroom, classroom A113, home of the character animation program at the California Institute of the Arts, or CalArts.

一群年轻的创新者进来救了这家公司，他们将点燃整个电影工业的一场革命。我说的不是迈克尔·艾斯纳（Michael Eisner）、弗兰克·威尔斯（Frank Wells）和杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格（Jeffrey Katzenberg）。——哦，我还以为你要说的就是他们。——你会以为我们要往那儿讲。我要说的这群人，是迪士尼动画核心的一线新希望——飞轮的轴心。好，本，如果我告诉你：就在我刚才描述的这一切发生的同时，迪士尼动画在苦苦挣扎，而以下这些人正在离迪士尼伯班克（Burbank）片厂往北仅半小时车程的一间小地下室里学习迪士尼动画的手艺——地点是沃尔特·迪士尼本人创办、设立并写进遗嘱捐资的另一所机构：CalArts（加州艺术学院）。约翰·拉塞特（John Lasseter）。布拉德·伯德（Brad Bird）。蒂姆·伯顿（Tim Burton）。约翰·马斯克（John Musker）——他后来做了《小美人鱼》《阿拉丁》，很多年之后又做了《海洋奇缘》。再往后还有安德鲁·斯坦顿（Andrew Stanton），《海底总动员》《机器人总动员》《玩具总动员 5》的编剧兼导演；《狮子王》的故事总监布伦达·查普曼（Brenda Chapman）；当然还有今天皮克斯的首席创意官彼得·多克特（Pete Docter）。所有这些人都挤在一间地下室教室里——A113 教室，加州艺术学院（CalArts）角色动画专业的所在地。

[10:12] David Rosenthal

Which was basically created as a pipeline for Disney, right?Yes, exactly.That was why Walt created CalArts.He wanted it to be this institution that would keep the pipeline of new animation talent flowing into Disney long after he was gone.And Walt left like half of his estate to fund this institution.And it was that.I mean, so there's people I mentioned, John Lasseter, Brad Bird, Tim Burton, John Musker, Brenda Chapman.All of them were hired directly by Disney and Disney Animation right out of school.And then Disney fired all of them.But they all end up back.But, you know, they all end up back.So there's this amazing story that one day while John Lasseter is a student there in the late 70s, he and a bunch of these people, they drive down to go spend the day at Disneyland.And John's girlfriend at the time comes along with them and she says to them, just think, someday this park is going to be filled with the characters that you guys are going to create.And she had no idea both how right and how wrong she was.Yes.It would just take a few decades.Yes.Okay.So how does this company turn around?

那地方基本上就是为迪士尼做的人才输送管道，对吧？——对，正是。沃尔特创办 CalArts 就是为了这个。他希望这所机构在他走后很久，仍能源源不断地把新的动画人才输送进迪士尼。沃尔特把大约一半遗产留给了这所学校。它也确实做到了。我是说，我刚提到的这些人——约翰·拉塞特、布拉德·伯德、蒂姆·伯顿、约翰·马斯克、布伦达·查普曼——全都是一毕业就被迪士尼和迪士尼动画直接招进去的。然后迪士尼又把他们全都开掉了。但他们最后都回来了。——但他们最后都回来了。有个特别妙的故事：70 年代末，约翰·拉塞特还在那儿念书的时候，有一天他和一帮同学开车去迪士尼乐园玩了一整天。他当时的女朋友也跟着去了，她对他们说：想想看，将来有一天，这个乐园里会挤满你们创造出来的角色。她完全不知道自己说得有多对，又有多错。——是的。只是这要花上几十年。——是的。好，那这家公司到底是怎么翻身的？

[11:20] David Rosenthal

Because I was looking at the financials and it looks like 1982 earnings are down 19 percent.And you sort of expect, oh, maybe that's a hiccup.It'll come back.Then 1983 earnings are down another seven percent.Yep.So in the wake of all that, in 1984, Roy Disney decides enough is enough.Together with the Bass Brothers, the new 25 percent shareholders, Roy and his business partner, Stanley Gold, who's also on the Disney board with him, they gang up and they finally force out Ron Miller as CEO.Who, again, is Roy's cousin by marriage, married to Walt's daughter.And they do this via dramatic boardroom coup that happens on September 7th, 1984.And then over a period of just 14 days, because Disney now is without a leader, is in double crisis here.They go out and they identify, recruit, sell and hire.Arguably the greatest two person management team in media company history, Michael Eisner and Frank Wells.And then Michael quickly brings in his number two from Paramount, Jeffrey Katzenberg, to run the film studios.Yep.All right.So who are these guys?

因为我在翻财报，1982 年的利润下滑了 19%。你可能会想，哦，也许只是个小磕绊，会回来的。结果 1983 年利润又跌了 7%。——对。所以在这一切之后，1984 年罗伊·迪士尼决定：受够了。他和新的 25% 股东巴斯兄弟、以及他的生意伙伴、同为迪士尼董事的斯坦利·戈尔德（Stanley Gold）联手，终于把罗恩·米勒赶下了 CEO 的位子。——再说一遍，罗恩是罗伊姻亲上的表亲，娶了沃尔特的女儿。——他们是通过一场戏剧性的董事会政变做到的，时间是 1984 年 9 月 7 日。接下来仅仅 14 天里，因为迪士尼此时群龙无首、陷入双重危机，他们出去物色、招募、说服并聘来了——可以说是媒体公司史上最强的两人管理搭档：迈克尔·艾斯纳和弗兰克·威尔斯。然后迈克尔很快又把他在派拉蒙的二把手杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格挖来掌管电影制片业务。——对。好，那这几位到底是什么人？

[12:36] David Rosenthal

So first, the board goes after Frank Wells.Frank had been the president of Warner Brothers and had since retired.But before that, earlier in his career, he was the mentor of Stanley Gold, Roy Disney's business partner and fellow Disney board member now, back at their old law firm.So Frank is their first call.They trust him deeply.He's eminently qualified.He's recently retired.So he's available.Frank says, I'm interested, but I can't do this alone.There's somebody else you got to call.You got to call Michael Eisner.So Michael, until recently, the timing is just crazy on this, had been probably the hottest Hollywood movie studio executive in town.He had been the number two executive at Paramount under Barry Diller and had architected one of the most legendary runs in Hollywood history.The two of them, Barry Diller and Michael, within a span of seven years, they made Indiana Jones, Star Trek, Saturday Night Fever, Grease, Footloose, Flashdance.The list goes on and on.This is when Paramount was number one.And the way they did it was this famous strategy that they called the singles and doubles strategy.The idea was they would keep their production costs low.They would generally not work with a list stars and directors.

首先，董事会去找的是弗兰克·威尔斯。弗兰克曾任华纳兄弟（Warner Brothers）总裁，当时已经退休。而在更早的职业生涯里，他在他们原来那家律所是斯坦利·戈尔德的导师——戈尔德就是罗伊·迪士尼的生意伙伴、现在的迪士尼董事同僚。所以弗兰克是他们打的第一个电话。他们非常信任他。他资历完全够格。他刚退休，所以有空。弗兰克说：我有兴趣，但我一个人干不了这事。你们还得打一个电话——去找迈克尔·艾斯纳。迈克尔直到不久前——这个时间点简直巧到离谱——大概是全好莱坞最炙手可热的电影公司高管。他曾是派拉蒙（Paramount）在巴里·迪勒（Barry Diller）手下的二号人物，一手打造了好莱坞史上最传奇的一段战绩。他们俩，巴里·迪勒和迈克尔，在七年时间里做出了《夺宝奇兵》《星际迷航》《周末夜狂热》《油脂》《浑身是劲》《闪舞》，名单还能一直列下去。那时候派拉蒙是行业第一。而他们的做法，就是那套著名的「一垒打和二垒打」（singles and doubles）策略。核心想法是：把制作成本压低；一般不用一线明星和一线导演。

[14:03] David Rosenthal

And instead, they would focus on the quality of the scripts and the stories and let that be their guiding judgment as opposed to the typical Hollywood thing of who's attached to the project.Like, do we have the stars?

取而代之的是，他们把注意力放在剧本和故事的质量上，让这个当作决策的主导标准，而不是好莱坞那套典型做法——这个项目挂了谁的名字？我们有没有明星？

[14:13]

And the singles and doubles name appealed to shareholders.It didn't exactly appeal to talent.And so the way they built it, the other direction was high concept.Exactly.Describing a unique idea whose originality can be conveyed briefly.Yep.So Michael writes a famous memo in Hollywood history that gets leaked and spread around the rest of Hollywood describing the strategy.Spoiler alert.No memo actually ever leaks in Hollywood.They're all intentionally leaked.Yes, they're written for publication.Yeah.That's the way this town works.So Michael writes,We have no obligation to make art.We have no obligation to make history.We have no obligation to make a statement.But to make money, it is often important to make history, to make art, or to make some significant statement.Not even the greatest screenwriter or actor or director can be counted on to save a film that lacks a strong underlying concept.There you go, Ben.High concept.That's right.And there was another memo leaked later by Jeffrey Katzenberg who, you know, speaking of the lieutenants, you got Barry Diller's lieutenant is Michael Eisner.Michael Eisner's lieutenant is Jeffrey Katzenberg.Jeffrey writes a memo later where he espouses this really great line that celebrity can open a film, but celebrity can't carry a film.

「一垒打和二垒打」这个说法很讨股东喜欢，但并不太讨创作者和明星喜欢。所以他们在另一个方向上的做法是「高概念」（high concept）。——正是。指的是那种独创性可以被三言两语讲清楚的独特点子。——对。于是迈克尔写了一份好莱坞历史上著名的备忘录，被泄露出去、传遍了整个好莱坞，讲的就是这套策略。剧透一下：好莱坞从来没有真正「泄露」的备忘录，全都是故意泄露的。——对，它们就是为了见报而写的。——是啊，这个圈子就是这么运转的。迈克尔写道：「我们没有义务创造艺术。我们没有义务创造历史。我们没有义务发表什么主张。但要赚钱，往往就必须创造历史、创造艺术，或者发表某种有分量的主张。就算是最伟大的编剧、演员或导演，也救不了一部缺乏强有力底层概念的电影。」——你看，本，这就是高概念。——没错。后来还有一份被泄露的备忘录，出自杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格之手。说到副手：巴里·迪勒的副手是迈克尔·艾斯纳，迈克尔·艾斯纳的副手是杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格。杰弗瑞后来写的那份备忘录里有一句特别精彩的话：名气能让一部电影开画，但名气扛不动一部电影。

[15:32]

So, yes, you can pay up to attach these big names.But ultimately, the audience does experience the quality of the story for itself.And you kind of need the story and the characters and the emotion to take it from there.Yep.Yep.Now, on the one hand, this is crazy that these guys are coming in to run Disney.Disney is not a Hollywood company.Right?

所以是的，你可以花大价钱把这些大名字绑上来。但归根结底，观众会亲自感受故事的质量。你终究需要故事、人物和情感把片子接过去、扛下去。——对。对。现在，一方面，这几个人进来管迪士尼这件事本身就很疯狂。迪士尼不是一家「好莱坞公司」，对吧？

[15:53]

It's a Warner Brothers retired executive and a hotshot Paramount executive.Michael from Paramount has not seen Disney movies.He was not raised on them.He had never seen Snow White or Sleeping Beauty.He wasn't really a Disney guy.No, no, no.Despite the fact that as soon as he later gets the job, he was never without his Mickey Mouse tie.Of course, of course.But yeah, I didn't know how to run a theme park, flywheel, anything.But when you think about it, though, Michael's philosophy actually is pretty simpatico with the Disney philosophy.It's all about story.It's all about concept.And yes, Walt had a very different way of doing this.He would go big and invest tons in technology and animation.And Michael is like, produce things cheap, singles and doubles.But they're both story first.They're both obsessed with, can we create characters that take you on these emotional journeys and tell compelling stories?

来的是一位华纳兄弟的退休高管，和一位派拉蒙的当红高管。派拉蒙出来的迈克尔根本没看过迪士尼电影。他不是看着这些片子长大的。他从没看过《白雪公主》或《睡美人》。他压根不是「迪士尼迷」。——不是，完全不是。尽管他后来一拿到这份工作，就再没离过身上那条米老鼠领带。——当然，当然。——不过说真的，我也不懂怎么运营主题乐园、飞轮这些东西。但仔细想想，迈克尔的理念其实和迪士尼的理念相当合拍。一切都关乎故事。一切都关乎概念。当然，沃尔特的做法很不一样——他会往大了做，在技术和动画上疯狂投入；而迈克尔是「便宜地做，一垒打二垒打」。但他们都是故事优先。他们都痴迷于同一个问题：我们能不能创造出带你走完一段情感旅程的角色，讲出真正抓人的故事？

[16:47]

And then the unthinkable happens.Michael gets forced out of Paramount at the peak of his success.Well, sort of.Barry leaves, as we talked to Barry about on stage at Radio City Music Hall.To team up with Rupert Murdoch and launch Fox.Yes, Fox the TV network, because Fox the film studio already existed.So Barry leaves.Michael is supposed to get the job that Barry had as chairman of the movie studio over at Paramount.And he doesn't get that job, largely because of internal politics and who's making how much money, those sort of games.And Michael basically, his contract says that he's owed a check if he does not get the job when Barry leaves.So Michael decides, you know what?

然后不可思议的事发生了：迈克尔在事业巅峰期被挤出了派拉蒙。——嗯，算是吧。是巴里走了——就像我们在无线电城音乐厅（Radio City Music Hall）台上跟巴里聊过的那样——他去和鲁伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）联手创办福克斯。——对，是福克斯电视网，因为福克斯电影公司当时已经存在了。——所以巴里走了。迈克尔本该接替巴里在派拉蒙留下的电影公司董事长一职，但他没拿到，主要是因为内部政治、以及谁赚多少钱之类的博弈。而迈克尔的合同基本上写明：如果巴里离开时他没有拿到那个职位，公司欠他一笔钱。所以迈克尔决定：算了。

[17:33] David Rosenthal

I don't really want to stay here without Barry anyway.I'm going to start poking around for other things.He had been having these kind of background conversations.I'll take the check and get out of here.Yep.So all of a sudden, Michael's available right as all this drama is going on at Disney.He was on the board of CalArts with Roy E. Disney.So they've been talking for a while, but now it all comes together.So Frank is offered the top job and Michael's offered number two.Then there's a second iteration where they're sort of offered co-CEOs.And Michael basically tells Frank, hey, look, if I'm going to do this, I'm CEO or I'm chairman, I think is even what he says.And you're number two, because we need to send a signal to the world that Disney is run by a creative executive of which he was at Paramount.And Frank had always sort of been more the numbers and legal and operations.Operational.He was a legal background.So if this is going to work, I have to be the top guy.And Frank, this tells you everything about who Frank is and sort of how the company would work for the next decade.Frank says, OK, that makes sense to me.I'm perfectly happy to do it.I'll be your number two as long as we both just report to the board.

反正没有巴里，我也不太想留在这儿了。我要开始四处看看别的机会。他此前一直在做一些私下接触。——我拿了这笔钱走人。——对。于是突然之间，恰好在迪士尼这一堆戏码上演的时候，迈克尔有空了。他当时和罗伊·E·迪士尼同在 CalArts 的董事会。所以他们已经聊了一阵子，但现在一切凑到了一起。于是弗兰克被开出了头把交椅的职位，迈克尔被开出二号位。接着又有第二轮方案，变成了某种联席 CEO。而迈克尔基本上是这么跟弗兰克说的：嘿，听着，如果我要干这个，我得是 CEO——我想他实际说的词是「董事长」（chairman）——而你是二号，因为我们必须向外界发出一个信号：迪士尼是由一位创意型高管掌舵的，而他在派拉蒙正是这个角色。而弗兰克一直更偏数字、法务和运营。——运营型。他是法律背景出身。——所以如果这事要成，我必须是最高的那个人。而弗兰克的回答，把他这个人是什么样、以及这家公司接下来十年会怎么运转，全都说明白了。弗兰克说：好，这对我说得通。我完全乐意这么干。我来当你的二号，只要我们两个都直接向董事会汇报。

[18:49] David Rosenthal

I'll be president.You can be the chairman.But we both have our own relationship with the board.Michael says, works for me.Yep.So on September 21st, 1984, Michael Eisner and Frank Wells are introduced as the new CEO and president of the Walt Disney Company.Can we just talk about what dire straits this company was in that they had to go and in a matter of weeks find two people who had zero relationship with the company, had never worked there, and bring them in and make one of them chairman of the board?

我当总裁（president），你当董事长（chairman）。但我们各自与董事会保持自己的关系。迈克尔说：我没问题。——对。于是 1984 年 9 月 21 日，迈克尔·艾斯纳和弗兰克·威尔斯以华特迪士尼公司新任 CEO 和总裁的身份亮相。——我们能不能停下来说一句：这家公司得窘迫到什么地步，才会在几周之内跑出去找两个跟公司毫无关系、从没在这儿干过的人，把他们请进来，还让其中一个当董事长？

[19:21]

Also, we should say there was a giant comp package if the studio did well.There was massive profit sharing.There was big stock options issued.It was like we need a complete reboot and we're bringing in these Hollywood guys from other studios to make it happen.Yep.Yep.Yep.They turn around quickly and bring in Jeffrey Katzenberg from Paramount as well to come in and run the studios under Michael at Disney.Yep.And the plan is Disney's going to become Paramount.Actually, one of the first items on their agenda is they move the animation department out of the Burbank lot and basically exile Disney animation over to Glendale.They're like, hey, we got to make room for all the, you know, movie producers that we're going to bring in here and make live action films.If you're one of these animators who is looking at it from the perspective of what makes this place special and the very first thing, let's say you were optimistic about change that happens is they kick the animators out of the building that Walt's office was in.This is like the historic animation building.They clear them out and they say, go to Glendale in this like really rickety rundown building instead.Not looking good for the core of the Disney flywheel here.

另外我们该说一句，如果制片业务干得好，还有一份巨额薪酬包。有大规模的利润分成。有大笔股票期权发出去。基本就是：我们需要彻底重启，我们要从别的制片厂请这些好莱坞人来把这事办成。——对对对。他们很快又从派拉蒙请来了杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格，到迪士尼在迈克尔手下掌管制片业务。——对。而计划是：迪士尼要变成派拉蒙。事实上，他们议程上最早的一件事，就是把动画部门从伯班克片厂搬走，基本上是把迪士尼动画流放到了格伦代尔（Glendale）。他们的想法是：嘿，我们得腾地方，给我们要请进来拍真人电影的那些制片人。——如果你是这些动画师之一，从「是什么让这个地方与众不同」的角度看这件事，那么发生的头一件事——就算你原本对变革还挺乐观——就是他们把动画师从沃尔特办公室所在的那栋楼里赶了出去。那可是历史悠久的动画大楼。他们把人清空，然后说：去格伦代尔那栋摇摇欲坠的破楼里待着吧。迪士尼飞轮的核心，形势看着可不妙。

[20:30]

And then Eisner and Wells turn their attention to the parks.And this is where some light bulbs start to go off.One of the first things they do that ends up, I think, really setting up all the following success that Eisner and Wells and Katzenberg have is they raise the ticket prices at Disneyland and Disney World.Ticket prices at the Disney parks have basically been flat since Walt died, like the spirit around the company and the ethos of management.It's like, well, Walt wanted this to be accessible to everybody and he set these prices.So, like, we shouldn't change them.Never mind that inflation was rampant during the 1970s.So, parking at Disney World and Disneyland when Eisner and Wells come in to run the company is still only a buck.So, they start raising ticket and parking prices at the parks.Not enormously, but like.They had so much headroom here.I mean, you can criticize them all you want today for raising prices.But they had, I don't know, five to ten X of you can raise the price and it wouldn't impact demand for a second back then.I mean, you can raise the price of parking from $1 to $5.So, nobody will care.But when you do that in an operational business like parks, all of that incremental profit falls right to the bottom line.

然后艾斯纳和威尔斯把注意力转向了乐园。就是在这里，一些灯泡开始亮了。他们最早做的、我认为真正为艾斯纳、威尔斯和卡曾伯格后来一切成功打下基础的一件事，是给迪士尼乐园和迪士尼世界涨门票价。——迪士尼乐园的门票价格自沃尔特去世后基本上就没动过，就像公司周围那股气氛和管理层的价值观一样：沃尔特希望这个地方人人都消费得起，价格是他定的，所以我们不该改。至于 1970 年代通胀失控这件事，就当没发生。所以艾斯纳和威尔斯接手公司时，迪士尼世界和迪士尼乐园的停车费还只要 1 美元。——于是他们开始提高乐园的门票和停车价格。涨得不算离谱，但……——他们的提价空间实在太大了。今天你想怎么批评他们涨价都行，但当时他们大概有五到十倍的空间——你涨价，需求一秒钟都不会受影响。我是说，你把停车费从 1 美元涨到 5 美元，没人会在意。——而当你在乐园这种运营型生意里这么做时，所有增量利润都直接落到净利里。

[21:53]

This is pure incremental cash flow into the Walt Disney Company because they're not changing the operations at all.They're just making more money.So, Eisner and Wells turn around and they take all these quick profits from the parks and they start investing them into building the live action studios and running the Paramount playbook.Sort of.That still didn't generate as much cash as they'd actually need to finance the full film slate.So, for each of the films, all 75 films they would make over the next eight years, those were financed by a partner called Silver Screens.Ah, interesting.So, Michael's singles and doubles strategy worked at Paramount.It works even better at Disney.They make Down and Out in Beverly Hills, Three Men and a Baby, Good Morning Vietnam, Dead Poets Society, Pretty Woman.These are all huge hits with, you know, singles and doubles sized budgets.And they would get actors that would go on to be big, big names.I mean, you name in Robin Williams and Bette Midler.Julia Roberts.And they were basically looking for ways to get deals on talent.Yes.So, a lot of times it was like actors that had been in rehab and were looking to make a comeback.Or it was these up and comers.

这对华特迪士尼公司来说是纯粹的增量现金流，因为他们根本没改变任何运营，只是多赚了钱。——于是艾斯纳和威尔斯转过身，把乐园赚来的这些快钱拿去投资建设真人电影业务，跑那套派拉蒙打法。——算是吧。那笔钱其实还是不够支撑整条片单的融资。所以接下来八年里他们拍的每一部片子——总共 75 部——都是由一家叫 Silver Screen 的合作方出资的。——啊，有意思。——迈克尔的「一垒打二垒打」策略在派拉蒙管用，在迪士尼更管用。他们拍了《贝弗利山贼》《三个奶爸一个娃》《早安越南》《死亡诗社》《风月俏佳人》。这些都是大热片，而预算只是「一垒打二垒打」级别的。——他们还挑到了后来会大红大紫的演员。你随口一说：罗宾·威廉姆斯、贝特·米德勒。——朱莉娅·罗伯茨。——他们基本上就是在找「演员上的便宜货」。——是的。所以很多时候是那些进过戒瘾所、想东山再起的演员，或者是还没红的新人。

[23:07]

But it was, in many ways, like a young Warren Buffett strategy of looking for cigar butts.Yes.That they knew they could get a guaranteed return on.But it works, man.All told, 27 of their first 33 movies that they make are profitable.Which, in Hollywood, to have a hit rate like that, that's like making 33 venture capital investments and only losing money in six of them.Right.Films are like books or like startups power law distributed.Yep.Normally.But, of course, along the way, as we all know, they do quickly realize that, hey, there's some potential in this animation thing here, too.Well, this is a Roy E. Disney special.Roy views his job as the keeper of Walt's vision and the keeper of the thing that made the company special.And the thing that made the company special was this ridiculous flywheel, for lack of a better term, that they had where you make amazing, compelling characters on universally relatable stories told through animation, drawn in a spectacular way that no other studio can do.And then you get to pump that into consumer products and parks and kids pass down to their kids.And it's this, like, beautiful special business model.You re-release the classics in theaters from the Disney vault and you make cash flow on that.

但在很多方面，这很像年轻时的沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）捡「烟蒂股」的策略。——对，他们知道自己能从中拿到确定的回报。——但这招真管用。总的算下来，他们最早拍的 33 部电影里有 27 部是盈利的。在好莱坞能有这样的命中率，那就像做了 33 笔风险投资、只有 6 笔亏钱一样。——对。电影跟书、跟创业公司一样，是幂律分布的。——对，正常情况下是。——不过当然，一路走下来我们都知道，他们很快意识到：嘿，动画这块儿其实也还有点搞头。——这是罗伊·E·迪士尼的独门执念。罗伊把自己的工作看作是沃尔特愿景的守护者，是那个让这家公司与众不同的东西的守护者。而让这家公司与众不同的东西，就是那个——姑且叫飞轮吧——荒谬到不可思议的飞轮：你用动画讲述人人都能共情的故事，创造出了不起、动人的角色，画得漂亮到别的工作室都做不出来；然后你把它灌进消费品和主题乐园，孩子们长大再传给自己的孩子。这是一套美妙而独特的商业模式。你还可以把经典片从「迪士尼片库」（the Disney vault）里拿出来重映院线，再赚一轮现金流。

[24:24]

And Roy's sitting here looking at the current business of singles and doubles and live action and being like, hey, we got to do the Disney thing.Yeah. So as part of the deal, when they brought Eisner and Wells in, Roy had made them promise not to fully kill animation.And then he had made them make him, Roy, chairman of the animation division under Katzenberg, who's running all the studios.Okay. So flashback to the day that Michael and Frank take over.What had happened the 13 years up to that point?

而罗伊坐在那儿，看着眼下这门「一垒打二垒打 + 真人电影」的生意，心想：喂，我们得干迪士尼该干的事啊。——是啊。所以当初把艾斯纳和威尔斯请进来时，交易的一部分就是罗伊让他们承诺不彻底砍掉动画。然后他还让他们任命他——罗伊——为动画部门的董事长，向掌管全部制片业务的卡曾伯格之下汇报。——好。那我们把镜头闪回到迈克尔和弗兰克接手的那天。在那之前的 13 年里都发生了什么？

[24:53]

Disney Animation had only released three movies from 1971 to 1984.And they had a film called The Black Cauldron in development for nearly a decade.Yeah. Brutal.And morale is low.There's even a sense by the current animators on staff that they weren't making anything as good as what the company used to make.And this is when all that young talent that's coming in from CalArts, Disney's either firing or they're leaving because they're just like, hey, this place is cooked.Yes. Okay. So we brought up Jeffrey Katzenberg.I was having breakfast with Jeffrey to prep for this episode.And he told me this story where Michael calls Jeffrey into his office on his first day.And this is before animation had been moved out to Glendale.So he's still pointing down at the original animation building.And he points to the ink and paint door.And Michael says to Jeffrey, do you know what they do down there?

迪士尼动画从 1971 年到 1984 年只上映了三部电影。而且有一部叫《黑神锅传奇》（The Black Cauldron）的片子在开发中拖了将近十年。——是啊，惨烈。——士气很低。在职的动画师里甚至弥漫着一种感觉：他们做不出公司过去那种水准的东西。也正是在这个时候，所有从 CalArts 出来的年轻人才，要么被迪士尼开掉，要么自己走人，因为他们觉得：嘿，这地方没救了。——是的。好，我们刚提到了杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格。为了准备这期节目，我跟杰弗瑞吃了顿早饭。他给我讲了这么个故事：迈克尔在上任第一天把杰弗瑞叫进办公室。这时动画部门还没搬去格伦代尔，所以迈克尔还能指着楼下原来那栋动画大楼。他指着「上色描线」（ink and paint）那扇门，对杰弗瑞说：你知道他们在下面干什么吗？

[25:42]

And Jeffrey goes, no.Because, you know, Jeffrey's background is live action, paramount stuff with Michael.And Michael says, neither do I.He goes, that's where they made the animated movies.And that's your problem.And so Jeffrey, like Michael, doesn't know anything about animation.The animators, when he sort of gets in there and he says, okay, I'm the boss now, start looking at this invasion from Hollywood.I mean, Disney always existed outside the realm of Hollywood doing their own thing.And now you've got effectively the suits coming into a culture that is like a bunch of wackadoos.I mean, it is like the most fun, crazy place in animation.And this was quite the clash at first.Yep.But at some point, and I don't know, was it Katzenberg or was it Eisner and Wells who realized like, hey, there actually is an opportunity here.Well, it was both of them.And it would take a third guy.And that guy is Peter Schneider.Yes.So his quote when accepting the job is, I knew I could do no worse than the Black Cauldron.You can't fall off the first floor.That's great.

杰弗瑞说：不知道。因为杰弗瑞的背景是真人电影，是跟迈克尔一起在派拉蒙干的那套。迈克尔说：我也不知道。他接着说：那就是他们做动画电影的地方。而那是你的麻烦。——所以杰弗瑞和迈克尔一样，对动画一无所知。而那些动画师，当他大摇大摆进去说「好了，现在我是老板」的时候，开始把这看成一场来自好莱坞的入侵。我是说，迪士尼一直都活在好莱坞的圈子之外，自己干自己的。现在等于是一群「西装革履的人」闯进了一个全是怪咖的文化里。那真的是动画界最好玩、最疯的地方。一开始这冲突相当激烈。——对。——但在某个时点，我不确定，是卡曾伯格还是艾斯纳和威尔斯意识到：嘿，这里其实是有机会的？——两边都有。而且这还需要第三个人。这个人是彼得·施耐德（Peter Schneider）。——对。他接受这份工作时说的那句话是：我知道我不可能干得比《黑神锅传奇》更差。你没法从一楼摔下去。——太妙了。

[26:51] David Rosenthal

So Peter and Jeffrey come in and they start making changes.And Peter had this license to like examine everything.He's not afraid to break any process.So he starts saying, why do we use this type of paint?

于是彼得和杰弗瑞进来，开始做改变。彼得拿到了一张「什么都可以查」的许可证。他不怕打破任何流程。所以他开始问：我们为什么要用这种颜料？

[27:04]

Why do we make our own paint?Why do we use this style of animation pegs?Is there a better style?Why aren't we using computers?It seems like that could really help us.It sends a cultural message here in 84, 85, 86 that things are really changing.And all the way from the top, we are trying to get better.We want to make something great.We want to make great films.And we want to debate each other over how good of an idea things are.We want to iterate all in service of making a great film.But this is exactly what they needed.New blood, a complete shakeup.There was good talent there, but they were just sort of like wasting around not being led at all.And there was this sort of dichotomy where the old guard was stuck in their ways.And the young people who came in with all these fresh ideas were falling on deaf ears.And they'd never been part of anything successful.So they sort of didn't know what success looked like or felt like.So they slowly start to turn it around in animation.You know, at first with films like The Great Mouse Detective in 1986, nothing to write home about.They did Oliver and Company in 1988.That gets a little bit more press.There's people sort of saying, hey, look, Disney animation can make good things that are commercially successful.

我们为什么要自己做颜料？我们为什么要用这种样式的动画定位尺（pegs）？有没有更好的？我们为什么不用计算机？看起来那能帮上大忙啊。——这在 1984、85、86 年传递出一个文化信号：事情真的在变。而且是自上而下地变——我们在努力变得更好。我们想做出伟大的东西。我们想做出伟大的电影。我们想为「这个点子到底有多好」互相辩论。我们想不断迭代，一切都为了做出一部伟大的电影。——但这恰恰是他们需要的：新血，彻底的洗牌。那里本来就有好的人才，只是没人带，白白荒废着。而且当时有一种割裂：老一辈固守自己的老一套，而带着新想法进来的年轻人说了没人听。而且这些年轻人从没参与过任何成功的项目，所以他们其实也不知道成功长什么样、是什么感觉。——所以动画这块慢慢开始扭转。一开始是 1986 年的《妙妙探》（The Great Mouse Detective）这类片子，没什么值得夸的。1988 年他们做了《奥丽华历险记》（Oliver & Company），这部得到的关注多了一些。开始有人说：嘿，你看，迪士尼动画能做出既好又卖座的东西。

[28:15]

But then the big idea, the crazy one that really worked, was to refine the formula of the Disney animated movie and make them musicals.Yes.These are going to be Broadway musicals, but animated.Yes.We're going to turn these things from cartoons with music to musicals that are cartoons.And it makes all the difference in the world.From story arc to the type of music.I mean, Snow White had some really catchy tunes.Whistle while you work.Hi-ho, blah-blah, yeah, yeah.But they weren't musicals.No.And they didn't follow the sort of musical stage performance story structure.So, Jeffrey Katzenberg recruits a guy named Howard Ashman.Yes.Interestingly introduced by David Geffen.I was going to say, yeah, David Geffen connects them, right?

但真正奏效的那个大主意、那个疯狂的主意，是把迪士尼动画电影的配方重做一遍——把它们做成音乐剧。——对。这些将是百老汇音乐剧，只不过是动画版的。——是的。我们要把它们从「带音乐的卡通」变成「本身就是卡通的音乐剧」。这带来了天壤之别。从故事结构到音乐类型，全都变了。我是说，《白雪公主》里也有几首特别上口的曲子——「吹着口哨干活」、「嗨嗬嗨嗬」什么的，对对对——但它们不是音乐剧。——不是。——它们也不遵循音乐剧舞台演出的那种故事结构。所以，杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格招来了一个人，叫霍华德·阿什曼（Howard Ashman）。——对。有意思的是，是大卫·格芬（David Geffen）介绍的。——我正想说，是格芬牵的线，对吧？

[29:03]

Yes.Howard, when he hears the word Disney, instantly says, I want to work in animation.I feel there is a connection between animation and musical theater.And I don't think this was obvious to anyone else.This is like a unique Howard insight.So, Howard brings along Alan Menken.Composer Alan Menken.The two of them had done Little Shop of Horrors together.And they hit the ground running.They come into Disney animation.And the first film that they work on together is The Little Mermaid.Yeah.These guys are geniuses.And we really started to dig into the question of like the Disney Renaissance.Who was responsible?

对。霍华德一听到「迪士尼」这个词，立刻说：我想做动画。我觉得动画和音乐剧之间存在某种连接。——而我认为这一点在当时对别人来说并不显然。这是霍华德独有的洞见。——所以霍华德把艾伦·门肯（Alan Menken）也带来了。作曲家艾伦·门肯。他俩之前一起做过《恐怖小店》（Little Shop of Horrors）。他们一进迪士尼动画就全速开跑。他们合作的第一部电影就是《小美人鱼》。——是啊，这俩人是天才。——我们真的很想深挖这个问题：所谓「迪士尼文艺复兴」，到底是谁的功劳？

[29:41] David Rosenthal

Who created these incredible movies and totally turned around Disney?It's these guys.Yeah.They weren't the original story pitch.No.And they weren't the executives.But they brought the magic.So, Howard has this great quote where he says, well, in every great Broadway musical, the third song, the leading lady goes and she sits on something.Might be a rock.Might be a trash can.And she sings a song to the world telling the audience what she wants.If she could only have this thing in life.And then the whole rest of the film, we root for them.That is the entire crux of the play is what does the leading lady want?

是谁创造了这些了不起的电影、把迪士尼彻底扭转过来的？就是这几个人。——是啊。——他们不是最初提出故事创意的人。——不是。——他们也不是高管。但他们带来了魔法。霍华德有一段很棒的话，他说：在每一部伟大的百老汇音乐剧里，第三首歌，女主角会走过去，坐在某个东西上——可能是一块石头，也可能是一个垃圾桶——然后她对着这个世界唱一首歌，告诉观众她想要什么。「只要我这辈子能得到这样东西就好了。」然后整部戏剩下的部分，我们都在为她加油。整出戏的关键就在于：女主角到底想要什么？

[30:15] David Rosenthal

And we hope that she gets there.And he's like, I just realized we could do that in Little Mermaid.So, Part of Your World is just the setup song for Ariel sitting there explaining to everyone, I just want to go where the people are.I want to see them dancing.Walking around on what do you call them?

而我们希望她能得到。他说：我忽然意识到，我们可以在《小美人鱼》里这么干。所以《Part of Your World》（成为你世界的一部分）就是那首铺垫的歌——爱丽儿坐在那儿向所有人解释：我只想去有人的地方。我想看他们跳舞，看他们用那个……那玩意儿叫什么来着？

[30:31] David Rosenthal

Oh, feet.And this amazing sort of like lyrical explanation of what she feels as a character that ends up kind of carrying the whole movie.Howard is also the one who says, hey, that little crab, should we make him Jamaican?

哦，脚。——然后是这样一段极为动人的、诗一般的自白，讲清了她作为一个角色的感受，而这段最后几乎撑起了整部电影。霍华德还是那个说「嘿，那只小螃蟹，我们要不要把他做成牙买加人？」的人。

[30:43] Ben Gilbert

Yep.And that leads to the whole song, Under the Sea.I mean, these are like formative songs that are in, at least, David, you and my, our generation's head forever.And why we watch the films, I'm sure, a million times when we were kids.Yep.And why they survive.I mean, my girls are watching these movies today.So, Little Mermaid comes out in 1989.It's a classic.But it's not like it blew the doors off at the box office.And it had a pretty big budget.Animation grew its headcount from that low when it was left for dead of 150 people to 550 people.And here's a great quote from our friend Ben Cohen at the Wall Street Journal in a piece that he wrote.Once upon a time, Disney movies got beat at the box office by rom-coms.The Little Mermaid made less money than when Harry met Sally in 1989.Only when it came out on home video in 1990 and kids could watch VHS tapes of The Little Mermaid anytime they wanted did the iconic children's movie become truly massive.So, if you're just looking at box office, you're kind of like, okay, I see green shoots here.We're really on to something.People love this, but it's not like it magically made the company.It's not like we just generated a bunch of profits.Which, you know, look, trust in Disney animation had eroded, right?

对。而这直接带出了《Under the Sea》那整首歌。我是说，这些歌是塑造性的，至少大卫，在你我这一代人的脑子里是永远抹不掉的。我敢肯定，这也是我们小时候能把这些片子看上一百万遍的原因。——对。也是它们能活下来的原因。我是说，我的女儿们今天还在看这些电影。所以，《小美人鱼》1989 年上映，是一部经典。但它在票房上并没有一炮惊天。而且它的预算相当高。动画部门的人数从当年被判死刑时的低点 150 人，一路涨到了 550 人。这里有一段我们的朋友、《华尔街日报》的本·科恩（Ben Cohen）在一篇文章里写的很棒的话：「曾几何时，迪士尼电影在票房上会被浪漫喜剧打败。1989 年，《小美人鱼》的票房不如《当哈利遇上莎莉》。直到 1990 年它发行家庭录像带，孩子们随时想看就能看《小美人鱼》的 VHS 带子，这部标志性的儿童电影才真正变成了庞然大物。」所以如果你只看票房，你的感觉大概是：好吧，我看到一点绿芽了，我们确实摸到了什么门道，大家喜欢这个，但它并没有神奇地把这家公司救活，也不是说我们凭它就赚出了一大堆利润。——不过说实话，人们对迪士尼动画的信任已经被侵蚀了，对吧？

[32:00] Ben Gilbert

Like, people were used to crap coming out of the studio.So, they do Rescuers Down Under in 1990.It's fine, but it's not like one of the great Disney Renaissance films the way that Little Mermaid and the one we're about to talk about.And then Beauty and the Beast.I know Lion King's bigger, but, like, Beauty and the Beast is my favorite of these movies.It was my first movie in theaters.Oh, wow.And this is another Howard Ashman special.Yep, yep.It's so good.Yes.So, Beauty and the Beast builds on the momentum of the team that trusts each other, the new style of musicals as animation.This one actually lights up the box office.$330 million gross at the box office on a $25 million production budget.Man.Disney animation is back.They do it again the next year.I'm telling you, year after year after year.1992 with Aladdin.Yep.Box office.$500 million is what I saw, right?

就是说，大家已经习惯了这家工作室出烂片。所以他们 1990 年做了《救难小英雄澳洲历险记》（The Rescuers Down Under）。还行，但它算不上《小美人鱼》和我们接下来要讲的那部那种「迪士尼文艺复兴」代表作。——然后是《美女与野兽》。我知道《狮子王》更大，但《美女与野兽》是我最喜欢的一部。它是我人生中在影院看的第一部电影。——哦，哇。——而这又是霍华德·阿什曼的一部代表作。——对，对。——太好看了。——是的。所以《美女与野兽》建立在一个彼此信任的团队所积累的势能之上，也建立在「动画即音乐剧」的新形式之上。这一部真的把票房点燃了：全球票房 3.3 亿美元，制作预算只有 2500 万美元。——天哪。——迪士尼动画回来了。而且他们第二年又来了一次。我告诉你，是一年接一年接一年。1992 年是《阿拉丁》。——对。票房——我看到的数字是 5 亿美元，对吧？

[32:58]

That's right.Half a billion.On a $28 million production budget.And they're pulling out the stops on sort of the Disney stars at this point.They're bringing in Robin Williams to be the genie.From Good Morning Vietnam to the genie.That's right.And then they do it again two years later with The Lion King, 1994.This time a little bit bigger production budget.It's $45 million.It's very sophisticated animation.Yeah, yeah, yeah.You've got James Earl Jones.How much money did this thing make?

没错。五亿美元。制作预算 2800 万美元。而且到这个阶段，他们在「迪士尼式明星」上开始下本钱了。他们请来罗宾·威廉姆斯配神灯精灵。——从《早安越南》到神灯精灵。——没错。然后两年后他们又做了一次：1994 年的《狮子王》。这回制作预算稍微大一点，4500 万美元。动画非常精细复杂。——对对对。——还请了詹姆斯·厄尔·琼斯（James Earl Jones）。——这部片子赚了多少钱？

[33:26]

This brings in $750 million.Yeah.Unprecedented at the time.The most successful, traditionally animated, hand-drawn film in history.In history.Michael Eisner actually announces then they are going to build a new animation building and bring all of the animators back onto the Disney lot.Yes, back to Burbank.Which, as a fun little aside, Disneyland, when it was originally supposed to be like a little 15-acre park or something right next to the Disney lot before it became a much bigger project, this is actually the plot of land.Where the new animation building is today.So great.So great.So that's the Disney renaissance.So it's interesting, right?

它拿下了 7.5 亿美元。——是啊。在当时是前所未有的。——是史上最成功的传统手绘动画电影。——史上第一。——迈克尔·艾斯纳随后宣布，他们要盖一栋新的动画大楼，把所有动画师都接回迪士尼片厂。——是的，回到伯班克。——顺便说个有意思的小插曲：迪士尼乐园最初的设想只是紧挨着迪士尼片厂的一个 15 英亩左右的小乐园，后来才变成一个大得多的项目——而当年设想的那块地，正是今天新动画大楼所在的位置。——太妙了。——太妙了。——这就是迪士尼文艺复兴。——不过这里有个有意思的地方，对吧？

[34:08] David Rosenthal

Little Mermaid cost $40 million to make.And then Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin were cheaper.And you said like, oh, production budgets balloon back up with Lion King, but only to $45 million.How are they making these so cheap?

《小美人鱼》的制作成本是 4000 万美元。而《美女与野兽》和《阿拉丁》反而更便宜。你刚才说，到《狮子王》制作预算又鼓回去了，但也才 4500 万美元。他们是怎么把这些片子做得这么便宜的？

[34:21] Ben Gilbert

Yes.So the process of actually doing the hand-drawn animation, and it all was still hand-drawn in this era, had progressed from the actual inking and painting to kind of skipping the inking step because they use xerography.So you could directly transfer the paper sketches onto the transparent celluloid for each frame so that you can photograph it.But the thing that Disney does here during the renaissance films is something called CAPS.Starting in 1990, the computer animated production system.This was really pushed by Roy E. Disney, who felt this was a big part of his Uncle Walt's legacy, kind of pushing the frontier of technology and how investing in new technology can push the state of the art in storytelling.Computers had advanced a lot by 1990, and so they got to thinking, why are we still using physical paint to color in the lines on every single one of these hand-drawn frames?

是这样。手绘动画的实际制作流程——这个年代仍然全部是手绘的——已经从原来的「描线加上色」进化到基本可以跳过描线这一步了，因为他们用了静电复印术（xerography）。这样就能把纸上的草图直接转印到每一帧的透明赛璐珞片上，然后拍摄。但迪士尼在文艺复兴这批片子上做的一件事，叫 CAPS。从 1990 年开始，全称是计算机动画制作系统（computer animated production system）。这件事的主要推手是罗伊·E·迪士尼，他认为这正是他伯父沃尔特留下的重要遗产的一部分——不断推动技术前沿，以及「投资新技术如何能推高讲故事的技艺上限」这个理念。到 1990 年，计算机已经进步了很多，于是他们开始想：我们为什么还在用实体颜料，去给每一张手绘帧的线条里填色？

[35:19] Ben Gilbert

Also, multi-plane cameras were really, really expensive to operate.So they started cheaping out in the dark times where rather than photographing really complicated, you know, six-plane animation, they would just kind of slap one animation cell down, put a background underneath it, photograph it, and move on to the next one.And so they invested $10 million in fixed costs into software that could do two things.One was effectively Microsoft Paint for 2D animation, where you could look at all the lines on a computer, you could select a color, you could bring over your little paint tool, and dump your bucket of color into an enclosed area.It sounds like I'm describing something that you're like, yes, we've all used MS Paint.But this was rocket science at the time.This was really cool.And meant that not only do you not have to do inking anymore, you don't do painting either.And on top of that, what Caps was, was a super-duper multi-plane camera that could do an unlimited number of planes, not just limited to whatever you could actually do in Walt's era.So you could do it faster and cheaper without actually operating the multi-plane camera.So the Little Mermaid, which only had three multi-plane shots because it was before Caps, by the time you get to the Lion King, it had hundreds.

还有，多平面摄影机（multi-plane camera）的操作成本真的非常非常高。所以在那些黑暗年代里他们开始偷工减料：与其去拍那种复杂的六层多平面动画，他们干脆把一张赛璐珞片往下一拍，底下垫一张背景，拍完就下一张。于是他们投了 1000 万美元的固定成本去开发一套软件，这套软件能干两件事。第一件，本质上就是「2D 动画版的 Microsoft 画图」：你可以在电脑上看到所有线条，选一个颜色，把小油漆桶工具拖过来，往一个封闭区域里一倒。听起来我像是在描述一个大家都会说「是啊，我们都用过 MS 画图」的东西。但在当时这是火箭科学，是真的酷。这意味着不仅描线不用做了，连上色也不用做了。除此之外，CAPS 还是一台「超级加强版多平面摄影机」，能做无限多的图层，不再受限于沃尔特那个年代物理上能做到的层数。所以你能更快、更便宜地做到这些，而且不用真的去操作那台多平面摄影机。所以《小美人鱼》因为在 CAPS 之前，只有三个多平面镜头；等到《狮子王》时，已经有几百个了。

[36:33] Ben Gilbert

So it's better, it's faster, and it keeps the budget down.Yeah, it seems odd that Disney, a media company, would develop this computer software technology in-house.Yes, they relied on a partner for that who was getting really, really good at early computer graphics, Pixar.Yeah.Well, put a pin in that.Yes.And one other just fun, just because this is cool nerdy stuff, the scene in Beauty and the Beast,that is the ballroom dancing scene that has this crazy cool camera pan.It's a quick shot, but it's one of the most memorable shots of the whole film.The background of that was actually 3D rendered using Pixar software.Oh, cool.And then they composited, using Caps, a 2D hand-drawn bell and the beast dancing.And that is the first time they used any 3D animation in any Disney films.Oh, that's so cool.Yeah.And if you go back and watch it, you're like, whoa, yeah, the background is computer generated.Yeah.Oh, that's awesome.Okay.So in the back of all these Disney Renaissance animated hits, the flywheel is soaring again at Disney.I mean, really for the first time since Walt died, the core animated IP at the center of the company is back.It's inspiring new generations of children, their parents.

所以它更好、更快，还把预算压住了。——是啊，不过挺奇怪的：迪士尼是一家媒体公司，居然会自己在内部开发这种计算机软件技术。——是的，这方面他们依赖了一个合作方——一家在早期计算机图形上做得越来越、越来越好的公司：皮克斯（Pixar）。——是啊。——这个先埋个伏笔。——好。——还有一件很有意思的事，纯粹因为这是很酷的极客细节：《美女与野兽》里那场舞厅共舞的戏，有一个特别酷炫的镜头运动。它只是一个很快的镜头，但却是全片最令人难忘的镜头之一。那个镜头的背景其实是用皮克斯的软件做的 3D 渲染。——哦，酷。——然后他们再用 CAPS 把手绘的 2D 贝儿和野兽合成上去跳舞。那是迪士尼电影里第一次用到任何 3D 动画。——哦，太酷了。——是啊。你回头再看那一段，会觉得：哇，对，这个背景是计算机生成的。——是啊。哦，太棒了。好。所以在这一连串迪士尼文艺复兴动画大片的背后，迪士尼的飞轮又一次飞起来了。我是说，这真的是沃尔特去世以来的第一次——公司正中心那些核心的动画 IP 回来了，它在激励新一代的孩子，以及他们的父母。

[37:56] David Rosenthal

And Eisner and Wills not only embrace all of it, they extend the flywheel even further.So they add three new incredible extensions to the Disney business model,all based on these characters and stories and this timeless IP that Disney animation is once again creating.So the first, home video.Man, this is a banger.So the Disney vault already existed.Disney would take their classic movies like Snow White or Cinderella and re-release them in theaters every seven years or soto get a new generation of children exposed.Which was the only way to watch movies.Right.My brain sort of can't understand this since home video has existed my entire life.No Disney Plus back then, baby.Nope.And until 1985, there was no way to watch a Disney film outside of a theater.Yep.Yep.So Eisner and Wills and Katzberg, they're like, well, we can do the same thing with home video.You know, VHS exists now.It's a big thing.You know, it's high penetration in U.S. households.None of the old people at Disney want to do it.Roy is opposed.The family's opposed.It's heresy.It's heresy.Michael has to convene the whole Disney family and get their approval to release Pinocchioas the first of the classics that they're going to put on VHS here in 1985.

而艾斯纳和威尔斯不仅全盘拥抱了这一切，他们还把飞轮进一步延伸了出去。他们给迪士尼的商业模式加了三个了不起的新延伸，全都建立在迪士尼动画重新创造出来的这些角色、故事和这些不朽 IP 之上。第一个是家庭录像（home video）。天哪，这一招太狠了。「迪士尼片库」（the Disney vault）本来就已经存在：迪士尼会把《白雪公主》《灰姑娘》这样的经典片每隔七年左右重新在影院上映一次，让新一代孩子接触到它们。——因为那是当时看电影唯一的方式。——对。——家庭录像在我整个人生里一直都存在，所以我脑子有点无法理解那种状态。——当年可没有 Disney+，宝贝。——没有。而在 1985 年之前，除了影院你没有任何办法看到迪士尼电影。——对，对。所以艾斯纳、威尔斯和卡曾伯格心想：那我们在家庭录像上也可以照做一遍啊。VHS 现在有了，是个大东西，在美国家庭里的渗透率很高。可迪士尼里的老人们没一个想干这事。罗伊反对。整个家族反对。——这是异端邪说。——就是异端邪说。迈克尔不得不把整个迪士尼家族召集起来，取得他们的批准，才在 1985 年把《木偶奇遇记》（Pinocchio）作为第一部推上 VHS 的经典片。

[39:12] David Rosenthal

And they're starting low stakes.I mean, Pinocchio has already been re-released in theaters five times.Yep.Seven years apart.You would think you're not cannibalizing much at this point on the sixth re-release.Yes, of Pinocchio.So they agree to a very limited 1.7 million unit run of VHS of Pinocchio priced at the veryhigh $29.95 at retail per copy.It sells out like instantaneously.So that's $50 million in gross merchandise sales, basically zero incremental productioncosts except for the couple bucks of printing the cassette tapes.And then they do it the next year with Cinderella, which proves the exact same thing.So they do a theatrical re-release on schedule of Cinderella, does $34 million in box officerevenue, and then they put out the VHS home video.Six million units.So between the two of them, that is $200 million in gross revenue from Cinderella.Oh, man.I mean, it's basically another box office smash, like, for free that they're getting here.Yeah.So it's this crazy thing they discovered where it seems to not hurt anything, not dampenany demand, because Michael Eisner would sort of later famously point out, people buy thesetapes, but they break, they lose them.Right, right.It doesn't make people any less excited to go to the theater six, seven years later.

而且他们是从低风险的地方开始的。我是说，《木偶奇遇记》已经在影院重映过五次了。——对，每隔七年一次。——你会觉得，到第六次重映了，这时候也没多少可以自我蚕食的了。——是的，《木偶奇遇记》就是这样。所以他们同意了一个非常有限的发行量：170 万盘《木偶奇遇记》VHS，零售定价高达 29.95 美元一盘。结果几乎是瞬间售罄。也就是 5000 万美元的商品销售总额，而增量生产成本基本为零——除了印制磁带的那几块钱。然后第二年他们用《灰姑娘》又做了一次，结果完全印证了同一件事。他们按原计划把《灰姑娘》重新搬上院线，拿到 3400 万美元票房，然后再推出 VHS 家庭录像带，卖了 600 万盘。所以这两项加起来，《灰姑娘》带来了 2 亿美元的总收入。——天哪。我是说，这基本上等于白得了另一部票房大片。——是啊。所以他们发现了这件疯狂的事：它似乎不会伤害任何东西，不会压低任何需求。因为迈克尔·艾斯纳后来有句著名的说法：人们买了这些带子，但带子会坏，人们也会把它弄丢。——对，对。——它不会让人们在六七年后少一分去影院的兴奋。

[40:41]

You know what kids are really good at?Losing VHS tapes.Right.It's not like, oh, you're permanently destroying an asset now that those tapes exist in the world.No.It only increases the demand for more Cinderella now that the tapes are out.This is the core philosophy behind how Walt Disney's flywheel business strategy works.I had read that Disney was keeping, like, between $17 to $20 a pop in profits per VHS tapethat they were selling, because I think they had so much leverage over the retailers.So home video quickly becomes a billion dollar business for the Walt Disney company.It's the second biggest profit center for the whole company after the theme parks.And then that's just re-releasing the classics.Then they start doing home video of the new hits that are coming out.And like, man, does that blow the doors off.Having a home video release channel instantly makes whatever you want to spend on animationworth it.Yes.It is this sudden renewed focus on animation because they realize, oh my God, there's away to get value out of this.Yes.So the numbers on this.Aladdin sells 30 million VHS tapes in 1993.So that's $900 million in sales.Yeah, in sales.Sales of tapes.Yeah, yeah.And then The Lion King eclipses it in 1995 when it comes out on VHS with 32 million units.

你知道小孩最擅长什么吗？把 VHS 带子弄丢。——对。——并不是说这些带子一进入世界，你就永久性地毁掉了一项资产。——不是。带子出来之后，反而只会让人们对更多《灰姑娘》的需求变得更大。这正是华特·迪士尼那套飞轮商业战略之所以成立的核心哲学。——我读到过，迪士尼每卖出一盘 VHS，能留下大约 17 到 20 美元的利润，我想是因为他们对零售商有极强的议价权。——所以家庭录像很快变成了华特迪士尼公司一门十亿美元级的生意。它是继主题乐园之后，全公司第二大的利润中心。而这还只是重映经典片。接着他们开始给刚上映的新片做家庭录像。老天，那才叫炸裂。——一旦你有了家庭录像这个发行渠道，你在动画上想花多少钱都立刻变得值了。——是的。正是这一点让他们突然重新聚焦动画，因为他们意识到：我的天，原来有办法把这里面的价值榨出来。——是的。说数字吧：《阿拉丁》1993 年卖了 3000 万盘 VHS，也就是 9 亿美元的销售额。——对，销售额。——卖带子的销售额。——对对。——然后 1995 年《狮子王》推出 VHS 时超越了它，卖了 3200 万盘。

[42:09]

The best selling VHS of all time period in history ever.That's a billion dollars of tapes of The Lion King sold.Yes.Disney is getting roughly 50% or greater cash flow margin out of that.You should think each of those is half a billion dollars in Disney's bank account.Because these films are already quite profitable from the box office because the budgets arelow and the box office is super high.I mean, Lion King is just ridiculous, right?

是有史以来、历史上、永远的 VHS 销量冠军。——那就是十亿美元的《狮子王》录像带销售额。——是的。而迪士尼从中拿到的现金流利润率大概在 50% 或更高。你可以认为，这里面每一部都往迪士尼的银行账户里放进了五亿美元。——因为这些片子光靠票房本身就已经相当赚钱了，预算低、票房极高。我是说，《狮子王》简直离谱，对吧？

[42:37]

Like $750 million at box office on a $45 million production.So let's say, what does Disney make?$300 million in cash flow out of that theatrical?Minus distribution and marketing expenses.I don't know, $250?

4500 万美元制作成本，换来 7.5 亿美元票房。那我们算算，迪士尼从这轮院线里能拿到多少？3 亿美元现金流？再扣掉发行和营销费用。我不知道，2.5 亿？

[42:52]

$250?Yeah, okay.Sure.$250.Out of half a billion from home video, you're at three quarters of a billion in cash outof The Lion King within a year of release.And then, well, we'll get to what else comes out of The Lion King in a second.And I don't think there was much back end at that point for any of the actors.So I think this is literally just going to Disney.No, this is also why it fits so great with Eisner's philosophy.Because even though they were signing stars to be voice actors, like Robin Williams isthe genie, et cetera, et cetera, they weren't getting paid much.So these are very different deals, especially back then for those actors than for the liveaction films that were starting to get expensive and actors were making real money out of.Yep.So that's home video.Next, they launched Disney retail stores across the country.That's right.Do you remember these?

2.5 亿？——对，好，就算 2.5 亿。——再加上家庭录像的 5 亿，也就是说《狮子王》在上映后一年之内就产出了 7.5 亿美元现金。而且，稍后我们还会讲到《狮子王》还带来了什么别的东西。——而且我认为那个时候，任何演员基本都没有什么后端分成。所以我觉得这些钱是实打实全进迪士尼口袋的。——对，这也正是它跟艾斯纳的理念契合得这么好的原因。因为尽管他们请了明星来配音，比如罗宾·威廉姆斯演神灯精灵等等，但这些人拿的钱并不多。所以，尤其在当年，这些配音合同跟真人电影那边的合同是完全不同的两回事——真人电影的成本已经开始变贵，演员是真能从中赚到大钱的。——对。这是家庭录像。接下来，他们在全国开出了迪士尼零售店。——没错。你还记得这些店吗？

[43:42]

I spent so many weekends at the mall when I was a kid in Disney retail stores.Plastered with Disney stuff.Giant piles of stuffed animals.It was a hallucinogenic experience to go in there.It was peak 1990s.Yes.So they build more than 750 Disney stores, retail stores in basically every mall in America,which now between home video, where for the first time you've got kids and families watchingthese movies over and over and over again at home.And on the weekends, these American families, they go to the mall, they go to the Disney store,they buy the merch, they revel in all this Disney.It is back to the peak of Disney under Walt, where it just takes over America, basically.Yep.I bet people of our generation have a unique relationship with Disney because of this period,because we were there in such a heyday.I bet people that are 10, 15 years older than us don't have the same Disney relationshipsince they were sort of grownups by the time the Eisner era hit.Yeah.I mean, it was the dark period when they were children.Yes.And you got to get children to make this work.Yep.And then they pass it on to their children and et cetera, et cetera.So, okay.Home video, Disney retail, and then three, Broadway.

我小时候在商场里的迪士尼零售店泡过无数个周末。——满墙满架的迪士尼周边。——成堆成山的毛绒玩具。走进去简直像一场致幻体验。——那是 90 年代的巅峰。——是的。所以他们开了超过 750 家迪士尼零售店，几乎覆盖了美国的每一个商场。而与此同时，靠着家庭录像，孩子和家庭第一次能在家里把这些电影一遍又一遍又一遍地看。到了周末，这些美国家庭去商场，去迪士尼商店，买周边，沉浸在满满的迪士尼里。这基本上回到了沃尔特时代迪士尼的巅峰——它席卷整个美国。——对。我打赌，我们这一代人跟迪士尼的关系是独特的，就是因为这段时期，因为我们正好赶上了这样一个鼎盛期。我打赌，比我们大十岁十五岁的人跟迪士尼就没有同样的关系，因为艾斯纳时代到来时他们已经算成年人了。——是啊。他们当孩子的时候，正好是那个黑暗期。——对。而你必须抓住孩子，这套模式才成立。——对。然后他们再传给自己的孩子，如此循环。好，那么：家庭录像、迪士尼零售，第三个是百老汇。

[45:04] David Rosenthal

This is an absolute masterstroke.When we first started the research, we were like, ah, yeah, yeah, we'll put a thing aboutthe Lion King, the musical in there and Broadway.They do that.You know, great.It's a thing that Eisner and team do in the 90s.Right.Oh, it must be like Disney on ice.Some random extension that I'm not really sure how much it contributed, but cool thatthey did that and very artistic of them.Okay.So first they do Beauty and the Beast.That's a big success on Broadway.They end up buying the new Amsterdam theater.Disney owns that in New York now.Then they put on the Lion King musical.Which is spectacular.Oh, amazing.I haven't been in, I don't know, 15 years or something, but I have a visceral memory ofthe parade of animals walking down the aisle and just how uniquely they did the costumedesigns with the faces of the animals that sort of hover above their heads.It's art.It's back to Walt Disney.It's art and commerce.Like, right.Yes.Absolute art.And it becomes the highest grossing Broadway show in history.It's still running today.And if you add up gross on Broadway over the past 30 years, plus the touring company, theLion King musical has grossed over $11 billion in total revenue in its run, which I think

这一手是绝对的神来之笔。我们刚开始做资料时还想：啊，行吧，我们会在里面提一句《狮子王》音乐剧和百老汇。他们确实做了这事，挺好的，是艾斯纳团队在 90 年代做的一件事。——对。哦，那大概就跟「迪士尼冰上秀」差不多吧，一个我也说不清贡献了多少的随机延伸，但他们做了挺好，还挺有艺术追求的。——好。他们先做的是《美女与野兽》，在百老汇大获成功。他们最后买下了新阿姆斯特丹剧院（New Amsterdam Theatre），现在纽约那家剧院归迪士尼所有。然后他们推出了《狮子王》音乐剧。——那真是叹为观止。——哦，太惊人了。我大概有十五年没去看了，但我对那段动物游行沿着过道走下来的画面有极强的身体记忆，还有他们那种独一无二的服装设计——动物的脸像是悬浮在演员头顶上方。那是艺术。——那是回到了华特·迪士尼。艺术与商业。就像，对吧。——是的，绝对的艺术。——而它成了百老汇史上票房最高的演出，至今仍在上演。如果你把过去 30 年百老汇的总票房加上巡演公司的收入，《狮子王》音乐剧的总收入已经超过 110 亿美元，我认为这……

[46:13] David Rosenthal

makes it the single highest grossing entertainment product in history, in any medium, film, music,TV, video games, other Broadway shows.What?Lion King the musical is the highest grossing piece of entertainment ever created in history.Of any medium, the highest grossing is a Broadway musical?

……使它成为史上单体票房最高的娱乐产品，跨所有媒介——电影、音乐、电视、电子游戏、其他百老汇演出。——什么？——《狮子王》音乐剧是人类历史上创造出的、收入最高的一件娱乐作品。——在所有媒介里，收入最高的是一部百老汇音乐剧？

[46:35]

Yep.Of a single, like non-episodic, but like a single piece of media, a single story concept.Lion King the musical.How is it $11 billion?Because even the biggest box office films do $2.8, $2.9 billion.I mean, that's Avatar, that's Avengers Endgame.And then if you were to add like an entire home video on top of that, we already saidthe Lion King home video was a billion.Yeah, you double it, maybe more.Yeah.How do they get to $11 for a Broadway musical?

对。是指单一的、非连载式的，一件单独的媒介作品、一个单独的故事概念。《狮子王》音乐剧。——它怎么可能有 110 亿美元？因为就算票房最高的电影也就 28 亿、29 亿美元。我是说，那是《阿凡达》，是《复仇者联盟：终局之战》。——而如果你再把整个家庭录像叠上去，我们刚才说了《狮子王》的家庭录像是十亿美元。——是啊，翻一倍，也许更多。——是啊。一部百老汇音乐剧是怎么做到 110 亿的？

[47:03]

It's been running for 30 years.30 years.And they're packing the house around the world.Traveling show.Pretty high ticket price to go to a musical.It's in London.It's in New York.It's got the traveling company.Wow.Yeah.So even spread out over 30 years, Lion King the musical on average, that means it hasgenerated $350 million in gross revenue for Disney every single year.That is an extra hit movie every year.And they own it outright?

它已经连演 30 年了。——三十年。——而且他们在全世界都是场场爆满。——巡演。——去看音乐剧的票价相当高。——伦敦有，纽约有，还有巡演公司。——哇。——是啊。所以就算摊到 30 年里，《狮子王》音乐剧平均每年也给迪士尼创造了 3.5 亿美元的总收入。那相当于每年多一部卖座电影。——而且是他们完全拥有的？

[47:32]

Yeah.I mean, they have to share theater revenue with, you know, especially the touring companywhen they go to theaters around the world.But that's the same as any movie.It's another movie every year.Wow.$11 billion.Yeah.Fascinating.Absolutely incredible.So Eisner in this era really did crack the extensions of the brand thing.And he also kind of dipped his foot back into traditional marketing more.Didn't they start running a whole bunch of like come to Disneyland commercials?

是的。我是说，他们得跟剧院分票房收入，尤其是巡演公司去全球各地剧院演出的时候。但这跟任何一部电影是一样的。——每年多一部电影。——哇。110 亿美元。——是啊。——太迷人了。——绝对不可思议。所以艾斯纳在这个时代真的把「品牌延伸」这件事给做透了。而且他也重新把脚伸回了传统营销。他们是不是开始投放了大量「来迪士尼乐园吧」那种广告？

[48:01] David Rosenthal

Yes.And like explaining the rides.And I think this is also when they started the campaign where the winning Super Bowl MVPwould always say, I'm going to Disney World right after they won the Super Bowl.Well, so this is the other big, big thing that Michael Eisner does is he transforms the parks.The parks were obviously Walt's genius and part of the original Walt vision and businessmodel for what Disney would become.But they're just theme parks when Michael takes over.Yeah.They're not really resorts.He makes the parks and especially Florida a resort.It goes from, ah, yeah, we got Disney World and we got Epcot and sure, come to Florida.They build the Grand Floridian Hotel.They build the Swan.They build the Dolphin.They start the Vacation Club timeshare program with the Old Key West Resort, which my familywas a member of.And so what did we do every year?

是的。还会介绍各种游乐设施。我想也是在那时候他们开始了那个活动：超级碗的 MVP 在夺冠之后总会说一句「我要去迪士尼世界了」。——那么，迈克尔·艾斯纳做的另一件极其重大的事，就是他改造了乐园。乐园显然是沃尔特的天才之作，是沃尔特最初那套「迪士尼将会变成什么」的愿景和商业模式的一部分。但在迈克尔接手时，它们就只是主题乐园而已。——是啊，还算不上度假区。——他把乐园、尤其是佛罗里达那边，变成了一个度假区（resort）。它从「啊，我们有迪士尼世界，我们还有 EPCOT，来佛罗里达玩吧」升级了。他们建了大佛罗里达酒店（Grand Floridian），建了天鹅酒店（Swan），建了海豚酒店（Dolphin）。他们还用老基韦斯特度假村（Old Key West Resort）启动了「度假俱乐部」分时度假计划——我家就是会员。所以我们每年干什么？

[48:53] David Rosenthal

We went to Walt Disney World every single year.It was a resort.It was a vacation.They add Hollywood Studios.Then they add the Animal Kingdom.They completely transform what a theme park resort is.And the Animal Kingdom in particular is a wild pitch.What if we build an actual animal kingdom with lions and zebras and, you know, the most it'snot it won't feel like a zoo.It'll feel like you're on the African safari when you're out doing it.They changed the park from something that could compete with going to a baseball game on aSaturday to something that could compete with your European five day vacation.Yes.Yes.And they get into all the real estate all around it.All those hotels that they're developing, having Imagineering develop.It's not just Marriott's that they're throwing in there.Right.And with him raising prices, plowing cash into building out the next 10, 15, 20 years of parksand attracting, oh, I'm not going to spend $300 here.I'm going to drop $3,000 here on a family vacation.This starts to become kind of a behemoth business of its own.Totally.I mean, it sets the stage for today.Last year, Disney Parks and Experiences contributed $10 billion in operating profit to Disney.And it starts with this.

我们每一年都去华特迪士尼世界。它是一个度假区，是一次假期。他们加了好莱坞影城（Hollywood Studios），然后又加了动物王国（Animal Kingdom）。他们彻底重新定义了「主题乐园度假区」是什么。而动物王国尤其是一个疯狂的提案：要不我们建一个真的动物王国，有狮子、有斑马，而且它不会让你觉得像动物园，会让你觉得自己真的在非洲野生动物之旅上。——他们把乐园从一个「和周六去看棒球赛竞争」的东西，变成了一个「和你的欧洲五日游竞争」的东西。——是的，是的。而且他们把周边所有的地产也做了起来。他们开发的那些酒店，是让幻想工程（Imagineering）来做的，不是随便扔几家万豪进去。——对。加上他提价、把现金投进未来 10 年、15 年、20 年的乐园建设，吸引的是「我不会在这儿只花 300 美元，我会为一次家庭度假在这儿花 3000 美元」的客人。这本身开始变成一门庞然大物级的生意。——完全是。我是说，它为今天打下了基础。去年，迪士尼「乐园与体验」板块为迪士尼贡献了 100 亿美元的经营利润。而这一切就是从这里开始的。

[50:10] David Rosenthal

Nuts.Now, it's not all sunshine and rainbows on the park side during the Eisner era.Euro Disney.There is Euro Disney, which costs $4 billion to develop and just loses money for years.The sort of glib line that I like about this is it took Disney a decade to figure out thatEuropean parents want to drink wine while their kids run around.There's more to it than that.And also, I'm not sure that Europeans love being called Euro.Yeah.If you live in Paris, you consider yourself French or Parisian.You don't consider yourself Euro.Yeah.So they rename it Disneyland Paris.They make a whole bunch of changes.They eventually right the ship.And there's a global macro thing that changes, too.They sort of opened into a recession.But yeah, that was a disaster for a while.Yeah.Yeah.But that aside, I mean, man, by the time we're in the mid-90s here, Disney and the Eisner-Wells-Katzenbergdream team is just crushing it.Operating profit at the company goes from well under $300 million when they take over in 1984to just under $2 billion a decade later.So almost, what's that, 8x operating profit in a decade.A decade.Wow.I mean, and it had been declining.I mean, it fell 25% in two years before they joined.Yeah.

疯了。——不过在艾斯纳时代，乐园这边也不全是阳光彩虹。欧洲迪士尼。——是有欧洲迪士尼这回事，开发花了 40 亿美元，然后连年亏损。——我喜欢的一句略带油滑的总结是：迪士尼花了十年才搞明白，欧洲父母想在孩子撒欢的时候喝点葡萄酒。——事情当然不止如此。而且我也不太确定欧洲人喜欢被叫做「欧洲人（Euro）」。——是啊。如果你住在巴黎，你会认为自己是法国人或巴黎人，不会认为自己是「Euro」。——是啊。所以他们把它改名叫巴黎迪士尼乐园，做了一大堆改动，最终把船扶正了。而且还有一个全球宏观因素也变了——他们开园时正好撞上一场衰退。但没错，那段时间确实是一场灾难。——是啊，是啊。不过撇开这个不谈，到了 90 年代中期，迪士尼和艾斯纳—威尔斯—卡曾伯格这支梦之队简直是碾压式的表现。公司的经营利润从 1984 年他们接手时的不到 3 亿美元，涨到十年后的接近 20 亿美元。所以差不多是——这是多少倍——十年里经营利润翻了 8 倍。——十年。哇。而且此前它还在下滑，我是说，他们加入前两年里利润跌了 25%。——是啊。

[51:31]

Those three guys didn't just save Disney.Like, they made Disney flourish in a way that Walt only could have dreamed of.It is quite reasonable to say that Disney has never been as successful as they were inthis period from the early to mid-90s.Well, I've got the stat to prove it.So by 1994, Disney's market cap, it's $22 billion, up 10x from when the Eisner crew tookover.And it becomes the highest valued of all the traditional media companies.More valuable than Time Warner.More valuable than Viacom.More valuable than Fox and News Corp.Disney is on top of the world.And it's all about to fall apart.But before we tell that story, now is a great time to thank our new presenting partner, acompany that we are very excited about, Sierra.Yes.We study founders and CEOs of some of the greatest businesses in history.And those folks today are all wrestling with the same question.How do I use AI to grow my business without losing what makes us unique?

这三个人不只是救了迪士尼。他们让迪士尼繁荣到了一个连沃尔特都只敢梦想的程度。要说迪士尼从来没有像 90 年代初到中期这段时间那样成功过，是相当有道理的。——我这儿有数据可以证明。到 1994 年，迪士尼的市值是 220 亿美元，比艾斯纳团队接手时涨了 10 倍。它成为所有传统媒体公司里估值最高的一家。比时代华纳（Time Warner）更值钱，比维亚康姆（Viacom）更值钱，比福克斯和新闻集团（News Corp）更值钱。迪士尼站在了世界之巅。——而这一切马上就要分崩离析了。——但在讲那个故事之前，现在正是感谢我们新冠名合作伙伴的好时机——一家我们非常兴奋的公司，Sierra。——是的。我们研究的是历史上最伟大的一些企业的创始人和 CEO。而今天这些人都在跟同一个问题较劲：我该怎么用 AI 把生意做大，同时不丢掉让我们与众不同的东西？

[52:36]

And that's exactly where Sierra comes in.And part of why we're so excited to be partnering with them.Well, that and the fact that it's built by basically the super group of tech from thelast two decades with Brett Taylor and Clay Bevor.Previously, ACQ2 guests?

而这正是 Sierra 切入的地方，也是我们为什么这么兴奋能跟他们合作的部分原因。——嗯，那，再加上它基本上是由过去二十年科技圈的「超级乐队」打造的：布雷特·泰勒和克莱·巴沃。——都上过 ACQ2 节目？

[52:50]

Yes.And the ridiculous group of talent that they have assembled there.Yes.Sierra has built customer-facing AI agents that can do a huge range of things.Not just basic support stuff like answering questions, but the kind of hard things thatare closer to a company's core value creation.So think about things like helping with a mortgage application all the way to closing or a caraccident to getting a claim paid, a doctor's referral to handling a specialist appointment,or other use cases like renewing customers at risk of churn, collecting overdue bills, orturning around abandoned shopping carts into completed purchases.So the magic is that these are not one-off conversations.These are journeys that unfold over days, weeks, or even months across phone calls, texts, emails,chat.Every interaction teaches your AI something new, which creates knowledge that is uniquely yoursas a company and strengthens your competitive advantage over time.That ambition is what's attracting some of the world's biggest companies as customers.Today, Sierra partners with over 40% of the Fortune 50, one in three of the world's banks,and five of the 10 largest health insurers in the United States.And our favorite part, it's an entirely new business model.

是的。以及他们在那里聚集起来的一群离谱的人才。——是的。Sierra 打造的是面向客户的 AI Agent，能做的事情范围极广。不只是回答问题这类基础客服，而是那些更难的、更接近一家公司核心价值创造的事。想想这样的场景：从协助一份房贷申请一路做到放款交割；从一次车祸一路做到理赔到账；从一张医生转诊单一路做到帮你搞定专科门诊预约；或者别的用例，比如挽留有流失风险的续费客户、催收逾期账款，或者把被遗弃的购物车变成完成的订单。——神奇之处在于，这些不是一次性的对话。这些是在数天、数周甚至数月里展开的「旅程」，横跨电话、短信、邮件和在线聊天。每一次交互都会教给你的 AI 一些新东西，从而形成一份作为公司独有的知识，并随时间强化你的竞争优势。这样的野心，正是吸引全球一些最大的公司成为其客户的原因。今天，Sierra 的合作客户覆盖了《财富》50 强中超过 40% 的公司、全球三分之一的银行，以及美国十大健康保险公司里的五家。——而我们最喜欢的一点是，它是一种全新的商业模式。

[54:01]

Instead of paying for usage or tokens, you pay for outcomes.A subscriber renewed or a claim got paid.So you can focus on growing your business, not choosing models or managing tokens.And in fact, we think so highly of Sierra that we invested in the company.So to find out how you can build standout customer experiences that grow your business with AI,visit sierra.ai slash acquired and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.Okay, so David, they're flying high.What could possibly go wrong?

你不是为用量或 token 付费，你是为结果付费：一个订阅用户续了费，或者一笔理赔付了款。所以你可以专注于把生意做大，而不是选模型、管 token。事实上，我们对 Sierra 评价高到自己也投了这家公司。所以，想了解你可以怎样用 AI 打造让人眼前一亮、并且真能带动业务增长的客户体验，请访问 sierra.ai/acquired，就说是本和大卫让你来的。——好，那么大卫，他们此时正春风得意。还能出什么岔子呢？

[54:31] David Rosenthal

Oh, man.Well, 1994 is a great year for Disney as a business because Lion King comes out.Well, it's a terrible year for Disney as a company.And there's three huge blows that hit the company in quick succession.First, on Easter Sunday, 1994, Frank Wells is shockingly and tragically killed in a helicopter crash while hella skiing.This is terrible.This is terrible.Um, on every level.For the company and the management team, for all that Michael Eisner was, Ben, as you said, like the creative executive and had to be the public face of the Walt Disney Company and the Disney Renaissance.Frank was like the guy behind the scenes holding it all together.He absolutely was the yin to Michael's yang.And all of a sudden he's gone.Like one day's here, one day's gone.And there's big personalities at the table.Michael's a big personality.Jeffrey's a big personality.And Frank was kind of the peacekeeper, the one who could always relate to everyone, be the intermediary, calm people down when they were hot about something.I mean, he was the guy who, when Michael said, I need to be number one, he said, okay, no problem.Let's all go make magic together.Yep.And that force is just not at the company anymore.

哦，天哪。1994 年对迪士尼这门生意来说是很棒的一年，因为《狮子王》上映了。但对迪士尼这家公司来说，这是糟糕透顶的一年。有三记重击接连砸在公司头上。第一记：1994 年复活节那个星期日，弗兰克·威尔斯在直升机滑雪时遭遇坠机，令人震惊而悲痛地遇难。——这太可怕了。——太可怕了。在每一个层面上都是。对公司和管理团队来说尤其如此——因为迈克尔·艾斯纳的角色，本，就像你说的，是那个创意型高管，必须当华特迪士尼公司和迪士尼文艺复兴的公众面孔；而弗兰克是幕后那个把一切黏合起来的人。他绝对是迈克尔那个「阳」对应的「阴」。然后突然之间他就没了。前一天还在，第二天就不在了。而桌边坐着的都是强势人格。迈克尔是强势人格，杰弗瑞是强势人格。弗兰克是那个维和的人，那个永远能跟所有人建立关系、当中间人、在别人上头时把人劝冷静下来的人。我是说，当迈克尔说「我必须是一号」时，他说「行，没问题，我们一起去创造魔法吧」。——对。而这股力量从此在公司里消失了。

[55:59] David Rosenthal

So then three months later, while Michael is at the annual Allen and Company conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, he starts experiencing chest pains and has to be rushed.Back to LA into emergency quadruple bypass open heart surgery.Yeah.And he's out of commission.I mean, he is recovering from open heart surgery in the hospital while they're feeling the loss of Frank Wells.There's a lot of decisions that need to get made.And there's a lot of like personnel clashes that needed to get sort of through.But what can Michael do?

接着，三个月后，迈克尔在爱达荷州太阳谷（Sun Valley）参加一年一度的艾伦公司（Allen & Company）大会时，开始出现胸痛，不得不被紧急送回洛杉矶，做了急诊的四支冠脉搭桥心脏直视手术。——是啊。——于是他也无法履职了。我是说，在大家还在承受失去弗兰克·威尔斯的打击时，他正躺在医院里从心脏手术中恢复。有大量决策需要拍板，也有大量人事冲突需要理顺。可迈克尔能做什么呢？

[56:42]

He's in the hospital.It's like literally on the operating table.He even thought there was some chance he might not make it.He gave his wife instructions.Hey, if I don't wake up, do X, Y, and Z.Harrowing times.Yeah.Yeah.So then in the middle of this, Katzenberg quits.Well, there's a lot of different sides to this story.Yep.One version of it is that Jeffrey was promised the number two job at the company if Frank ever moved on or, you know, retired or anything.Yep.That was certainly Jeffrey's understanding that Michael had promised him that.Yes.There were other perspectives, including from Roy E. Disney, that, hey, Jeffrey is great in the job that he has running the studios, you know, animation and the other film studios.But he's by no means ready to be the president of the Walt Disney Company.Which, again, at this point is much more than just the film studios.You know, it's all of those other businesses that we talked about.Right.And so we need to sit tight for a little while.So Jeffrey's interpretation of this, which is, again, quite reasonable, is, well, I thought you told me this was mine.I am itching to do something bigger than my current responsibility.I've been a good team player.

他人在医院里，简直就是在手术台上。他甚至觉得自己有一定概率下不来手术台。他给妻子留了交代：嘿，如果我醒不过来，就照 X、Y、Z 去做。——惊心动魄的日子。——是啊，是啊。——然后在这中间，卡曾伯格辞职了。——嗯，这件事有很多不同的说法。——对。一个版本是：如果弗兰克哪天离任、退休或者怎样，杰弗瑞被承诺过可以接公司的二号位。——对。杰弗瑞当然是这么理解的，他认为迈克尔向他承诺过。——是的。但也有别的视角，包括罗伊·E·迪士尼的看法：嘿，杰弗瑞在他现在这个位子上——管动画和其他电影制片厂——干得很好，但他远远还没到能当华特迪士尼公司总裁的程度。——而且再说一遍，这时候的公司已经远不只是电影制片厂了，还有我们前面讲的所有那些别的业务。——对。所以我们还得再稳一稳。——而杰弗瑞对此的理解——同样也相当合理——是：可你不是跟我说这个位子是我的吗？我正憋着一股劲想干比现在职责更大的事。我一直是个好队员。

[57:54]

I just created some of the most successful movies ever.Iconic IP.That's right.With the Disney Renaissance films Lion King and Beauty and the Beast and all these.If you don't think I have a future here to become president of this company, then I'm out.I'm going to go do something else.Yep.So he elects that option and leaves.Yep.And he doesn't just leave.He leaves and starts a competitor.And starts a lawsuit.Yes.Yes.He also sues the Walt Disney Company for bonuses that he was owed.They end up settling that lawsuit many years later for a reported $280 million.But yeah, he leaves and starts a competitor.Yes.DreamWorks.Yes.With Steven Spielberg and David Geffen.And the intention is DreamWorks is going to be a full stack Disney competitor.They're going to do live action.They're going to do animation.They're going to do music with David Geffen.They're going to do television.They're going to do video games.And they're going to do music with Disney Flywheel minus the parks.But then they sign up with Universal as their movie distributor.And they set up their headquarters on Universal's lot, which is also a theme park.So, yeah.Suddenly, a very, very formidable competitor.And then they decide to build the DreamWorks Animation Studio just down the street from Disney in Glendale.

我刚刚创造出了有史以来最成功的一批电影。——标志性的 IP。——没错。迪士尼文艺复兴的那些片子——《狮子王》《美女与野兽》等等。如果你认为我在这里没有当上公司总裁的未来，那我走。我去做别的。——对。所以他选了这个选项，走了。——对。而且他不只是走人，他走了还去创办了一个竞争对手。——还发起了一场诉讼。——是的，是的。他还起诉华特迪士尼公司，索要欠他的奖金。多年之后双方和解，据报道金额是 2.8 亿美元。但没错，他离开后创办了一个竞争对手。——是的。梦工厂（DreamWorks）。——是的。和史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格、大卫·格芬一起。他们的意图是把梦工厂做成一个全栈的迪士尼竞争对手：他们要做真人电影，要做动画，要跟大卫·格芬一起做音乐，要做电视，要做电子游戏。他们要做的就是迪士尼那套飞轮，只是没有乐园。而且他们跟环球（Universal）签了发行协议，把总部设在环球的片厂里——那里也有一个主题乐园。所以，是啊，突然之间出现了一个非常、非常可怕的竞争对手。然后他们决定把梦工厂动画工作室建在格伦代尔、迪士尼往前没多远的地方。

[59:18] David Rosenthal

And they start poaching the Disney animators.And one of the first people that Katzenberg recruits is Brenda Chapman, member from CalArts and room A113, who was head of story for The Lion King.And DreamWorks Animation would soon go on to create Shrek.That would do half a billion dollars at the box office.This is the first time Disney has had something like this, a full stack competitor in its backyard.Yep.So, adding insult to injury here is you might say, okay, well, animation is roaring.And, you know, it wasn't all Jeffrey, so they should be fine.Sadly, Howard Ashman passed away from AIDS just a couple years before this.And there's a vacuum of Howard's presence in the animation department and in the films that they would go on to make from here.Yep.So, kind of from here, what comes out of Disney animation is...Next one is Pocahontas, right?

而且他们开始挖迪士尼的动画师。卡曾伯格最早招募的人之一，就是布伦达·查普曼——CalArts、A113 教室那批人中的一员，《狮子王》的故事总监。梦工厂动画很快就会做出《怪物史莱克》（Shrek），票房五亿美元。这是迪士尼第一次在自家后院遇上这样一个全栈竞争对手。——对。——而更雪上加霜的是：你可能会说，好吧，动画正如日中天，而且也不全是杰弗瑞的功劳，所以他们应该没事。可惜的是，霍华德·阿什曼在此前两年因艾滋病去世了。霍华德的缺席，在动画部门和他们此后要做的那些片子里留下了一个真空。——对。所以从这里开始，迪士尼动画拿出来的东西是……下一部是《风中奇缘》（Pocahontas），对吧？

[1:00:12]

Yep.Then Hunchback of Notre Dame, Hercules, Mulan, Tarzan, Fantasia 2000, a movie called Dinosaur in 2000, which I actually remember fondly.I think that was Disney's first 3D animated movie.Yeah, exactly.Yeah.Emperor's New Groove, Atlantis, Lilo and Stitch, and Treasure Planet.Yeah.You know, you know some of those films.None of them are The Lion King.Right.Right.So, yeah, in the vacuum left by all of this, Michael decides that the person he's going to promote to number two president and chief operating officer of the Walt Disney Company is himself.Yeah.It's the Michael Eisner Company now, through and through.Yeah.Hey, he was great.Like, he's eminently qualified.I mean, the last 10 years have been unbelievable.So, yeah.But it's a big job on top of an already very big job.And really what he's saying is, look, there's no one obviously ready to be number two across films and TV and the parks.And so, until we figure that out, I'm just going to be the guy.Yep.Yep.And he's also about to pull the trigger on a pretty fundamental change in what the Walt Disney Company was that he had been planning for a couple years.He's been sniffing around the TV networks.Yes.Yes.And wasn't there some regulatory reason why suddenly this was possible?

对。然后是《钟楼怪人》《大力士》《花木兰》《人猿泰山》《幻想曲 2000》，还有 2000 年一部叫《恐龙》（Dinosaur）的片子——我其实对它印象还不错。我记得那是迪士尼第一部 3D 动画长片。——对，正是。——是啊。——还有《变身国王》（The Emperor's New Groove）、《失落的帝国》（Atlantis）、《星际宝贝》（Lilo & Stitch）和《星银岛》（Treasure Planet）。——是啊。这些片子里有几部你是知道的，但没有一部是《狮子王》。——对。对。——所以，在这一切留下的真空里，迈克尔决定：他要提拔为华特迪士尼公司二号人物、总裁兼首席运营官的那个人，就是他自己。——是啊。——现在从里到外都是「迈克尔·艾斯纳公司」了。——是啊。喂，他很厉害啊，他资历完全够格。我是说，过去十年简直不可思议。——所以，是的。但这是在一个本来就非常大的岗位上又叠了一个大岗位。而他真正想说的其实是：听着，横跨电影、电视和乐园，没有一个明显够格当二号的人。所以在我们想清楚之前，我先自己顶着。——对，对。——而且他还即将扣下扳机，做一件他已经筹划了好几年、会从根本上改变华特迪士尼公司性质的事。他一直在电视网那边四处嗅探。——是的，是的。——是不是还有什么监管上的原因，让这件事突然变得可行了？

[1:01:48]

Yes.So, back in 1993, the FCC had repealed a law called the Financial Interest and Syndication Rules that prohibited TV networks from owning the programs that they aired.Right.Because the thinking behind this, I think, in the 70s when it was enacted, is that these TV broadcast networks, the big three networks, are kind of a monopoly on content in the country.There's no cable.So, if those companies basically vertically integrate and own a movie studio and then they air those movies on just the three networks, then we kind of have a problem because there's not enough competition in this marketplace.But as two decades go by, now you've got cable TV and suddenly you've hamstrung all these networks and the networks aren't allowed to produce their own content while they're trying to fight this existential battle of, oh, my God, cable's coming in and eating our lunch.Yep.So, of course, the thing that makes sense, which is great.I love it when laws get repealed, when they don't make sense anymore.That law is repealed and suddenly you now have like open season on movie studios and TV networks trying to combine.Yep.So, Michael is sniffing around.He's like interested in CBS first, right?

是的。1993 年，FCC（美国联邦通信委员会）废除了一条叫「财务权益与辛迪加规则」（Financial Interest and Syndication Rules，简称 fin-syn）的法律，这条规则禁止电视网拥有它们播出的节目。——对。这条规则在 70 年代出台时背后的想法是：这些广播电视网、那三大网，某种程度上垄断了全国的内容。当时没有有线电视。所以如果这些公司做垂直整合、自己拥有一家电影公司，再把这些片子只在这三家网上播，那我们就有麻烦了，因为这个市场里的竞争不够。但二十年过去，现在有了有线电视，你等于把这些电视网的手脚都捆住了：网台一边要打「天哪，有线电视杀进来抢我们饭碗」这场生死战，一边还不许自己制作内容。——对。所以理所当然的事情就该发生——这很好，我最喜欢那些不再合理的法律被废掉了。这条法律被废除，于是电影公司和电视网之间的合并突然变成了「开放狩猎季」。——对。于是迈克尔开始四处嗅探。他最先感兴趣的是 CBS，对吧？

[1:03:03]

Yeah.Sniffing around CBS, NBC isn't for sale.He talks to ABC, does a typical Michael kind of lowball offer.Yeah.That goes nowhere.But Michael had actually started his career at ABC.So, Barry Diller and Michael, they were TV guys at ABC before they went to Paramount.So, he knew everybody there.And then at the Sun Valley Conference the next year in 1995.It's always at Sun Valley.Always at Sun Valley.Michael strikes a deal for the Walt Disney Company to acquire ABC Capital Cities for $19 billion, which was the second largest acquisition in history to that point.Man, crazy.$19 billion.That's like quaint today.The only bigger one was RJR Nabisco.Yes.Yes.Which is going to come up here in a sec.And I think there's so much great lore around this, but I think this was like a parking lot conversation where Michael had been hoping to run into Warren Buffett.Yep.And he finally did.And Warren calls over Tom Murphy, who was there too.CEO of Capital Cities ABC.Yep.And they kind of start talking.And I think within days, maybe a week or something, then they've got a deal hammered out.Yep.Yep.Yeah.Yeah.So Warren Buffett in Berkshire was the largest shareholder in ABC Cap Cities, which had been created a decade earlier in the famous Minnow Swallows Whale transaction.

对。先看了看 CBS，NBC 不卖。他跟 ABC 谈过，开了一个典型的迈克尔式压价报价。——是啊。——那没谈成。不过迈克尔其实是在 ABC 起步的。巴里·迪勒和迈克尔在去派拉蒙之前都是 ABC 的电视人。所以他认识那里的所有人。然后是第二年，1995 年的太阳谷大会上。——永远是在太阳谷。——永远是在太阳谷。——迈克尔谈成了一笔交易：华特迪士尼公司以 190 亿美元收购 ABC / 大都会（Capital Cities），这是当时史上第二大的收购案。——天哪，太疯狂了。190 亿美元。放到今天听起来还挺小家子气的。——比它更大的只有 RJR 纳贝斯克（RJR Nabisco）那笔。——是的，是的。——那个待会儿马上就会出现。我觉得围绕这件事有很多很棒的传说，但我记得这好像是一场停车场里的对话——迈克尔一直希望能偶遇沃伦·巴菲特。——对。——他终于遇上了。然后沃伦把也在场的汤姆·墨菲（Tom Murphy）叫了过来。——大都会 / ABC 的 CEO。——对。然后他们就聊起来了。我记得几天之内，也许一周左右，他们就把交易敲定了。——对，对。——是啊，是啊。所以沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔是 ABC / 大都会最大的股东，而这家公司本身是十年前那笔著名的「小鱼吞鲸」交易的产物。

[1:04:29]

That's right.A lot of listeners probably won't know this, but ABC is actually not the parent company that Disney was going after to acquire.ABC was owned by something called Capital Cities, which had unbelievably managed to acquire ABC, even though ABC is much bigger than it was.Yeah, it's like four times bigger.You might say, how is this possible?

没错。很多听众可能不知道这一点：迪士尼要收购的母公司其实并不是 ABC。ABC 当时属于一家叫「大都会」（Capital Cities）的公司，而这家公司在体量远小于 ABC 的情况下，居然把 ABC 给收了。——是啊，ABC 大概是它的四倍。你可能会问，这怎么可能？

[1:04:46] David Rosenthal

Well, they had the financial backing of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.That's right.That's right.So it's basically using Berkshire Hathaway's capital and the small company of Capital Cities to sort of jointly buy and control ABC.Yep.One of Warren Buffett's many genius deals.Yep.So Buffett and Berkshire are the largest shareholders in ABC Cap Cities here.So really, the person that Eisner is pitching is Buffett.Now, Ben, you mentioned something really important, which was that the reason that these laws had been repealed by the FCC was the new competition from cable TV.I mean, the broadcast networks used to have this monopoly on television content in America.Now, all of a sudden here in the 90s, cable and pay TV is just this explosion of content in America and the broadcast networks are under threat.So the broadcast networks like ABC went from like historically these great businesses to kind of like OK businesses because so much of American viewing time and thus advertising dollars had transitioned over to cable.But it just so happened that buried within ABC.ABC.Was the single best cable asset in the history of mankind, the entertainment and sports programming network, better known as ESPN.

因为他们有沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔·哈撒韦的资金支持。——没错，没错。所以本质上就是用伯克希尔的资本，加上大都会这家小公司，联手把 ABC 买下来并控制住。——对。这是沃伦·巴菲特众多神来之笔的交易之一。——对。所以在这里，巴菲特和伯克希尔是 ABC / 大都会最大的股东。所以艾斯纳真正要说服的人是巴菲特。——本，你刚才提到了一个非常重要的点：FCC 废除这些法律的原因，正是有线电视带来的新竞争。我是说，广播电视网过去在美国的电视内容上是垄断的。而现在，在 90 年代，有线和付费电视让美国的内容出现了爆炸式增长，广播电视网受到威胁。所以像 ABC 这样的广播网从历史上那种极好的生意，变成了「还行」的生意，因为美国人大量的收视时间、以及随之而来的广告费，都转移到了有线那边。但恰恰就在 ABC 内部埋着——ABC 里面埋着——人类历史上最好的那一项有线资产：娱乐与体育节目网（the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network），也就是大家更熟悉的 ESPN。

[1:06:13] David Rosenthal

Yes.Oh, man.The history of ESPN is like completely crazy on its own.It was acquired by the Getty Oil Company just months after it was founded when it was still a startup.Texaco then acquired Getty, sold off ESPN to ABC.This happened in 1984.ABC wanted a financial partner for the deal.So they bring in Nabisco, like Nabisco as a 20 percent minority partner in ESPN.I guess in theory, like Nabisco was going to get some advertising synergies for their CPG products.I don't know.OK.It doesn't matter because the next year Nabisco gets taken private by KKR in the Barbarians at the Gate.You know, largest acquisition of all time.Yep.Yep.As part of that, they sell off this 20 percent ESPN minority stake to the Hearst Corporation, which still owns it to this day.And Hearst, over the ensuing like four decades, just gets billions and billions of dollars of free cash flow out of ESPN.In a complete free ride.Free ride.Doesn't have to lift a finger.That's right.That's right.But yeah, ESPN became this juggernaut.And they actually invented a whole second revenue line for cable networks in addition to advertising the affiliate fee business model.Because before cable channels would just let themselves show up in a cable bundle, they'd let the cable bundle distribute and say like, oh, well, we're selling ads.

是的。哦，天哪。ESPN 自己的历史就已经完全离谱了。它成立才几个月、还是家创业公司的时候，就被盖蒂石油公司（Getty Oil）收购了。后来德士古（Texaco）收购了盖蒂，把 ESPN 卖给了 ABC，这发生在 1984 年。ABC 想给这笔交易找个财务伙伴，于是拉来了纳贝斯克（Nabisco），让纳贝斯克持有 ESPN 20% 的少数股权。我猜理论上纳贝斯克是想为自己的快消品拿到一些广告协同效应吧。我也说不好。行吧。这其实无所谓，因为第二年纳贝斯克就在《门口的野蛮人》那场交易里被 KKR 私有化了——当时史上最大的收购案。——对，对。——作为那笔交易的一部分，他们把 ESPN 这 20% 的少数股权卖给了赫斯特集团（the Hearst Corporation），赫斯特至今仍然持有。而在随后大约四十年里，赫斯特就从 ESPN 身上拿走了数十亿又数十亿美元的自由现金流。——完全是搭便车。——搭便车。——一根手指头都不用动。——没错，没错。不过是的，ESPN 后来变成了一头巨兽。而且他们其实为有线电视频道发明了除广告之外的第二条收入线：附属台费（affiliate fee）模式。因为在此之前，有线频道只是让自己出现在有线套餐里，让套餐去做分发，心想：哦，反正我们是靠卖广告赚钱。

[1:07:55]

So can you just do the distribution for us so that anybody who's buying your cable bundle will get my channel and thus see my ads?And pre-ESPN, that was the whole business model.Even more than that, I think for a lot of startup cable networks, the dollars went the other way.I think they were even paying.Right.They would pay to be included.The cable operators to carry the channel, right?

所以你能不能替我们做分发，让买你有线套餐的人都能收到我的频道，从而看到我的广告？在 ESPN 之前，整个商业模式就是这样。——甚至比这更甚，我觉得对很多刚起步的有线频道来说，钱是往反方向流的。我记得他们甚至是要倒贴的。——对，他们得付钱才能被纳入。——付给有线运营商，让人家愿意承载这个频道，对吧？

[1:08:15]

Yes.And ESPN sort of realizes like they were buying sports rights.Yeah.To broadcast leagues and they needed to cover their costs.So they asked the bundlers, the cable companies like, hey, will you pay us X cents per viewer so that we can actually afford to go buy these rights?

是的。而 ESPN 逐渐意识到，他们要买体育赛事版权。——对。——要转播各大联盟，他们得覆盖自己的成本。所以他们去问那些做套餐的有线公司：嘿，你们能不能按每个观众多少美分付给我们，这样我们才买得起这些版权？

[1:08:35] David Rosenthal

The money to buy the sports rights.That may have been how it started.But pretty quickly, though, ESPN and then within ABC, once ABC owns it, they realized that sports rights are the biggest point of leverage that they could possibly have over the cable operators.Because all ESPN has to do is threaten to pull the plug on any given cable operator and say to their thousands or millions of subscribers out there, oh, hey, you know, you wanted to watch those NBA games or those MLB games or those NFL games or see those highlights on SportsCenter.Sorry, we're in a carriage dispute with ESPN.We're not going to be able to show those.A stick that still gets used today.Right.I mean, when that happens, people actually show up at the doorstep of the cable operators and basically riot.Americans love nothing more than their sports.Yep.That is pricing power right there.And so once ESPN figures out this business model, it just becomes this incredible juggernaut.At first, Ben, like you said, they get the cable operators to pay them a few cents per subscriber that gets the ESPN channel.And it goes up to a dollar, then $2 a month and then $5 a month.Do you know what ESPN's current affiliate fee average deal is per month with pay TV operators?

用来买体育版权的钱。一开始可能确实是这样。但很快，ESPN——以及 ABC 收购之后的 ABC——就意识到：体育版权是他们对有线运营商可能拥有的最大筹码。因为 ESPN 只要威胁对某家有线运营商断掉信号，然后对人家那成千上万、甚至上百万的订户说：哦，嘿，你们本来想看那些 NBA 比赛、MLB 比赛、NFL 比赛，或者想在《SportsCenter》上看集锦——抱歉，我们跟 ESPN 正在闹转播费纠纷，播不了了。——这根大棒今天还在用。——对。我是说，这种事一发生，人们真的会跑到有线运营商门口去闹。美国人最爱的就是他们的体育。——对。那就是定价权。——所以一旦 ESPN 摸清了这套商业模式，它就变成了一头不可思议的巨兽。一开始，本，就像你说的，他们让有线运营商按每个收到 ESPN 频道的订户付几美分。然后涨到 1 美元，再到每月 2 美元，再到每月 5 美元。你知道 ESPN 现在跟付费电视运营商签的附属台费平均是每月多少吗？

[1:10:05]

I know it's the single highest paid channel by like 3x.4x.Yeah, much higher than any.I'm going to guess, I don't know, $10 per subscriber.$9.42 per month per subscriber that the cable operators pay ESPN.This is billions and billions and billions of highly predictable cash money dollars flowing into ESPN.Contractually guaranteed.Virtually guaranteed every month.I mean, yeah, sports are the reason, especially today, that people are buying cable.Right.And ESPN is very aware of that value that they provide to the bundle.They are very good at value capture.Yes.Yes.So back to the Disney Cap City's ABC deal here in 1995.I don't think, if they're really honest, that Disney and Michael really knew how big ESPN was going to become.At this point, ESPN had 66 million cable subscribers, but they were only just beginning to really ramp their pricing leverage.There's a Roy E. Disney quote on this.Nobody would have told you when that deal, the ABC deal, was being made that ESPN was going to turn out to be the weightlifter of the group.Nobody involved in it in any way ever would have thought that.Yep.Yep.At that point, ESPN's average monthly affiliate fee with their cable partners was still less than a buck.

我知道它是单频道里最贵的，大概是第二名的三倍。——四倍。——是啊，比任何频道都高得多。我猜——我不知道——每个订户 10 美元？——每个订户每月 9.42 美元，这是有线运营商付给 ESPN 的钱。这是数十亿又数十亿、可预测性极高的真金白银流进 ESPN。——是合同保证的。——几乎每个月都是保证的。我是说，体育正是人们买有线电视的理由，今天尤其如此。——对。而 ESPN 非常清楚自己给这个套餐提供的价值。他们极其擅长价值捕获。——是的，是的。——那我们回到 1995 年这笔迪士尼收购大都会 / ABC 的交易。说实话，我不认为迪士尼和迈克尔真的知道 ESPN 会变得多大。当时 ESPN 有 6600 万有线订户，但他们才刚刚开始真正加码自己的定价筹码。罗伊·E·迪士尼有一句关于这件事的话：「在做那笔 ABC 交易的时候，没有任何人会告诉你 ESPN 最后会成为这群资产里的举重冠军。任何以任何方式参与其中的人，都绝不会这么想。」——对，对。当时 ESPN 跟有线合作方的月均附属台费还不到一美元。

[1:11:34]

So there was so much more room to scale ahead of it.But absolutely quickly after Disney acquires Cap City's in 1996, ESPN becomes this just crown jewel within the company almost overnight and almost completely by accident.But the business model, once they got it going, was so simple.Just like call up the cable operators every year or two and say, hey, we're going to raise carriage rates 20%.Oh, you don't like that?

所以前面还有巨大的规模化空间。而在迪士尼于 1996 年完成对大都会的收购之后，ESPN 几乎是一夜之间、并且几乎完全是意外地，成了公司内部的皇冠明珠。——而这套商业模式一旦跑起来就极其简单：每隔一两年给有线运营商打个电话说，嘿，我们要把转播费提高 20%。哦，你不喜欢？

[1:12:06]

Okay, we'll pull the plug.You sure you don't like that?All right, 20% it is.And they had locked up the sports rights for like a decade for any of the sports they were bidding on.And they realized that, oh, we should go get the longest contracts we can so we have the most leverage over these cable companies.Yep.So this is like the heyday of ESPN here in the late 90s into the early 2000s.MLB, NBA, they do a big NFL deal in 1998 to get Sunday night football and Monday night football rights for ABC.They get three Super Bowls out of that.But meanwhile, they invented the whole sports highlight category.That's right.Which is just like, hey, we've got these rights and live sports are worthless the minute after they aired.But what if we show them again a few hours later in a nightly highlight show with a lot of sizzle and some great anchors and this is SportsCenter.And like, man, was it awesome.Yep.The cost to operate ESPN beyond the sports rights was not that much.They're operating out of Bristol, Connecticut.Yeah.The cherry on top to all this, too.So Disney is already in the cable game before acquiring ABC Cap City's ESPN.They had launched Disney Channel in 1983.Yep.I think that's right.And it was super rocky at first.

好啊，那我们就断信号。你确定你不喜欢？行，那就 20%。——而且他们把自己竞标的任何一项体育赛事的版权都锁定了差不多十年。他们意识到：哦，我们应该去签能签的最长的合同，这样对这些有线公司的筹码才最大。——对。所以 90 年代末到 2000 年代初是 ESPN 的鼎盛期。MLB、NBA，1998 年他们又做了一笔大的 NFL 交易，为 ABC 拿下周日晚间橄榄球和周一晚间橄榄球的版权，还从中拿到了三届超级碗。——但与此同时，他们发明了整个「体育集锦」品类。——没错。那就是：嘿，我们手里有这些版权，而直播体育在播完的那一刻就一文不值了。但如果我们几个小时后，在一档夜间集锦节目里再放一遍呢？加上大量的花活儿和几位很棒的主播——这就是《SportsCenter》。老天，那节目真是太棒了。——对。而且除了体育版权之外，运营 ESPN 的成本并不高。他们是在康涅狄格州的布里斯托尔（Bristol）办公。——是啊。——这一切之上还有一颗樱桃：在收购大都会 / ABC / ESPN 之前，迪士尼其实就已经在有线这门生意里了。他们 1983 年推出了迪士尼频道（Disney Channel）。——对，我记得是这样。而且一开始极其坎坷。

[1:13:27]

Expensive to get off the ground.Way over budget.It was actually part of the problems they were going through in 83 along with Epcot cost overruns.But now that they have ESPN, they're able to collectively bargain with the cable companies.So not only could they command premium rates for ESPN, they would also say, oh, yeah, you want the Disney Channel and A&E and Lifetime.Yeah, those rates are going up, too.Yep.Exactly.It's almost like a bundle within a bundle.And that's not even getting into ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPN News, ESPN Ocho.These days, the SEC network, they go nuts.So this is a grand slam for Disney, an absolute grand slam.But it's yet another huge management item competing for Michael Eisner's attention among all the other existing management items at the Walt Disney Company.And Eisner's thought going in was it is important to have the Disney brand and our products and our content distributed on television.Walt did this.That's how they built the Disneyland mania around that TV show.With ABC.Bringing it full circle.And all that did become important.It was kind of amazing to have ABC and these cable stations as an outlet to promote Disney stuff, you know, in this kind of flywheel synergistic aligned way that we've been talking about.

启动成本很高，严重超支。它其实和 EPCOT 的成本超支一起，构成了 1983 年他们面临的那堆麻烦的一部分。——但现在有了 ESPN，他们可以跟有线公司打包谈判了。所以不仅 ESPN 能要到溢价的费率，他们还能说：哦对了，你们想要迪士尼频道、A&E 和 Lifetime 吧？这些频道的费率也要涨。——对，正是。这几乎就是「套餐里的套餐」。而且这还没算上 ESPN2、ESPN Classic、ESPN News、ESPN Ocho——这年头还有 SEC 电视网，他们玩疯了。——所以这对迪士尼是一记满贯本垒打，绝对的满贯本垒打。但它同时也是又一个巨大的管理事项，要在华特迪士尼公司所有既有的管理事项之外，去争夺迈克尔·艾斯纳的注意力。——艾斯纳当初的想法是：让迪士尼品牌、我们的产品和内容在电视上被分发出去，这件事很重要。沃尔特当年就是这么干的，他们就是靠那档电视节目造出了迪士尼乐园的狂热。——而且当年就是跟 ABC 合作的。——正好绕回来了。——这些后来也确实变得重要。有 ABC 和这些有线频道作为宣传迪士尼东西的出口，是挺了不起的，就是我们一直在讲的那种飞轮式的、协同一致的方式。

[1:14:58] Ben Gilbert

But to your point, David, what it ended up actually being was just an amazing source of continuous free cash flow that they could do other stuff with.Yeah, it's great that we can promote the Disney brand and it can provide all this alignment.But you know what's even better than that?

但按你的说法，大卫，它最后真正扮演的角色，其实只是一个源源不断、极其可观的自由现金流来源，他们可以拿这些钱去做别的事。是啊，我们能宣传迪士尼品牌、能带来这些协同，这很好。但你知道比这更好的是什么吗？

[1:15:14]

Just spinning off mountains of cash that we can use in movies, in parks to sort of expand the business.Yep. I think you can make an argument that ABC fits in with the Walt Disney Company and the Disney flywheel.ESPN is this wholly separate thing that really doesn't.Mickey Mouse and SportsCenter do not meet.I mean, they try to put what ESPN World of Sports in Disney World and stuff like that.Wide World of Sports.Yep.And ESPN Zone.Yeah, that's right. Oh, ESPN Zone. Yeah, yeah, yeah.But the correct move that they figured out eventually was kind of firewall ESPN out on its own.Make the best ESPN you can and just enjoy the dollars.Yep.And the timing totally lines up with everything you were talking about, David.Expanding the parks, building hotels, leaning into resorts.This is how they funded it all was all the cash that ESPN and the cable networks, but mostly ESPN, were spitting out.Yeah.There's even a quote in Bob Iger's book, which we haven't talked about Bob yet, but we will.Comes into Disney via the Cap Cities acquisition.That's right. He worked at Capital Cities.Bob is COO of Cap Cities.Yep.The quote is, it gave Disney a scale to remain independent while other studios were falling on hard times.

是它甩出成山的现金，让我们可以投到电影里、投到乐园里去扩张业务。——对。我觉得你可以论证 ABC 是跟华特迪士尼公司和迪士尼飞轮契合的，而 ESPN 完全是另一回事，跟这套飞轮真的不搭。米老鼠和《SportsCenter》碰不到一起。——我是说，他们确实试过，把什么 ESPN 体育世界放进迪士尼世界之类的。——是「ESPN 广阔体育世界」（Wide World of Sports）。——对。还有 ESPN Zone。——是啊，没错。哦，ESPN Zone，对对对。——但他们最终想明白的正确做法，是把 ESPN 隔离出来独立运作：把 ESPN 做到最好，然后享受它带来的钱。——对。而这个时间点跟你刚才讲的一切完全对得上，大卫：扩建乐园、盖酒店、全力做度假区。他们靠什么把这一切都出资了？就是 ESPN 和这些有线频道——主要是 ESPN——吐出来的现金。——是啊。鲍勃·艾格（Bob Iger）的书里甚至有一句话——我们还没聊到鲍勃，但会聊到的。——他正是通过收购大都会进入迪士尼的。——没错，他当时在大都会工作。——鲍勃是大都会的首席运营官。——对。那句话是：「它给了迪士尼在其他制片厂陷入困境时仍能保持独立的体量。」

[1:16:31] Ben Gilbert

ESPN also further stabilized the business during the ups and downs of animation.And here, David, is an astonishing statistic.Late on me.So we're flashing forward, but later on in the 2008 to 2011 timeframe, Disney's cable networks segment, of which analysts believe that three quarters of the cable network segment is ESPN.Yeah.That segment accounted for 60% of the entire company's operating income during that 2008 to 2011 period.Over $5 billion in profit just from the cable channels.I mean, they evolved into the cable TV affiliate fees company.Yep.So back here to the late 90s into the early 2000s, Michael's just overloaded managing all this.And one element of the backdrop to all this is it's the dot-com era.Disney does all sorts of crazy dot-com stuff.They acquire Starwave, Paul Allen's company after Microsoft.

ESPN 还在动画业务起起落落的过程中，进一步稳住了整家公司。而这里，大卫，有一个惊人的数据。——快说。——我们先快进一下：后来在 2008 到 2011 这段时间里，迪士尼的有线电视网板块——分析师认为其中四分之三是 ESPN————是啊。——这个板块在 2008 到 2011 年间贡献了整家公司 60% 的营业利润。光是有线频道就带来超过 50 亿美元的利润。我是说，他们进化成了一家「有线电视附属台费公司」。——对。——那我们回到 90 年代末到 2000 年代初：迈克尔要管的这一切已经严重超载了。而这一切的背景之一，是互联网泡沫时代（dot-com era）。迪士尼干了各种各样疯狂的互联网操作。他们收购了 Starwave——保罗·艾伦离开微软后创办的公司。

[1:17:39]

That's right.Right here in Seattle.Yep.Starwave was basically like a web developer that they, I think, paid a couple hundred million dollars for.Then they buy Infoseek, which was like the seventh place search engine.They then create a separate Disney internet assets tracking stock that they float publicly.What?

没错。就在我们这儿，西雅图。——对。Starwave 本质上就是个网站开发公司，我记得他们花了两三亿美元买下的。然后他们又买了 Infoseek，一个排名第七的搜索引擎。接着他们还专门做了一只「迪士尼互联网资产」的追踪股（tracking stock）公开上市。——什么？

[1:17:59]

Yeah.You can't make all this stuff up.It's, you know, dot-com insanity.And like, hey, okay, great.Give Eisner a pass because everybody's doing dot-com insanity during this era.Well, the biggest credit to give is the deal that he didn't do.Exactly.Yeah.AOL approached him.Steve Case approached him before Time Warner about an AOL-Disney combination.And to Michael's eternal credit, maybe the best thing he did as CEO of the Walt Disney Company, among many, many great things.Other than buying ESPN.Other than buying ESPN.But yeah, I was going to say thanks, but no thanks to AOL.Yeah.I mean, looking at what AOL did with Time Warner, AOL merged its stock that was highly marked, but the intrinsic value of the company was actually worthless with Warner Brothers, like a real durable, stable company, at least at the time.And that could have happened to Disney too.But amidst all these very high valuations of the dot-com era, and I watched a bunch of interviews of Michael at this time, he was skeptical and very careful about not giving away Disney in like a foolish transaction like that.Yep.Yep.Yep.While we're on bad decisions during this era, Michael does finally hire a president.Yeah.And a number two.

是啊。这些事你都编不出来。就是互联网泡沫式的疯狂。——那，好吧，行，这一条就放过艾斯纳吧，因为那个年代人人都在干互联网疯事。——而最该给他记功的，是他没做的那笔交易。——正是。——是啊。AOL 找过他。史蒂夫·凯斯（Steve Case）在找时代华纳之前，先找过他谈 AOL 与迪士尼的合并。而这一点是迈克尔永远值得称道的，也许是他作为华特迪士尼公司 CEO 做过的最好的一件事——在众多很棒的事情之中。——除了买下 ESPN 之外。——除了买下 ESPN。不过是的，我想说的就是「谢谢 AOL，但不必了」。——是啊。看看 AOL 对时代华纳干了什么：AOL 用自己那只被市场标得极高、但内在价值其实一文不值的股票，去合并了华纳兄弟这样一家真实、耐久、稳定的公司——至少在当时是。这件事本来也可能发生在迪士尼身上。但在互联网泡沫那些极高的估值中间——我看了不少迈克尔那时候的访谈——他是持怀疑态度的，非常小心地不把迪士尼在一笔那样愚蠢的交易里送出去。——对，对，对。——说到这个时代的糟糕决策：迈克尔终于还是聘了一位总裁。——是啊。一位二号人物。

[1:19:15] David Rosenthal

So his close friend and Hollywood super agent, Michael Ovitz, comes in as Disney president to be Eisner's number two and help him operate the company in 1995.Michael, famed past acquired guest.That's right.Founder of Creative Artist Agency.This was huge.This was huge news in Hollywood.Earth-shattering stuff.I mean, Michael Ovitz built CAA into such a force in not only Hollywood, but kind of the whole creative community.The only thing that rivaled the power of the studios at the time was CAA.Going to be the number two after being the founder number one at CAA said a lot.And you know what?

1995 年，他的密友、好莱坞超级经纪人迈克尔·奥维茨（Michael Ovitz）出任迪士尼总裁，成为艾斯纳的二号，帮他一起运营公司。——迈克尔，我们节目著名的往期嘉宾。——没错。创新艺人经纪公司（CAA）的创始人。——这在好莱坞是天大的新闻，是地动山摇级别的事。我是说，迈克尔·奥维茨把 CAA 打造成了一股力量，不只在好莱坞，而是在整个创意圈。当时唯一能与各大制片厂的权力相抗衡的就是 CAA。一个在 CAA 当创始人、当一号的人，跑去当二号，这本身就说明了很多问题。而且你知道吗？

[1:19:56]

It also speaks to what Eisner had built and assembled at Disney, especially after Cap Cities.Right.Like, it was the place to be in media.And it was almost immediately a horrible decision.Yeah.On both sides.Ovitz was an agent.Eisner was an executive.This was a bad idea from the start.You know what the job of a president and COO is?

这也说明了艾斯纳在迪士尼建起和聚拢了什么，尤其是在收购大都会之后。——对。就是说，那时候迪士尼是媒体行业最值得去的地方。——而这几乎立刻就被证明是个糟糕透顶的决定。——是啊。对双方都是。——奥维茨是经纪人，艾斯纳是职业经理人。这从一开始就是个坏主意。你知道一位总裁兼 COO 的工作是什么吗？

[1:20:21]

It's to sit in meetings all day, herd cats, make aligned decisions, tell people no, don't people please, make sure that the thing runs, and manage processes that take a really long time with tens or hundreds of thousands of employees to carry out.The job of being an agent is being liked, saying yes, wielding your power, making things happen quick, being involved in 15 projects at once, or in Michael Ovitz's case, 500 projects at once.The day-to-day operations of being the number two at Disney could not have been more different than the skill set he had perfected at CAA.Yep. So Ovitz lasts just over a year at Disney and leaves in December 1996 with a $140 million severance package.Because neither Ovitz nor Eisner thought there was any chance this was going to fall apart.And so the Walt Disney Company was willing to put in a contract and say, if you don't make it X amount of time, then you get $140 million extra.Yep.Now, all of this, frankly, is just window dressing on what the real problem is.The real problem is Disney animation.Hmm. That's interesting.Ben, you talked about what the movies were after 1994, and some of them were good, but it's a downhill slide.And by the time you get to the end of that period, Atlantis, Treasure Planet, these are bad movies.

是整天坐在会议里、把一堆各行其是的人拢到一起、做出对齐的决策、对人说不、不去讨好所有人、确保这台机器转起来，以及管理那些要靠几万甚至几十万员工去执行、周期极长的流程。而当经纪人的工作是：被人喜欢、说「行」、运用你的权力、让事情快速发生、同时插手 15 个项目——或者在迈克尔·奥维茨的情况下，同时插手 500 个项目。在迪士尼当二号的日常运营工作，跟他在 CAA 磨炼到炉火纯青的那套技能，简直不能再不一样了。——对。所以奥维茨在迪士尼只待了一年多，1996 年 12 月带着一份 1.4 亿美元的离职补偿离开。——因为奥维茨和艾斯纳都不认为这件事有任何可能崩掉。所以华特迪士尼公司愿意在合同里写：如果你干不满 X 时间，你就额外拿 1.4 亿美元。——对。——不过说实话，这一切都只是表面装饰，真正的问题不在这儿。真正的问题是迪士尼动画。——嗯，有意思。——本，你刚才讲了 1994 年之后那些电影，其中有几部是好的，但整体是一路下滑。等你走到那段时期的末尾，《失落的帝国》《星银岛》——这些是糟糕的电影。

[1:21:48] Ben Gilbert

Yeah. And with Capital Cities, ABC, ESPN coming in, it's a little bit confusing how to think about and organize the company.Because before, you had this nice, tidy flywheel business.You make films with characters that people love on these universally relatable journeys.You make money at the box office, home video parks, consumer products, and then you recycle the IP every seven years.It's articulatable in one sentence.When they bought Capital Cities, it's totally different.Owning TV stations that generate revenue from advertising, from cable subscriptions, mostly using one-time use content that is not evergreen, most of which you don't create yourself in-house.I mean, it can be profitable and sometimes fantastically profitable, but it's worth acknowledging that that's a totally different business model.And now you have these two completely different sort of business model, operating model things under one roof.And bringing in Michael Ovitz, what was he supposed to run?

是啊。而且随着大都会、ABC、ESPN 进来，怎么去理解和组织这家公司变得有点混乱了。因为在此之前，你有一门干净利落的飞轮生意：你做电影，里面是人人都喜欢的角色、走的是人人都能共情的旅程；你靠票房、家庭录像、乐园、消费品赚钱，然后每七年把 IP 循环再利用一次。一句话就能说清楚。而当他们买下大都会之后，就完全不同了：你拥有一堆电视台，收入来自广告和有线订阅，用的大多是一次性消费、不具备长青属性的内容，而且其中大部分不是你自己在内部创造的。我是说，它可以赚钱，有时候能赚得惊人地多，但值得承认的是，那是一套完全不同的商业模式。而现在你把这两套截然不同的商业模式、运营模式放在了同一个屋檐下。那么把迈克尔·奥维茨请进来，他到底该管什么？

[1:22:51]

Right.Because they're actually two very different things.Yep. Yep.So all this, and, you know, in animations now without Katzenberg, Roy E. is still there, but a lot of the talent is bleeding out to DreamWorks.Even the talent that stays, they're getting competitive offers from DreamWorks, so Disney has to pay them more, so all their costs in animation are going up.It's really a downward spiral.And for the first couple years, it didn't really matter that much because the parks were still doing great.They still had all the great IP from the Disney Renaissance that was driving everything that they could, you know, put into the parks.Yeah, because they don't make most of their money from actual profits at the box office when the movie comes out the first time, there's a delayed impact to animation sucking that doesn't show up in the financials until way later.Yes.Or until something happens to the parks, which is exactly what happens in September 2001 with September 11th, obviously national tragedy.But Disney's parks business basically instantly falls off a cliff.I mean, it's like COVID for Disney parks for the few weeks and months after September 11th.All of a sudden, this crown jewel asset within the empire just goes to, you know, close to zero.

对。因为它们其实是两个非常不同的东西。——对，对。所以这一切之下，动画现在没有了卡曾伯格，罗伊·E 还在，但很多人才在往梦工厂流失。就算是留下来的人才，也在收到梦工厂的竞争性报价，所以迪士尼必须给他们加钱，于是动画的成本全线上升。这真是一个向下的螺旋。——而头几年这其实没那么要紧，因为乐园还很好。他们仍然拥有迪士尼文艺复兴留下的所有好 IP，可以把这些东西源源不断地放进乐园里。——是啊，因为他们大部分利润并不来自电影首次上映时的票房，所以「动画变烂」这件事对财务的影响是延迟的，要很久以后才会显现。——是的。——或者要等到乐园出事，而这正是 2001 年 9 月发生的事：9·11，显然是一场国家级悲剧。但迪士尼的乐园业务基本上是瞬间断崖式下跌。我是说，9·11 之后的那几周几个月，对迪士尼乐园而言就像新冠疫情一样。突然之间，这块帝国内部的皇冠明珠资产直接掉到了接近零。

[1:24:23] David Rosenthal

Yeah.Real bad.Yep.I mean, for a few weeks, zero planes are in the air.And for years after that, people don't feel safe traveling.Yep.Not to mention it triggers this, like, consumer spending impact.Yep.Not good if you're running a high fixed cost theme park business.Yep.Yep.So Disney stock falls nearly 25% in the days after the September 11th attacks.Fairly quickly thereafter, they're forced to close the vast majority of the Disney retail stores that they had opened in malls across America.The operating profit from the whole consumer products division had already been slowly ticking down as no new good IP was coming out of Disney animation to sell dolls and costumes.Now it's down to like a trickle.The worst part of all of this, for Michael Eisner at least, is that the Bass family, which to this point are still Disney's largest shareholders and Michael's strongest supporters among the shareholder base.In the days after September 11th, they face a margin call on their other investments.They have to become forced sellers of $2 billion worth of Disney shares, which puts even further downward pressure on the Disney stock, which has already just fallen by 25%.They sell the majority of their Disney holdings in a block transaction.

是啊。非常糟糕。——对。我是说，有几周时间天上一架飞机都没有。而在那之后好几年里，人们都不觉得出行是安全的。——对。更别提它还触发了消费支出层面的冲击。——对。如果你经营的是高固定成本的主题乐园生意，这可不妙。——对，对。所以在 9·11 袭击之后的几天里，迪士尼股价下跌了近 25%。此后不久，他们被迫关闭了此前在全美各大商场开出的绝大多数迪士尼零售店。整个消费品部门的营业利润本来就已经在缓慢下滑，因为迪士尼动画已经拿不出新的好 IP 来卖玩偶和服装了。现在更是只剩涓涓细流。而对迈克尔·艾斯纳来说，这一切里最糟糕的部分是：巴斯家族——到此时仍是迪士尼最大的股东，也是股东群体里对迈克尔支持最坚定的人——在 9·11 之后的几天里，因为他们别的投资被追加保证金（margin call），被迫成为卖家，抛售了价值 20 亿美元的迪士尼股票，这又给已经下跌 25% 的迪士尼股价施加了进一步的下行压力。他们通过一笔大宗交易卖掉了自己持有的大部分迪士尼股份。

[1:25:53] David Rosenthal

And overnight, Eisner's support in the shareholder base, or at least the biggest bulk of it, is like gone.Disney is now trading at depressed levels.I mean, it's almost like 1984 or all over again.I know, right?

于是一夜之间，艾斯纳在股东群体中的支持——至少是最大的那一块——就没了。迪士尼此时的股价处于被压低的水平。我是说，这几乎就像 1984 年重演了一遍。——是吧？

[1:26:05]

Could there be corporate raiders showing up to break up the company?It's eerily similar.Animation in the dumps.Before it was Parks holding the company up, but now it's ESPN holding the company up.Exactly.And even ESPN for, you know, a short period of time is shaky, like sporting events stop after 9-11.It's a weird time for the country.Yep.And then, just when it seemed that things couldn't get any worse at Disney in the years after 9-11,On November 30th, 2003, Roy E. Disney announces that he is resigning from the Disney board of directors,citing, quote,Man, this really is a mirror of 20 years earlier.Is it ever?

会不会又有企业狙击手冒出来要拆分公司？——像得诡异。动画一落千丈。——只不过上次是乐园在撑着公司，这次是 ESPN 在撑着公司。——正是。而且就连 ESPN 也有一小段时间是摇晃的——9·11 之后体育赛事都停了。那对整个国家来说都是一段很怪的日子。——对。然后，就在 9·11 之后那几年、看上去迪士尼已经不可能更糟的时候，2003 年 11 月 30 日，罗伊·E·迪士尼宣布辞去迪士尼董事会职务，理由是他所说的————天哪，这真的是二十年前的一面镜子。——可不是嘛。

[1:26:55] David Rosenthal

Except this time, it all plays out in public.Because Roy and Stanley Gold, his business partner, who also resigns from the board,would promptly turn around and launch a first-of-its-kind public grassroots shareholder campaignwith the website SaveDisney.com with the stated goal of mounting a proxy vote to oust Michael Eisneras the CEO of the Walt Disney Company?

只不过这一次，整件事是在公众面前上演的。因为罗伊和他的生意伙伴斯坦利·戈尔德——后者也从董事会辞职了——很快就转身发起了一场史无前例的公开草根股东运动，建了个网站 SaveDisney.com，公开宣称的目标是发动一场代理权投票，把迈克尔·艾斯纳从华特迪士尼公司 CEO 的位子上赶下来。

[1:27:29] David Rosenthal

Ben, this playbook of starting a website of SaveCompanyX.com, like an insider resigning from the company,starting a website and a public grassroots campaign,would famously be repeated once more in American corporate history.Do you know what company?

本，这套打法——一个内部人从公司辞职，建一个 SaveCompanyX.com 的网站，发起一场公开的草根运动——在美国企业史上还被著名地复刻过一次。你知道是哪家公司吗？

[1:27:47]

Hmm.No.SavePapaJohns.com.No way.Yeah.Save Disney and Save Papa John's.Wow.Oh, man.Well, before we tell the story of Save Disney and Disney's ultimate leadership transition to Bob Igerthat would come out of it, now is a great time to thank one of our favorite companies, Sentry.That's right.That's S-E-N-T-R-Y, like someone standing guard.Which is what they do for developers.Sentry helps teams debug everything from errors to latency issues, basically any software problem,and fix them before users get mad.It is considered, quote-unquote, not bad by millions of developers out there.And David, this might be one of the most on-theme sponsor moments that we have ever had on Acquired.We are about to spend a good chunk of time on the Disney Plus launch later in the episode.Yes.And think about what that launch actually was.One service going live on basically every device on Earth all at once.Phones, video game consoles, smart TVs, streaming sticks, tablets, all ready for tens of millions of subscribers on day one.At that scale, things break in places you've never seen.Disney Plus launched with Sentry as the centralized error logging service behind it.So when something broke, the team knew exactly why it broke, on which device, and in which release, all before the angry email started.

嗯……不知道。——SavePapaJohns.com（拯救棒约翰）。——不会吧。——真的。拯救迪士尼，和拯救棒约翰。——哇。——哦，天哪。那么，在讲「拯救迪士尼」以及由此带来的迪士尼最终向鲍勃·艾格交棒的故事之前，现在正是感谢我们最喜欢的公司之一 Sentry 的好时机。——没错。拼作 S-E-N-T-R-Y，就像一个站岗的哨兵——这正是他们为开发者做的事。Sentry 帮助团队调试从报错到延迟问题的一切，基本上任何软件问题，并在用户发火之前把它修好。全球数百万开发者对它的评价是「还不赖」。——大卫，这可能是 Acquired 有史以来最贴题的一次赞助商时刻。我们本期节目后面会花不少时间讲 Disney+ 的上线。——是的。——想想那次上线到底是怎么回事：一项服务在几乎地球上所有设备上同时上线——手机、游戏主机、智能电视、流媒体棒、平板，第一天就要面对数千万订户。在那个量级上，东西会在你从没见过的地方坏掉。Disney+ 上线时，背后的集中式错误日志服务用的就是 Sentry。所以一旦有东西坏了，团队能准确知道它为什么坏、在哪台设备上坏、在哪个版本里坏——全都发生在愤怒的邮件飞来之前。

[1:29:25]

And here's the wild part.That was 2019.What Sentry does now goes a step further.Software is starting to fix itself in production.And the clever thing is how they pull it off.So Sentry is already watching your app in production.So the second it breaks, it has the whole picture.Error logs, the trace, the release that it started in.It hands that context straight to the tools developers already use, whether that's Claude Code or Cursor or Sentry's new agent, Sear.And it automatically finds the root cause and opens the PR for the human to review.That is what makes software self-healing.And it's why 200,000 organizations run on Sentry.Yes, thanks to Sentry for making sure everyone's favorite stuff, including Disney Plus, which, let me tell you, is our favorite stuff in this household, actually works.They've got an incredible customer list, including not only Friends of the Show Anthropic and Vercel, but also Cursor, Linear, GitHub, and many more.If you want to learn more, go check out Sentry.io slash acquired.And one last thing, Sentry is the host this year of the official Acquired Community Meetup with David and me in San Francisco, Thursday, September 17th at Fort Mason.David and I are going to have a live conversation going behind the scenes of Acquired.

而离谱的地方在于：那是 2019 年。Sentry 现在做的事又往前迈了一步——软件正开始在生产环境里自我修复。而聪明之处在于他们是怎么做到的：Sentry 本来就在盯着你线上的应用，所以它一坏，Sentry 手里就有完整的图景——错误日志、调用链、问题起始的那个版本。它把这份上下文直接交给开发者已经在用的工具，不管是 Claude Code、Cursor，还是 Sentry 自己的新 Agent「Seer」。它会自动找到根因，并开一个 PR 让人来审。这就是「软件自愈」的含义，也是为什么有 20 万家组织跑在 Sentry 上。——是的，感谢 Sentry 让大家最爱的东西——包括 Disney+，我跟你讲，在我们家这就是最爱的东西——真的能正常运转。他们的客户名单极其惊人，不只有本节目的朋友 Anthropic 和 Vercel，还有 Cursor、Linear、GitHub 等等。想了解更多，去看看 Sentry.io/acquired。——最后一件事：今年 Sentry 是官方 Acquired 社区聚会的主办方，我和大卫会在 9 月 17 日星期四于旧金山梅森堡（Fort Mason）现场。我和大卫会做一场现场对谈，聊聊 Acquired 的幕后。

[1:30:41]

We'll have food and drink and a room full of the Acquired community.Tickets are $20 and 100% of the proceeds will go to the Susan Wojcicki Foundation for Early Detection of Lung Cancer.So great.It really is.Space is limited to 500 people only, so grab your spots now at acquired.fm slash meetup, and we look forward to seeing you there.Indeed.All right, David.So the Save Disney campaign.First, let me just open with an excerpt from Ride of a Lifetime, Bob Iger's book.This is about the resignation letter that Roy had written.Which he sent copies to Eisner, the board, and then the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the LA Times.He went on a blistering three-page critique of Michael's stewardship of the company.The first 10 years had been a success, he acknowledged, but the latter years had been defined by seven distinct failures, which Roy laid out point by point.One, a failure to bring ABC primetime back from its ratings abyss.Two, the consistent micromanagement of everyone around you with the resulting loss of morale throughout the company.Three, a lack of adequate investment into theme parks, building on the cheap that has depressed park attendance.Which, that is counter to every other thing that I've heard.

会有吃的喝的，还有满屋子的 Acquired 社区成员。门票 20 美元，全部收益将捐给苏珊·沃西基肺癌早期检测基金会（Susan Wojcicki Foundation for Early Detection of Lung Cancer）。——太好了。——真的很好。名额仅限 500 人，所以现在就去 acquired.fm/meetup 抢位置吧，我们期待在那儿见到你。——确实。好了，大卫。说回「拯救迪士尼」运动。首先，我想先念一段鲍勃·艾格自传《一生的旅程》（Ride of a Lifetime）里的摘录，讲的是罗伊写的那封辞职信。他把副本同时寄给了艾斯纳、董事会，以及《华尔街日报》《纽约时报》和《洛杉矶时报》。他洋洋洒洒写了三页，猛烈抨击迈克尔对公司的经营。他承认头十年是成功的，但后面这些年被七项明确的失败所定义，罗伊一条一条列了出来：第一，未能把 ABC 黄金时段从收视率的深渊里拉回来。第二，对身边每一个人持续不断的微观管理，导致全公司士气流失。第三，对主题乐园投资不足、廉价施工，压低了乐园客流。——不过这一条跟我听到的所有其他说法都相反。

[1:31:57]

I mean, yeah.Well, park attendance was down because of September 11th.Right.Michael sort of famously had an eye for making the theme parks great.The sort of second only since Walt.Nobody invested in the parks like Michael Eisner.Right, right.Four, the perception by all of our stakeholders that the company is rapacious, soulless, and always looking for the quick buck rather than long-term value, which is leading to a loss of public trust.Disney was, by this point, distributing Pixar's early films, but Eisner and Pixar had a very contentious relationship.We'll put a pin in that for now.Yep.Five, a creative brain drain from the company due to mismanagement and low morale.Six, a failure to build good relationships with Disney's partners, particularly Pixar.And seven, your consistent refusal to establish a clear succession plan.This is a brutal letter.Yeah.And then Roy ends the letter with,Michael, it is my sincere belief that it is you who should be leaving and not me.Accordingly, I once again call for your resignation and retirement.Ooh, man.So what is Roy so upset about?

我是说，对啊。乐园客流下滑是因为 9·11。——对。迈克尔在把主题乐园做好这件事上是出了名的有眼光，某种程度上仅次于沃尔特本人。没有人像迈克尔·艾斯纳那样往乐园里投钱。——对，对。——第四，我们所有利益相关方都感觉这家公司贪婪、无魂、总是在追逐快钱而不是长期价值，这正在导致公众信任的流失。——到这个时候，迪士尼已经在发行皮克斯的早期影片了，但艾斯纳和皮克斯的关系非常紧张。这个我们先埋个伏笔。——对。第五，由于管理不善和士气低落，公司出现创意人才的大量流失。第六，未能与迪士尼的合作伙伴建立良好关系，尤其是皮克斯。第七，你一贯拒绝确立清晰的接班计划。——这封信真够狠的。——是啊。然后罗伊在信的结尾写道：「迈克尔，我真诚地相信，该离开的人是你，不是我。因此，我再一次要求你辞职并退休。」——哦，天。那罗伊到底在气什么？

[1:33:10] Ben Gilbert

Amazingly, Disney animation had continued to go downhill.Right.2003 had Brother Bear.2004 had Home on the Range.2005 was Chicken Little.You've never heard of any of these films, I'm sure.Maybe you've heard 2007, they had Meet the Robinsons,which I guess would have been in development.Yeah, yeah, yeah.Bolt was the end of this misery in 2008.Yeah.I mean, if you are a little bit younger than David and I, call it 25, maybe 30,you probably don't actually have any Disney movies from your childhood that you remember,the way that we remember Aladdin and The Lion King and The Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast.Totally.But yeah, back to Roy and this Save Disney campaign.I mean, look, Roy, as we already talked about earlier, he's a complicated guy.He's so upset about Disney animation.I mean, technically, he's the one in charge of Disney animation.So like, who's he upset at here?

惊人的是，迪士尼动画还在继续走下坡路。——对。——2003 年是《熊的传说》（Brother Bear），2004 年是《牧场是我家》（Home on the Range），2005 年是《四眼天鸡》（Chicken Little）。我敢说这些片名你一部都没听说过。也许你听过 2007 年的《魔幻奇缘》（Meet the Robinsons），我猜那部当时应该已经在开发中了。——对对对。——2008 年的《闪电狗》（Bolt）算是这段苦难的终点。——是啊。我是说，如果你比我和大卫再年轻一点，比如 25 岁、也许 30 岁，你大概真的没有任何一部童年记忆里的迪士尼电影，不像我们记得《阿拉丁》《狮子王》《小美人鱼》《美女与野兽》那样。——完全同意。不过说回罗伊和这场「拯救迪士尼」运动。听着，罗伊这个人，我们前面也说过，是很复杂的。他对迪士尼动画气成这样——可严格来说，负责迪士尼动画的正是他自己。所以他到底在气谁？

[1:34:05] David Rosenthal

Like, himself?But I think really, like, what this is really about and Roy's superpower for Disney was thateven if he wasn't, you know, the best executive or leader or in touch with the marketplace,as evidenced by the total flop of Fantasia 2000, he absolutely was the steward and protectorof the Disney spirit.And it was so clear that the Disney spirit, the creative spirit, the spirit that made these timeless storiesthat got handed down from generation to generation had left the building.And the company just spread too thin.It's got two completely different business models doing two completely different things from this merger with ABC.Yep.So what happens next?

气他自己吗？但我觉得这件事真正的实质、以及罗伊对迪士尼而言的超能力在于：就算他不是最好的高管、最好的领导者，也不见得懂市场——《幻想曲 2000》的彻底扑街就是证据——他绝对是迪士尼精神的守护者和保管人。而当时太明显了：迪士尼精神、那种创意精神、那种能造出代代相传的不朽故事的精神，已经离开这栋楼了。而且公司摊得太薄了。因为跟 ABC 的合并，它有了两套完全不同的商业模式，在做两件完全不同的事。——对。那接下来发生了什么？

[1:34:54] David Rosenthal

Roy and Stanley had resigned in a huff from the board at the end of 2003.Right at the holidays.Disney's annual shareholder meeting is coming up in March of 2004, where the vote is going to happen to,hopefully in their minds, oust Michael Eisner as CEO of Disney.Disney, in response, schedules an analyst day, an investor day for the company in Orlando in February of 2004,ahead of the meeting to sort of shore up support for Michael and shore up support for the stock.And they have good news to share.Pirates of the Caribbean is going to save the company.The movie did great based on a Disneyland ride.I mean, you can't write a better story.Can't write a better story.Revenue for the quarter is up 19%.Johnny Depp riding in, going to save Michael Eisner's job.They all wake up the morning of the investor day.Eisner's there.Bob Iger is there.By this point in time, he's been promoted to be president and COO of the Walt Disney Company.And they read the news that Comcast, the Philadelphia based cable company, is making a hostile takeover bid to acquire Disney for $54 billion in Comcast stock.I remember when this news hit, it was shocking.I mean, it was shocking.The idea that a cable company, a cable company could take over the Walt Disney Company was like offensive.

罗伊和斯坦利在 2003 年底怒气冲冲地从董事会辞职，正好赶在假期前后。迪士尼的年度股东大会将在 2004 年 3 月召开，届时将进行投票——在他们的设想里，希望能把迈克尔·艾斯纳赶下迪士尼 CEO 的位子。作为回应，迪士尼在股东大会之前、2004 年 2 月于奥兰多安排了一场分析师日、投资者日，用来为迈克尔和股价争取支持。而且他们有好消息可以讲：《加勒比海盗》要拯救公司了。这部片子表现极好，而它改编自迪士尼乐园的一个游乐项目。我是说，你编都编不出更好的故事。——编不出更好的故事。——当季营收增长 19%。约翰尼·德普骑马杀到，要来保住迈克尔·艾斯纳的饭碗。——结果投资者日当天早上他们一觉醒来，艾斯纳在场，鲍勃·艾格也在场——此时他已经被提拔为华特迪士尼公司的总裁兼首席运营官——他们读到的新闻是：总部在费城的有线电视公司康卡斯特（Comcast）发起了敌意收购要约，要用 540 亿美元的康卡斯特股票收购迪士尼。——我记得这条消息出来的时候，真是震惊。我是说，太震惊了。一家有线电视公司——一家有线电视公司——居然可能拿下华特迪士尼公司，这个念头简直是冒犯。

[1:36:33] David Rosenthal

There were practically no more hated, you know, genre of corporations in America than cable operators, largely in part thanks to the Walt Disney Company and ESPN riling everybody up against them.And that they would be taking over with stock this treasure of America.Honestly, for Roy and for Stanley and their Save Disney campaign, it was the best thing that could happen because to many people, they look at this and they're like, how low has the Walt Disney Company fallen?

在美国，几乎没有哪一类公司比有线运营商更招人恨了，而这在很大程度上还得「归功于」华特迪士尼公司和 ESPN 一直煽动大家去恨他们。而现在这样一家公司居然要用股票拿下美国的这件国宝。说实话，对罗伊和斯坦利、对他们的「拯救迪士尼」运动来说，这是能发生的最好的事。因为在很多人看来，他们一看这个就想：华特迪士尼公司到底沦落到什么地步了？

[1:37:02]

Yeah.But Disney is doing great.The parks business was down because of September 11th, but it's coming back.Pirates of the Caribbean is a big success.They've got this great partnership with Pixar.They've got freaking ESPN, which is still crushing it.Why does Comcast want to buy Disney?

是啊。可是迪士尼明明干得不错啊。乐园业务因为 9·11 下滑，但正在恢复。《加勒比海盗》大获成功。他们跟皮克斯有一份很棒的合作。他们还他妈的有 ESPN，那玩意儿还在碾压。那康卡斯特为什么想买迪士尼？

[1:37:19] David Rosenthal

They sense this opening, this weakness.And wouldn't it be amazing if Comcast could all of a sudden acquire its most important supplier in ESPN that has all of this leverage over them?They're constantly going to war with ESPN every year to renegotiate the carriage rates.Be nice to own it.We might be able to get ESPN.Holy crap.Let's try it.Yep.Oh, man.Just to underscore this ESPN thing, friend of the show, Ben Thompson, has a great reflection on all this.Walt Disney's chart, the famous flywheel one, may have been a very satisfying business model.But the reality of Disney's TV business is that it was scalable in a way that the Disney chart could never be.The beauty of the cable bundle is that nearly every household in America paid for it every single month,regardless of whether or not Disney had a hit TV show or a must-watch sporting event.Thanks to its suite of channels anchored by ESPN, Disney received a big chunk of that money, and it grew like clockwork.In that world, Walt Disney's model was a nice side business to the real moneymaker.Yep.Yep.Man, it's all about ESPN, everything that's happening.Yep.The cable network's operating income, the profit within the Walt Disney Company at this point, was $2 billion.

他们嗅到了这个开口、这个弱点。而且，如果康卡斯特能突然把自己最重要的供应商 ESPN 收入囊中——那个对他们握有巨大筹码的 ESPN——那不是太美妙了吗？他们每年都要跟 ESPN 为重谈转播费打一次仗。要是能拥有它就好了。我们说不定能拿到 ESPN。我的天。试试看吧。——对。——哦，天哪。为了再强调一下 ESPN 这件事：本节目的朋友本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）对这一切有一段很棒的反思——「华特·迪士尼那张图，那个著名的飞轮，也许是一个令人非常满意的商业模式。但迪士尼电视业务的现实是：它具备一种迪士尼那张图永远无法企及的可扩展性。有线套餐的美妙之处在于，几乎每一个美国家庭每个月都在为它付费，不管迪士尼那个月有没有一部爆款电视剧、有没有一场必看的体育赛事。凭借以 ESPN 为核心的一整套频道，迪士尼拿走了这笔钱里很大的一块，而且它像钟表一样稳定地增长。在那个世界里，华特·迪士尼的模式只是真正印钞机旁边一门不错的副业。」——对，对。天哪，所有正在发生的事，归根到底都是 ESPN。——对。此时华特迪士尼公司内部，有线电视网板块的营业利润是 20 亿美元。

[1:38:37] David Rosenthal

Company-wide, they were only making $4.5 billion.So, like, almost 50% of the company's total profits is just these cable networks.Yeah.Which is really ESPN.ESPN.So, on the back of this narrative of how low the Disney company has sunk under leadership of Michael Eisner,which gets ridiculous, but it's the narrative out there,the two major shareholder advisory services back the Save Disney campaign and Roy,and they advise shareholders to vote to withhold their support of Michael Eisner as CEO at the March shareholder meeting.And CalPERS, the big California pension fund,they announced that they're going to vote their Disney shares against Eisner and vote for him to resign.So, all of this comes to a head on March 3rd, 2004, at the Disney annual shareholder meeting,which hilariously had been scheduled that year to take place in Philadelphia, headquarters of Comcast.They're, like, just a few blocks away.At the end of the day, 43% of the shareholder base votes to withhold support for Eisner as CEO, which is a huge number.You don't renew a CEO's contract when 43% of your shareholders don't want that CEO.Yep.So, the Disney board meets in an emergency executive session without management present,

而全公司总共才赚 45 亿美元。所以，公司总利润里差不多 50% 就来自这些有线频道。——是啊。而那基本上就是 ESPN。——就是 ESPN。——于是，在「迪士尼公司在迈克尔·艾斯纳治下沦落到何等地步」这套叙事的推动下——这套说法已经荒谬了，但它就是外面流传的叙事——两大股东投票咨询机构都支持「拯救迪士尼」运动和罗伊，建议股东在 3 月的股东大会上投票撤回对迈克尔·艾斯纳担任 CEO 的支持。而加州公务员退休基金 CalPERS 这家大型养老基金也宣布，他们将用手中的迪士尼股票投票反对艾斯纳、支持他辞职。所有这一切在 2004 年 3 月 3 日的迪士尼年度股东大会上迎来了摊牌——而好笑的是，那一年的会场恰好定在费城，也就是康卡斯特的总部所在地。——他们就隔着几个街区。——最终，43% 的股东投票撤回对艾斯纳担任 CEO 的支持，这是一个巨大的数字。当你有 43% 的股东不想要这个 CEO 时，你是不会给他续约的。——对。所以迪士尼董事会在管理层不在场的情况下召开了紧急执行会议，

[1:40:00] David Rosenthal

during which they decide to remove Michael as chairman, but let him remain CEO of Disney for the moment.They announce this.The Disney stock jumps in response.Meanwhile, Comcast stock has been falling.So, a few weeks later, Comcast formally withdraws their bid.But this doesn't placate Roy and Stanley in the Save Disney campaign.Eisner is still CEO.A few months after that, Michael announces that he will leave the company when his contract expires at the end of 2006.So, he's announced that he's going to resign.But now there's a question.Okay, who's going to take over?

会上他们决定免去迈克尔的董事长职务，但暂时让他继续担任迪士尼 CEO。他们宣布了这个决定，迪士尼股价随之上涨。与此同时，康卡斯特的股价一直在跌。所以几周之后，康卡斯特正式撤回了报价。但这并没有安抚住罗伊、斯坦利和「拯救迪士尼」运动——艾斯纳还是 CEO。又过了几个月，迈克尔宣布：等他的合同在 2006 年底到期时，他将离开公司。所以他等于宣布了自己会辞职。但现在出现了一个问题：好，那谁来接？

[1:40:45] David Rosenthal

Yep.The board announces that it's going to initiate a public, high-stakes CEO search.And they intend to name Michael's successor by June of 2005.Everyone, everyone believes it's got to be an external candidate that is going to come in and take over Disney,just like Wells and Eisner came in 20 years ago.Well, do you know what the press release says?

对。董事会宣布，他们将启动一场公开的、高风险的 CEO 遴选，并打算在 2005 年 6 月前确定迈克尔的继任者。所有人、所有人都相信，一定会是一位外部候选人进来接管迪士尼，就像二十年前威尔斯和艾斯纳空降那样。——那，你知道那份新闻稿里是怎么写的吗？

[1:41:10] Ben Gilbert

Who it names?Well, it says that there will be external candidates and that there will be one internal candidate.Initially, it actually said internal and external candidates.And Bob Iger was reviewing the press release because he's COO.And he goes to the board and says, wait, Michael's going to be CEO for another year?

它点了谁的名？——稿子里说会有外部候选人，还会有一位内部候选人。最初的版本其实写的是「内部和外部候选人」。而鲍勃·艾格因为是 COO，负责审这份新闻稿。他去找董事会说：等等，迈克尔还要再当一年 CEO？

[1:41:29] Ben Gilbert

Bob's like, you can't really do this.Are there other internal candidates or is it just me?And they say, it's just you.And he said, well, then you need to put me in the press release because there's going to be a power.Otherwise, it's going to be chaos around here.Right.People will need someone to look to for leadership because no one's going to be looking to Michael.He's a lame duck.And there's going to be all these people vying for power.The company will not function.You have to say external candidates and Bob Iger.And they agree and say, okay, then we'll do it.So Bob is announced as the internal candidate.And the board promises they will run an exhaustive search for external candidates.Bob, and he recounts all of this in Ride of a Lifetime, comes up with, I think, one of the most brilliant campaign framings that I have ever heard.And he actually hires like a political campaign consultant to help him with this.And he realizes that, okay, I am the number two to an unpopular incumbent.I'm like the vice president of a massively unpopular president right now who has just become a lame duck.Right.Every board member's first, second, and third question for me should be, why should we pick you when you were a part of the previous administration?

鲍勃的意思是：你们不能这么干。到底还有别的内部候选人，还是只有我一个？他们说：只有你。他就说：那你们就必须把我的名字写进新闻稿里，否则这里会出现权力真空，会天下大乱。——对。人们需要有个人可以指望、可以当领导，因为没人会去指望迈克尔了——他是个跛脚鸭。而且会有一堆人开始争权夺利，公司就转不动了。你们必须写「外部候选人以及鲍勃·艾格」。——于是他们同意了，说：好，那就这么办。所以鲍勃被公布为内部候选人，而董事会承诺会对外部候选人展开一场彻底的搜寻。鲍勃在《一生的旅程》里把这些都讲了——他想出了我听过的最高明的竞选框架之一。他甚至真的请了一位政治竞选顾问来帮他。他意识到：好，我是一位不受欢迎的在任者的二号人物。我现在就像一位极不受欢迎、而且刚刚变成跛脚鸭的总统的副总统。——对。——每一位董事对我提的第一、第二、第三个问题都会是：你既然是上一届政府的一员，我们凭什么选你？

[1:42:45]

And how did you screw up so badly?Yeah.So he realizes that his only chance is to completely reframe the situation.This isn't about what happened in the past.This is only about the future.Which both is the right way to look at this and it is Bob's only chance to win.Yes.So he proposes to the board in his candidacy three pillars of his vision and strategy for the future of the Walt Disney Company.Number one, we need to devote most of our time and capital to the creation of high quality branded content.AKA we need to revive Disney animation and along with it, the Disney flywheel.Spot on.Especially now because the amount of content in the world is exploding.We're here entering the social media era.There's Facebook.We're about to get YouTube.Consumers have infinite choice for content.And the only way for a company like Disney to hope to try and still be relevant is to go back to making the very best content.And build a brand to be known for that so people know to look to you for that highest quality tier.And still, nobody is better positioned than Disney to do that.Even despite all the problems and distractions and the downfall of animation over the last 10 years, it's still Disney.Yep.

还有，你怎么会搞砸得这么厉害？——是啊。所以他意识到，他唯一的机会就是把整个局面彻底重新定义：这件事跟过去发生了什么无关，只跟未来有关。——这既是看待这件事的正确方式，也是鲍勃唯一的取胜机会。——是的。所以他在竞选中向董事会提出了自己对华特迪士尼公司未来的三大支柱。第一，我们必须把绝大部分时间和资本投入到「高质量的品牌化内容」的创造上。也就是说：我们必须复兴迪士尼动画，并连带复兴迪士尼飞轮。——一针见血。——尤其是在当下，因为世界上的内容量正在爆炸。我们正进入社交媒体时代，有了 Facebook，YouTube 也快来了。消费者面对的内容选择是无限的。而像迪士尼这样的公司想继续保持相关性，唯一的办法就是回到做最好的内容上去。——并且把品牌建成以此闻名，让人们知道要找最高质量的那一档就来找你。而且直到今天，也没有谁比迪士尼更适合做这件事。就算有过去十年那么多问题、干扰和动画的衰落，它仍然是迪士尼。——对。

[1:44:14]

So that's one.Two, we need to embrace technology to the fullest extent.Now, this sounds like, duh, why wouldn't you do that?But this is actually kind of a radical statement at this point in time.We're about to enter an era where the entire traditional media industry is going to be either running scared or actively trying to fight tech in Silicon Valley.Viacom is about to launch a lawsuit against YouTube to try and sue it out of existence.Everybody remembers what just happened to the music industry and Napster.Bob is saying, no, we are going to embrace technology.Both to produce fresh, new, cutting-edge content the way that Walt did, but also embrace technology as a distribution medium.Yes.And figure out how to use that to our advantage, not let technology be the reason for our downfall.Yep.And then Bob's third pillar of his strategy is expand global reach.We need to better penetrate certain markets, particularly the world's most populous countries like China and India.Unlike Walt's era, at this point, something like a third of the global population lives in those two countries.And Disney is all about scale economies, make the deepest, best, highest quality content and characters and stories possible,

这是第一条。第二，我们必须最大限度地拥抱技术。这听起来像废话，谁会不这么做呢？但在当时，这其实是一个相当激进的表态。我们即将进入一个整个传统媒体行业要么吓得四处逃窜、要么主动跟硅谷科技公司开战的时代。维亚康姆马上就要起诉 YouTube，想把它告到关门。所有人都记得音乐产业和 Napster 刚刚经历了什么。而鲍勃说：不，我们要拥抱技术。既用它像沃尔特当年那样去创造新鲜的、前沿的内容，也要把技术当作分发渠道来拥抱。——是的。并且想清楚怎么把它变成我们的优势，而不是让技术成为我们衰落的原因。——对。然后鲍勃战略的第三根支柱是：扩大全球触达。我们需要更好地渗透某些市场，特别是全球人口最多的国家，比如中国和印度。跟沃尔特的时代不同，在这个时间点，全球大约三分之一的人口住在这两个国家。而迪士尼的一切都建立在规模经济上——做出最深刻、最好、质量最高的内容、角色和故事，

[1:45:37]

and get as many people around the world to fall in love with them as possible.Yep.And we need to get into those two countries.Yep.So amazingly, Bob wins on this campaign.In March of 2005, the board announces Bob Iger will be the future CEO of the Walt Disney Company.They accelerate his start date and Michael's departure date to that September 2005, a year ahead of when Michael had initially announced.And the Michael Eisner era at Disney comes to an end after 21 years.It's so interesting.Michael Eisner's tenure at Disney, in my mind, is really two chapters.There's that whole first chapter that sort of ends with Frank Wells passing, Katzenberg leaving, the end of the great Disney animation era.And acquiring Capital Cities.But the ownership of Capital Cities is sort of that whole second era.Yes. Yeah. I think that's the way I would frame it too.He and Wells and Katzenberg did an incredible job turning around Disney in the first 10 years.That sort of went sideways in the second 10 years.But also, Michael made one of the greatest acquisitions of all time in the second 10 years.And because of all the drama, doesn't get anywhere near enough credit for it.Yeah. It's so interesting when you say the greatest acquisitions of all time, when I look at ABC Capital Cities,

然后让全世界尽可能多的人爱上它们。——对。——而我们必须进入这两个国家。——对。——于是，令人惊讶的是，鲍勃靠这套竞选赢了。2005 年 3 月，董事会宣布鲍勃·艾格将出任华特迪士尼公司未来的 CEO。他们把他的上任时间和迈克尔的离任时间都提前到了 2005 年 9 月，比迈克尔最初宣布的时间早了一年。迪士尼的迈克尔·艾斯纳时代在 21 年后落幕。——真的很有意思。在我看来，迈克尔·艾斯纳在迪士尼的任期其实是两个篇章。第一个篇章大致结束于弗兰克·威尔斯去世、卡曾伯格离开、伟大的迪士尼动画时代终结。——以及收购大都会。——而拥有大都会之后，基本上就是整个第二个时代。——是的，是啊。我也会这么划分。他和威尔斯、卡曾伯格在头十年把迪士尼扭转过来，干得了不起。第二个十年则跑偏了。但同时，迈克尔在第二个十年里做成了史上最伟大的收购之一，而因为那些戏剧性的风波，他远远没有得到应有的功劳。——是啊。不过有意思的是，当你说「史上最伟大的收购之一」时，我看 ABC / 大都会这笔交易——

[1:47:00]

it was because it had ESPN, but it also cost the company its strategic clarity.Yes.Disney never again would get to be just Disney.It's the flywheel business and the...ESPN business....affiliate slash advertising cable business.Yep.And it's worth it because buying ESPN was this pseudo-infinite wellspring of capital to fund everything else.But it cost the clarity.Yep. That's exactly right.By the numbers, Michael's tenure was unbelievable.He comes in with a market cap a little shy of $2 billion, leaves with it worth, I don't know, $50-ish billion.I think there was some dilution, so it wasn't quite a 25X, closer to a 20X of the stock.He comes in, revenue is $1.7 billion.He leaves at $31 billion.Yep.That's a 15% compound annual growth rate over his two decades.And net income goes from $97 million to $2.5 billion.Yeah.26X net income during his tenure.By the numbers, great.Great. And, you know, ESPN is arguments one, two, and three of why was he a great CEO.Yep. Yep. Yep.And also Disney's renaissance, but, like, I'd put that at four below ESPN, ESPN, and ESPN.And then the Disney renaissance, yeah.Yes.I don't know. You gotta count Lion King the musical for something.That's true. That's very true.

——它之所以伟大是因为里面有 ESPN，但它同时也让公司付出了「战略清晰度」的代价。——是的。——迪士尼从此再也没能只做迪士尼。它是那门飞轮生意，加上……——加上 ESPN 那门生意。——……加上附属台费兼广告的有线电视生意。——对。而这个代价是值得的，因为买下 ESPN 等于拿到了一口近乎无限的资本井，可以为其他一切提供资金。但它确实牺牲了清晰度。——对，完全正确。——从数字上看，迈克尔的任期是不可思议的。他接手时市值略低于 20 亿美元，离开时大概值 500 亿美元上下。中间有过一些稀释，所以股价并不完全是 25 倍，更接近 20 倍。他接手时营收是 17 亿美元，离开时是 310 亿美元。——对。——那是他这二十年里 15% 的复合年增长率。而净利润从 9700 万美元涨到 25 亿美元。——是啊。任期内净利润 26 倍。——从数字上看，很棒。——很棒。而且你知道，「他为什么是一位伟大的 CEO」这个问题的第一、第二、第三条理由都是 ESPN。——对对对。——当然还有迪士尼文艺复兴，但我会把它排在第四位，排在 ESPN、ESPN、ESPN 之后。——然后才是迪士尼文艺复兴，是啊。——是的。——我说不好，《狮子王》音乐剧总得算点分吧。——那倒是真的。非常真的。

[1:48:30] Ben Gilbert

So Bob Iger is named CEO.One of his first calls after he gets the news on, I think, a Sunday afternoon is to Steve Jobs,the then CEO of Pixar, in addition to being the CEO of Apple.And he writes in Ride of a Lifetime,I barely knew Steve at that point.He was typical Steve.How long have you worked for Michael?

于是鲍勃·艾格被任命为 CEO。他在得知消息之后——我记得是某个周日下午——最早打出的电话之一，是打给史蒂夫·乔布斯的：当时他既是苹果 CEO，也是皮克斯的 CEO。鲍勃在《一生的旅程》里写道：「那时我几乎不认识史蒂夫。他还是那个典型的史蒂夫。他问：你给迈克尔干了多久？

[1:48:57]

He asked.Ten years.Huh. He said.Well, I don't see how things will be any different, but sure.When the dust settles, be in touch.And it turned out that that phone call was probably the most important phone call in the history of the Walt Disney Company.But before we tell the story of Pixar,now is a great time to thank one of our favorite companies, WorkOS.Yes.So I want to start with a line that we quote on this show all the time.Focus on what makes your beer taste better.Yes.One of the great business metaphors from back when breweries ran their own power plants.All that electricity did nothing for the taste of the beer.And every era of software has its own version of the power plant.Right now, the cost of building software is collapsing to near zero.And you can build a real working product with AI writing 100% of the code.The stuff that differentiates you is what you build, your ideas, and how to serve customers.And this is where WorkOS comes in.Something that you absolutely should not build yourself is enterprise authentication.Nobody needs to roll their own.If you're selling software to B2B or enterprise buyers, they deeply care about their data and they care about security.They need things like SSO or SCIM, S-C-I-M, audit logs, role-based accounts, the entire checklist.

十年。他说：哦。那我看不出事情会有什么不同，不过行吧。等尘埃落定，保持联系。」——而事实证明，那通电话大概是华特迪士尼公司历史上最重要的一通电话。——不过在讲皮克斯的故事之前，现在正是感谢我们最喜欢的公司之一 WorkOS 的好时机。——是的。我想先引一句我们在这档节目里一直引用的话：「专注于那些能让你的啤酒更好喝的事。」——是的。这是一个很棒的商业隐喻，来自当年啤酒厂还自己发电的年代。所有那些电，对啤酒的口味毫无贡献。而软件的每个时代都有自己版本的「发电厂」。眼下，构建软件的成本正在坍缩到接近于零，你可以让 AI 写 100% 的代码，做出一个真正能跑的产品。真正让你与众不同的，是你构建的东西、你的想法，以及你如何服务客户。而这正是 WorkOS 登场的地方。有一样东西你绝对不该自己造，那就是企业级身份认证。没有人需要自己从头写一套。如果你把软件卖给 B2B 或企业客户，他们对自己的数据极其在意，也非常在意安全。他们需要 SSO（单点登录）、SCIM、审计日志、基于角色的账号权限——整张清单。

[1:50:19]

None of that is the sort of thing that you listeners can uniquely do well to make your product better.But all of it sits in between you and closing a deal with a customer.This is the whole reason WorkOS exists.They turn those enterprise requirements into drop-in APIs.Your team adds enterprise SSO in an afternoon instead of a couple months and gets back to the stuff that really differentiates your product.Yes.And that is why OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Friend of the Show, Anthropic, and hundreds of other AI startups build on WorkOS instead of building the power plant themselves.They just plug into the grid so the product that you built over a weekend can be ready for the enterprise on Monday.You can learn more at WorkOS.com and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.So during his CEO audition process, Bob Iger had completely lost faith that Disney animation can be fixed from within.And secretly, he concludes that the only viable path to restore Disney animation to its proper glory is to replace the entire leadership team with Pixar leadership.There's this famous moment that Bob writes about where he's at the opening parade of Hong Kong Disneyland in 2005.And he's watching all the floats go by.

这些东西里没有一样是各位听众能做得独一无二地好、从而让产品更出色的。但它们全都横在你和签下一个客户之间。这正是 WorkOS 存在的全部理由。他们把这些企业级要求变成了可以直接嵌入的 API。你的团队用一个下午——而不是两三个月——就能加上企业级 SSO，然后回到真正让你的产品与众不同的事情上去。——是的。这也是为什么 OpenAI、Cursor、Perplexity、本节目的朋友 Anthropic，以及数百家其他 AI 创业公司都构建在 WorkOS 上，而不是自己去建那座发电厂。他们只要接入电网，你周末做出来的产品到了周一就能面向企业客户交付。想了解更多请访问 WorkOS.com，就说是本和大卫让你来的。——那么，在他那场「CEO 面试」的过程中，鲍勃·艾格已经彻底不再相信迪士尼动画能靠内部力量修好。而且他私下里得出结论：让迪士尼动画恢复应有荣光的唯一可行路径，是把整个领导层换成皮克斯的领导层。鲍勃写过一个著名的瞬间：2005 年他在香港迪士尼乐园的开园游行现场，看着一辆辆花车经过。

[1:51:44]

And he sees Cinderella and Mickey and Snow White.And he realizes that there are no Disney characters from the last 10 years or so that are in this parade.And on the contrary, it's stuffed to the gills with Pixar characters.Yep.And that's the moment where he's like, you know what?

他看到了灰姑娘、米奇、白雪公主。然后他意识到：这场游行里没有任何一个来自过去十年左右的迪士尼角色。恰恰相反，游行里塞满了皮克斯的角色。——对。就是在那一刻他心想：你猜怎么着？

[1:52:06] Ben Gilbert

The path is clear.Pixar needs to take over Disney animation.And that's why he called Steve Jobs the evening that he knew he was going to become CEO.So listeners, we thought something that would be fun on this episode is to tell the whole Pixar story.We could have done it sort of in line earlier with Disney animation.But we wanted to carve it out, give it its own special section.And, you know, a really poetic thing for David and I, redo our very first episode on Acquired, which was on Pixar, here as a segment of this episode.Yep.Pixar is the spiritual successor of Walt Disney's vision for Disney animation.Yep.All right.So we're winding the clock back.Let's start with John Lasseter.Yep.So this is a guy who dreamed of becoming a Disney animator his whole life.One of his early jobs is working the Jungle Cruise at Disneyland.That's right.And David, as you mentioned, he ends up getting into CalArts.It's a complete dream come true.Classes are taught by Disney's legendary animators who worked with Walt, the Nine Old Men, as they are affectionately referred to.Now, he does get a job at Disney animation.But it's unfortunately during those dark times in the early 80s.John gets obsessed with the budding field of computer animation, even though no one else in the department is.

路径很清楚了。皮克斯必须接管迪士尼动画。这也就是为什么他在确定自己将出任 CEO 的那天晚上就给史蒂夫·乔布斯打了电话。——所以听众朋友们，我们觉得本期有件好玩的事可以做，就是把整个皮克斯的故事完整讲一遍。我们本可以在前面讲迪士尼动画时顺带讲掉，但我们想把它单独摘出来，给它一个专属的段落。而且对我和大卫来说，这件事很有诗意——我们在 Acquired 的第一期节目讲的就是皮克斯，现在等于是在本期节目里把它重做一遍。——对。皮克斯是华特·迪士尼对迪士尼动画那份愿景的精神继承者。——对。好，我们把时钟往回拨。先从约翰·拉塞特讲起。——对。这个人一辈子都梦想成为迪士尼的动画师。他早期的工作之一，是在迪士尼乐园开「丛林巡航」（Jungle Cruise）。——没错。——而大卫，就像你前面提到的，他后来考进了 CalArts，这完全是梦想成真。给他们上课的是迪士尼那些跟沃尔特共事过的传奇动画师——大家亲切地称他们为「九元老」（the Nine Old Men）。后来他确实在迪士尼动画拿到了一份工作，但很不幸，那正是 80 年代初的黑暗时期。约翰迷上了当时刚刚萌芽的计算机动画领域，尽管部门里没有别人对它感兴趣。

[1:53:31] Ben Gilbert

Although actually, Tron was happening elsewhere in Disney.So cool computer stuff was happening, just not in the culture of Disney animation.This all comes to a head when John gets the chance for his directorial debut on the movie Brave Little Toaster.And in his big pitch meeting, he comes in with the idea that he's going to use computer animation to do it.Now, remember, this is the early 80s.So computer animation was pretty primitive stuff.The time wasn't actually right yet.He gets asked if it's going to be faster and cheaper than traditional animation, because why else are they doing it?

不过其实，《电子世界争霸战》（Tron）当时正在迪士尼的另一个角落里做。所以酷炫的计算机的东西是有的，只是不在迪士尼动画的文化里。这一切在约翰获得执导处女作《勇敢的小烤面包机》（The Brave Little Toaster）的机会时爆发了。在那场重要的提案会上，他带来的想法是：他要用计算机动画来做这部片子。记住，这是 80 年代初，计算机动画还相当原始，时机其实还没到。他被问到：这会比传统动画更快、更便宜吗？不然我们为什么要这么做？

[1:54:06] Ben Gilbert

And he says neither.It's just going to push the envelope on what is possible in great storytelling.John is immediately, and I'm not kidding, same day, let go.Wow, I didn't realize it was same day.It was thank you for your meeting.We are declining to put this project into production.And since your project is over, you really have no reason to be here.Thanks for your meeting.You're fired.Yes.So we'll put a pin in John's story for now while we introduce another co-founder of Pixar.Flashback to 1963.We're at the University of Utah, where we meet Ed Catmull.Ed also wanted to do animation his whole life, but he felt that he didn't have the chops to cut it as an artist.So he got into computers instead.He finds himself in this truly magical program for computer graphics at Utah,though it was sort of just this, like, pocket of an esoteric field that most people did not really care about or appreciate at the time.Ed ends up creating one of the first films ever with computer graphics,a rotating model of his own hand, just a black and white wireframe.His classmates are famed computer scientist Alan Kay, Jim Clark of Netscape and Silicon Graphics,and John Warnock, who founded Adobe.And also, wasn't Nolan Bushnell knocking around there?

他说：两者都不是。它只是会把「什么样的伟大叙事是可能的」这条边界往前推。——约翰当场——我不是开玩笑，就是同一天——被解雇了。——哇，我都不知道是同一天。——就是「谢谢你来开这个会。我们决定不把这个项目投入制作。既然你的项目结束了，你也就没有理由留在这儿了。谢谢你的会。你被解雇了。」——是的。那我们先把约翰的故事按下不表，介绍皮克斯的另一位联合创始人。闪回到 1963 年，地点是犹他大学，我们在那里遇到艾德·卡特姆（Ed Catmull）。艾德也是一辈子都想做动画，但他觉得自己没有当艺术家的本事，于是转去搞计算机。他进了犹他大学一个真正神奇的计算机图形学项目——尽管那在当时只是一个大多数人并不真正在意或欣赏的冷门领域的小角落。艾德最后做出了史上最早的计算机图形影片之一：他自己那只手的旋转模型，只是一个黑白线框。他的同学包括著名计算机科学家艾伦·凯（Alan Kay）、网景和硅谷图形公司（Silicon Graphics）的吉姆·克拉克（Jim Clark），以及创办了 Adobe 的约翰·沃诺克（John Warnock）。——另外，诺兰·布什内尔是不是也在那儿晃悠来着？

[1:55:27]

Yep.Past acquired guest, Nolan Bushnell, the famous founder of not only Atari, but Chuck E. Cheese.That's right.That's right.So Ed ends up getting recruited to build out this pioneering computer graphics program at New York Tech on Long Island.So he's sort of in this academic sphere.Now, meanwhile, in Northern California, the year is now 1979, and there's a guy named George Lucas who is looking for someone-Heard of him.Heard of him.Yeah, heard of him.Push the field of computer graphics forward.George had just released Star Wars, and he was working on Empire Strikes Back, and he had this experience, this amazing firsthand experience of how computers could unlock brand new filmmaking methods.And not just for Star Wars, but George was looking to develop tools to make the whole industry better.This is pretty heady stuff at the time.No one in Hollywood was looking to invest in building out new computer technology just because.And the reason why George-This is actually pretty interesting from a business analysis perspective.Why did George want to make stuff to push all of filmmaking forward?

对。我们的往期嘉宾诺兰·布什内尔（Nolan Bushnell）——他不仅是雅达利（Atari）的著名创始人，还创办了 Chuck E. Cheese。——没错，没错。——所以艾德后来被招募到长岛的纽约理工学院（New York Institute of Technology），去建设那个开创性的计算机图形项目。所以他基本上处在学术圈里。而与此同时，在北加州，时间来到 1979 年，有个叫乔治·卢卡斯的人正在找一个能————听说过这人。——听说过，是啊，听说过。————能把计算机图形这个领域往前推的人。乔治刚刚推出《星球大战》，正在做《帝国反击战》，他有过一次极其震撼的亲身体验：计算机可以解锁全新的电影制作方法。而且不只是为了《星球大战》——乔治想开发的是能让整个行业变得更好的工具。这在当时是相当超前的想法。好莱坞没有人会「就为了这个」去投资建设新的计算机技术。而乔治之所以————从商业分析的角度看，这其实相当有意思。乔治为什么想做一些能推动整个电影行业前进的东西？

[1:56:32]

Well, a filmmaker can only make one film at a time, and that takes one, two, three years.But you want an audience who's used to always going to the movies every week or every month and has a great experience.So if you are a filmmaker, you're rooting for all the other filmmakers to make amazing films to sort of condition your customer set that your product is good and they should have a habit of going to the movies.So unlike other industries, being a filmmaker has this like sort of delightful cooperative.Yeah, you're sort of collaborators slash competitors.Right.So George gets put in touch with Ed.Ed accepts a job, moves across the country to join Lucasfilm.He brings Alvy Ray Smith with him from New York Tech, and they create the computer graphics group at Lucasfilm.Yep.And really the goal here is figure out how to do stuff that you couldn't do with traditional live action techniques.Pretty broad.The first big success is actually not with a Star Wars film, but a Star Trek film in The Wrath of Khan.It was a flyby of a planet as it was being terraformed and it's shot from all these crazy swooping angles.So this is now where the two paths collide.You got John Lassiner at Ed Capel and they see each other at an industry conference of all places on the Queen Mary.

因为一位电影人一次只能拍一部片子，而一部片子要花一年、两年、三年。但你希望观众养成每周或每月都去电影院、而且每次都有好体验的习惯。所以如果你是电影人，你其实是盼着所有其他电影人都拍出好片子的——这样才能把你的客群「养」成相信这个品类是好的、并且形成上电影院的习惯。所以跟别的行业不一样，做电影人有一种很美妙的协作性。——是啊，你们某种意义上既是合作者又是竞争者。——对。所以乔治被介绍给了艾德。艾德接受了这份工作，横跨全国搬过来加入卢卡斯影业。他把阿尔维·雷·史密斯（Alvy Ray Smith）从纽约理工一起带了过来，他们在卢卡斯影业组建了计算机图形小组。——对。——而这里真正的目标，就是想清楚怎么做出传统真人拍摄技法做不到的东西。相当宽泛。第一个大成功其实不是在《星球大战》系列里，而是在《星际迷航 2：可汗之怒》里——那是一颗行星被地球化改造过程的掠过镜头，用了各种疯狂的俯冲角度拍摄。所以现在两条路径撞到一起了：约翰·拉塞特和艾德·卡特姆，他们居然是在一场办在「玛丽女王号」上的行业大会上见到彼此的。

[1:57:55] Ben Gilbert

John has just been fired from Disney.Ed doesn't actually know that.Ed is hitting the limitations within his graphics group where none of them really know how to tell stories or create characters or imbue any emotion into the things that they're making.Ed begs John to see if there's any chance he could take some time and come up north to hang out at Lucasfilm graphics and improve the storytelling in the short films that they're starting to think about.John's like, oh, let me check my calendar.Yeah, I'm free.Yes.And this is really the first chance that they had to get like a real animator.So the duo is now together, but computer hardware at the time was not capable of doing what they needed.So the group needs to develop hardware.They make the Pixar image computer within Lucasfilm.This is the first time they've actually used the Pixar name for anything.So they're making these short films, which there's no it's not a real market.It's fun to make, but it's not like anyone's buying them.The Pixar image computer could do MRIs, basically anything where you needed to turn images into 3D renders.They did the first volumetric renders of an MRI.They also would analyze satellite photos for intelligence agencies and build 3D models there.

约翰刚被迪士尼开除，而艾德其实并不知道这件事。艾德在自己的图形小组里正撞上天花板：他们中没有人真懂怎么讲故事、怎么创造角色，或者怎么给做出来的东西注入任何情感。艾德恳求约翰看看有没有可能抽点时间北上，来卢卡斯影业图形组待一阵子，帮他们提升那些刚开始构思的短片的叙事水平。约翰的反应大概是：哦，让我看看我的日程表。是的，我有空。——是的。——而这真的是他们第一次有机会得到一位真正的动画师。所以两人现在会合了，但当时的计算机硬件根本做不到他们需要的事。于是这个小组必须自己开发硬件。他们在卢卡斯影业内部造出了「皮克斯图像计算机」（Pixar Image Computer）——这是「皮克斯」这个名字第一次被用在任何东西上。所以他们一边在做这些短片，可短片并不构成一个真实的市场：做起来很好玩，但没人会买。而皮克斯图像计算机能做核磁共振（MRI）成像，基本上任何需要把图像转成 3D 渲染的场景都行。他们做出了 MRI 的首批体渲染（volumetric render）。他们还会为情报机构分析卫星照片，并在其中建立 3D 模型。

[1:59:07]

So they're finding these like niche, interesting markets to try to make some money for their software and hardware.Yeah.So it's interesting.All of this is part of Lucasfilm.Is George interested in MRIs or even like making animated films?

所以他们在找这些小众而有趣的市场，试着让自己的软硬件赚点钱。——是啊。有意思的是，这一切都还属于卢卡斯影业。乔治对核磁共振感兴趣吗？他甚至对做动画长片感兴趣吗？

[1:59:27]

Not particularly.I mean, he wants them to develop capability for future films, but he doesn't want to actually staff up a big story team and have this be a filmmaking division.And no, I don't think he's particularly interested in the MRIs.He actually has a different piece of news to share with the team.He's going through a divorce.He's short on cash.He needs to free up cash for the divorce.So actually what he wants to do is sell the graphics group.Which this is fascinating, by the way.This all happened because George believes so deeply in Star Wars and the movies he was making that he didn't want to give up any equity in Lucasfilm as part of his divorce.So he needed to raise cash to pay his former wife cash instead of giving her any equity in Lucasfilm.Wild.This is like the butterfly flaps its wings that results in Pixar saving Disney.So.He finds a buyer.Yes.Enter Steve Jobs.Steve Jobs.Amazingly, they are first introduced by Alan Kay, legendary computer scientist, former classmate of Ed's and a trusted friend of Steve.Steve visits Lucasfilm to see the technology firsthand and he's impressed.But then he goes dark.Yeah.Just vanishes for a while.The Lucasfilm guys are wondering what's going on.

不怎么感兴趣。我是说，他希望他们为未来的片子开发能力，但他并不想真的养一个庞大的故事团队、把这里变成一个电影制作部门。而核磁共振嘛，不，我不认为他特别感兴趣。他其实有另一条消息要告诉团队：他正在离婚，手头现金紧张，需要为离婚腾出现金。所以他真正想做的事是把图形小组卖掉。——顺便说一句，这件事非常迷人：这一切之所以发生，是因为乔治对《星球大战》和他正在拍的电影信念太深，不愿意在离婚时让出卢卡斯影业的任何股权。所以他必须筹集现金付给前妻，而不是把卢卡斯影业的股份分给她。——太野了。这就像蝴蝶扇动翅膀，最终导致皮克斯拯救了迪士尼。——所以。他找到了一个买家。——是的。史蒂夫·乔布斯登场。——史蒂夫·乔布斯。令人惊叹的是，最早把他们牵到一起的是艾伦·凯——传奇计算机科学家、艾德的老同学，也是史蒂夫信任的朋友。史蒂夫去卢卡斯影业实地看了这项技术，印象深刻。但接着他就人间蒸发了。——是啊，消失了一阵子。卢卡斯影业那帮人不知道发生了什么。

[2:00:42]

And it turns out this is right in the middle of when Steve is getting fired from Apple and ousted from his own company.So then Steve gets back in touch after the dust settles.And at first what he actually wants is the Pixar team and technology to create a rival consumer computer company to Apple.He wants to get back at Apple using Pixar as the seeds of the company.He wants Pixar to be next.Exactly.Ed and John and Alvy and the team have no interest in doing that.Steve eventually does go and start next on his own.But he keeps in touch and he likes these guys and he kind of comes around on the vision to create films.He does agree to buy the company and kind of rescue it out of Lucasfilm.He goes into business with Ed and John and the team.He writes in 1986 a $5 million check to George Lucas to buy the company.Another $5 million check into a new entity that he just created to fund the company.It's formally named Pixar and it is owned 70% by Steve Jobs and 30% by employees.And that's Pixar.And that's Pixar.And that's Pixar.Can we just say how insane this story is?

结果原来那正好是史蒂夫被苹果扫地出门、被赶出自己公司的那段时间。所以尘埃落定之后史蒂夫又联系上了。而他最初真正想要的，其实是拿皮克斯的团队和技术去创办一家跟苹果对打的消费级电脑公司。他想用皮克斯当种子来报复苹果。——他想让皮克斯变成 NeXT。——正是。而艾德、约翰、阿尔维和团队对此毫无兴趣。史蒂夫最终自己单独去创办了 NeXT。但他一直保持联系，他喜欢这几个人，也慢慢被「做电影」这个愿景说服了。他确实同意买下这家公司，算是把它从卢卡斯影业手里救了出来。他跟艾德、约翰和团队合伙做生意。1986 年，他给乔治·卢卡斯开了一张 500 万美元的支票买下公司，又往一个他新设立的实体里注入了另一张 500 万美元的支票，为公司提供资金。这家公司正式命名为皮克斯（Pixar），史蒂夫·乔布斯持股 70%，员工持股 30%。——这就是皮克斯。——这就是皮克斯。——这就是皮克斯。我们能不能停下来说一句，这个故事有多疯狂？

[2:01:52]

There's a guy who worked at Hallowed Disney Animation.He gets his first directing gig, but he's fired for advocating to use the technology in the future.Then he finds a kindred spirit who happens to be working for George Lucas.George freaking Lucas right in between Star Wars and Empire.They're inventing all this insane stuff, but George needs to sell it off and somehow manages to find Steve goddamn Jobs.It is like the Avengers of technology, of film, of business.I mean, the only way this story could get any more awesome is if they somehow beat Disney at their own game, got bought by Disney, breathed new life into the core of the company, and Steve Jobs became the largest shareholder of Disney itself.It sounds like a Pixar movie.

有一个人在神圣的迪士尼动画工作。他拿到了人生第一个导演机会，却因为主张使用未来的技术而被开除。然后他遇到了一个志同道合的人，而那人恰好在为乔治·卢卡斯工作——乔治他妈的·卢卡斯，时间还正好卡在《星球大战》和《帝国反击战》之间。他们发明了这一堆疯狂的东西，可乔治却必须把它卖掉，而且不知怎么就找到了史蒂夫他妈的·乔布斯。这简直是技术界、电影界、商界的复仇者联盟。我是说，这个故事唯一还能更燃的可能，就是他们后来居然用迪士尼自己的看家本领打败了迪士尼、被迪士尼收购、给这家公司的核心注入了新生命，而史蒂夫·乔布斯本人还成了迪士尼最大的股东。——听起来像一部皮克斯电影。

[2:02:38]

Doesn't it?It does.This is like, this is why Acquired exists.It's so great.So they spin off the company.They don't have any customers for the product.So they go out and they recruit someone to come and buy their software as a commercial product.Yes.And that customer is Disney.Yes.The first check to Pixar Inc. is from Disney to work with them and create the CAPS system for improving their 2D animation.Yep.This is the beginning of the Disney-Pixar relationship as a vendor.As a vendor.So Pixar decides they need to show the world who they are.They make this short little film about a lamp and a baby lamp, and they're playing with a ball, and they show it to industry conferences, because that's what you did with computer graphics back then.And people go nuts.You were texting me.Your dad was at the conference where they showed Luxo Jr.?

可不是吗？——确实是。——这就是 Acquired 存在的意义啊。太棒了。——所以他们把公司分拆了出来。可他们的产品没有任何客户。于是他们跑出去招揽了一个人来把他们的软件当成商业产品买下。——是的。——而那个客户就是迪士尼。——是的。开给「皮克斯公司」的第一张支票就来自迪士尼，是请他们合作、开发 CAPS 系统来改进迪士尼的 2D 动画。——对。这就是迪士尼与皮克斯关系的起点——作为一个供应商。——作为供应商。——所以皮克斯决定，他们必须向世界展示自己是谁。他们做了一部关于一盏台灯和一盏小台灯的短片，两盏灯在玩一个球，然后拿去行业大会上放——因为在当年，你做计算机图形就是这么干的。观众疯了。——你之前给我发过短信：你爸爸就在放映《小台灯》（Luxo Jr.）的那场大会现场？

[2:03:39] Ben Gilbert

Yeah, at one of them.It wasn't the original SIGGRAPH, but it was right there in the late 80s.It was a joint robotics and computer animation conference.And I remember when I was a kid, he just told me, I think it was when we were seeing Toy Story, and it was the little short before it.I remember him telling me, yeah, I saw this at a conference, and I just, I knew this was going to change the world.Wow.Wow.I just rewatched Luxo Jr. this morning.You go on an emotional journey and develop feelings for lamps over 90 seconds.To me, this is where the storytelling aptitude and an ability to animate lifeless objects into something you really care about starts to come through.Yep.So, full steam ahead, right?

对，是其中一场。不是最早那次 SIGGRAPH，但就在 80 年代末那前后。那是一场机器人与计算机动画的联合大会。我记得我小时候他跟我讲过——我想是我们一起去看《玩具总动员》的时候，正片前面有那个小短片。我记得他跟我说：是啊，我在一次大会上看过这个，我当时就知道这东西会改变世界。——哇。——哇。——我今天早上又重看了一遍《小台灯》。你会在 90 秒里走完一段情感旅程，并且对台灯产生感情。对我来说，这正是那种叙事天赋、那种把没有生命的物体动画成让你真正在乎的东西的能力，开始显现出来的地方。——对。那就全速前进了，对吧？

[2:04:24] Ben Gilbert

Let's go make movies.Well, there's a problem.You need like $30 million to go do that.So, first they start making a bunch of commercials to try to pay the bills.They develop RenderMan as a piece of software.It's actually still an industry standard today for computer animation.They release it externally.It actually gets used on Jurassic Park, on Terminator 2, a bunch of cool films with early computer graphics.But the business is not working.These image computers are insanely expensive.They've only sold like 300 of them ever.If they're going to do their dream of an animated film, they need to go all in on it, and someone needs to fund it.So, here's what happens.John rekindles his relationship to Disney.From what I could tell, this is completely outside of the whole Caps relationship.John is being recruited to join Disney as a director.This is 1991 or so.Oh, wow.So, right as the Disney Renaissance is happening.That's right.They want him back.That's right.And instead, he says, no, I kind of threw my lot in with these guys in Northern California.We got something cool here.It's a great team.No, I'm turning down multiple offers to be a Disney animation director, his lifelong dream.And he says, but here's what I think we should do.

我们去拍电影吧。——可问题来了：你得有大约 3000 万美元才能干这事。所以他们先是接了一堆广告片来付账单。他们开发出了 RenderMan 这套软件——它至今仍是计算机动画的行业标准。他们把它对外发布，后来还被用在《侏罗纪公园》《终结者 2》以及一批早期计算机图形的酷片子上。但生意跑不通。这些图像计算机贵得离谱，他们总共才卖出去大概 300 台。如果他们要实现做一部动画长片的梦想，就必须全押上去，而且得有人来出钱。于是发生了这样一件事：约翰重新点燃了他跟迪士尼的关系。据我所知，这跟 CAPS 那条合作线完全无关。约翰当时正被迪士尼招募，要请他去当导演，大概是 1991 年前后。——哦，哇。——正好是迪士尼文艺复兴发生的时候。——没错。他们想让他回去。——没错。而他却说：不，我算是把身家押在北加州这帮人身上了。我们这儿有很酷的东西，团队很棒。他拒绝了多个成为迪士尼动画导演的邀请——那可是他一辈子的梦想。然后他说：但我觉得我们应该这么干。

[2:05:45] Ben Gilbert

Let's do a 30-minute Christmas special based on our tin toy short.And he's got a little bit of leverage to kind of ask for stuff here because they just really want him to direct something.And Disney, really it's Peter Schneider who works with Jeffrey Katzenberg, says, hey, forget the 30-minute TV special.Let's do it.A whole feature film, Toy Story.Yep.And this is how Toy Story happens.So, why is this such a crazy idea?

我们基于我们那部《锡皮小兵》（Tin Toy）短片，做一部 30 分钟的圣诞特辑吧。而他此时手里是有一点筹码可以提要求的，因为对方实在很想让他执导点什么。而迪士尼这边——其实是跟杰弗瑞·卡曾伯格共事的彼得·施耐德——说：嘿，别搞什么 30 分钟电视特辑了，我们直接来吧，做一部完整的长片：《玩具总动员》。——对。《玩具总动员》就是这么来的。——那这个想法为什么这么疯狂？

[2:06:12] David Rosenthal

I mean, why is it going to cost $30 million?Why did the folks at Disney think this is such a kind of nutty idea to make a computer animated film?Yeah.It seems on the surface like this should be easier than 2D animation, right?

我是说，为什么它会花掉 3000 万美元？为什么迪士尼那帮人觉得做一部计算机动画电影是个这么疯的主意？表面上看，这不是应该比 2D 动画更容易吗？

[2:06:27] Ben Gilbert

You're going to just get computers to do all of it.Not quite.So, we got to go spend a day at Pixar and learn from the folks there who make Pixar movies how they do it.And wow, it was so cool.Embarrassingly, I did not really understand that the way these things are made is kind of like a stage play.You actually lay out all the objects on a stage in a 3D virtual environment and you can put cameras and lights anywhere you want all in this virtual environment.It's like a video game.Yeah.They're creating the universe, basically.It's not just that you're illustrating a still frame.Yes.So, hilariously, the best explanation of this, the best sort of seven-step process, is on the inside cover of their S1 IPO prospectus.We'll put it in the email.It has this little animated guide, the Pixar animation steps.So, here they are.Step one, storyboards.Over 4,000 storyboard drawings are created as the blueprint for the action and dialogue of a feature-length Pixar film.I think the most interesting part of this is they then take the storyboards and put them together in a story reel where they're able to watch it like a movie, even though there's still frames.And they either narrate over it or they do temp dialogue on top.

你不就是让计算机把活儿全干了吗？——并不是。我们特地去皮克斯待了一天，跟那些真正在做皮克斯电影的人学他们是怎么做的。哇，那太酷了。说来惭愧，我此前并不真正明白：这些东西的做法其实很像一出舞台剧。你要在一个 3D 虚拟环境里把所有物件在「舞台」上摆好，然后在这个虚拟环境里，你想把摄影机和灯光放哪儿就放哪儿。——就像电子游戏。——是啊。他们本质上是在创造一个宇宙，而不只是在画一张静止的画面。——是的。所以好笑的是，关于这件事最好的解释、最好的那套七步流程，就印在他们 S-1 上市招股书的内封上。我们会把它放进邮件里。上面有一个小小的图解指南：皮克斯动画制作步骤。那就来吧。第一步，故事板（storyboards）。一部皮克斯长片会绘制超过 4000 张故事板，作为动作和对白的蓝图。——我觉得这里面最有意思的部分是：他们接着会把故事板拼起来做成一卷「故事样片」（story reel），这样他们就能像看电影一样看它，尽管画面还都是静止的。他们要么在上面配旁白，要么铺一层临时对白。

[2:07:49] Ben Gilbert

So, in a very inexpensive way, using 2D sort of sketching, you really can get a true sense of what's going on.This also makes it very iterable and revisable.So, we were chatting with folks at Pixar and they said, yeah, there's usually about eight different iterations where we are revising the plot, the script, the dialogue to really nail it and make sure that the story works.And I was watching old interviews with Lasseter and Jobs, and Lasseter has this quote,If it's working in our story reels, when we animate it and put color to it, it's going to work even better.If it's not working in story reels, the animation won't save it.And then Jobs says, in essence, it lets us beta test and iterate on our films before we actually make it.We believe it's one of the reasons that the hit rate can be substantially different.So, they basically make a low-res 2D movie before they make a 3D movie.Yeah.And the story and characters all have to work in 2D first.Yep.All right.So, step two, models.Pixar's proprietary animation software, Marionette, is used to create the three-dimensional computer models for characters, props, and sets.Three, layout.Each scene is begun by assembling the models for the required characters, props, and sets, and blocking out the action.

所以用一种非常便宜的方式，靠 2D 草图，你就真的能感知到整部片子的状态。这也让它极易迭代和修改。我们跟皮克斯的人聊，他们说：是啊，通常会有大约八轮不同的迭代，我们在这期间不断修改情节、剧本、对白，把它彻底打磨对，确保故事真的成立。——我看了拉塞特和乔布斯的一些老访谈，拉塞特有这样一句话：「如果在故事样片里就成立，那等我们做成动画、上了色，它只会更好；如果在故事样片里不成立，动画救不了它。」而乔布斯说：「本质上，它让我们在真正制作之前就能对电影做 beta 测试和迭代。我们认为这是我们的成功率能显著不同的原因之一。」——所以他们本质上是在做 3D 电影之前先做一部低清的 2D 电影。——是啊。而且故事和角色必须先在 2D 里成立。——对。好，第二步：模型（models）。皮克斯的自研动画软件 Marionette 被用来为角色、道具和场景创建三维计算机模型。第三步：布局（layout）。每一场戏都从把所需角色、道具和场景的模型组装到位、并把动作走位排出来开始。

[2:09:07] Ben Gilbert

This is where they really go into the computer for the first time.They take the models and they lay them out to kind of resemble the 2D paper sketches that they made for the story reels.Now, hilariously, you can watch some of these.Like, you can watch the film when it's only done in the layout stage.The characters don't have any of their limbs that move.Their mouths don't move.They're these, like, lifeless puppets being dragged around.You kind of get the plot, but you get no personality or emotion.Yeah, they're like the 3D equivalent of stick figures.Yeah, the animators haven't really performed the characters yet.Yep.So, then, step four, animation.Pixar's proprietary animation software allows Pixar's animators to choreograph the motion in each scene by defining key frames or poses.So, this is the exciting step.Each character goes through something called rigging.Yeah.By this point, where they provide the animators with a buffet of options for each character.Like, moving the hand at the wrist or the arm or the elbow or the shoulder.And the animator then very carefully, frame by frame, first animates the bodies and then later the faces.Because if the body motions are working for the story with no facial expressions, then all of the facial expression and mouth moving is just icing on the cake.

这是他们第一次真正进入计算机里。他们把模型拿过来，按照之前为故事样片画的 2D 纸上草图那样摆布出来。好笑的是，其中有些你是能看到的——你可以看只做到布局阶段的片子：角色的四肢都不会动，嘴也不动，就是一群被拖来拖去的没有生命的木偶。你能大致看懂情节，但完全感受不到个性和情感。——是啊，它们就相当于 3D 版的火柴人。——是啊，动画师还没有真正「表演」这些角色。——对。所以接下来是第四步：动画（animation）。皮克斯的自研动画软件让动画师能通过定义关键帧或姿势，来编排每一场戏里的动作。这是激动人心的一步。到这个阶段，每个角色都要经过一道叫「绑定」（rigging）的工序，为动画师提供一整桌可选的控制项：比如从手腕、手臂、手肘或肩膀去移动这只手。然后动画师非常仔细地一帧一帧来，先做身体的动画，之后再做脸部。因为如果在完全没有表情的情况下，身体动作已经能把故事撑住，那所有的面部表情和口型就都只是锦上添花。

[2:10:22] Ben Gilbert

But you never want to rely on the facial expressions to do the heavy lifting for you.This is such a cool part of the process.You're turning them from stick figures into something that's alive is really the best way to frame it.Yeah.And to your point, they use the same thing here that the animators used in 1938 with Snow White.Where they film themselves acting it out first.And then they use that video as sort of reference for how would this character act.And there's all this great footage on YouTube of, in 1992, the guy who was animating Woody sort of going through motions.Or for the army men to figure out how the army men were going to move in Toy Story.They duct taped ski boots to a giant plank of wood.And they sort of jumped around the room in it to really understand how would a person move if their feet were locked together.So it's this really amazing, like, performance.And then you're teaching the computer through the rigging and through effectively, like, pulling the strings how to make the character move the way that you want it to.Then there's shading, computer programs that describe the surface characteristics, like textures, finishes, colors that are added to every object in the scene.

但你永远不该指望面部表情来替你扛重活。——这是整个流程里特别酷的一部分。你是在把它们从火柴人变成有生命的东西，这大概是最好的说法。——是啊。而且照你的说法，他们在这里用的方法，和 1938 年做《白雪公主》时动画师用的是同一套：先把自己表演的过程拍下来，然后拿那段视频当参考，看这个角色会怎么演。YouTube 上有很多很棒的资料片段，比如 1992 年给胡迪做动画的那个人在做各种动作示范。或者为了搞清楚《玩具总动员》里那些绿色士兵该怎么移动，他们用胶带把滑雪靴绑在一整块大木板上，然后穿着它在屋子里跳来跳去，好真正理解一个人在两脚被锁在一起时会怎么移动。所以这是一场非常了不起的「表演」。然后你再通过绑定、通过实际上「拉线操纵」，把角色该怎么动教给计算机。——接下来是着色（shading）：用计算机程序描述表面特性，比如给场景里每一个物体加上的纹理、质感和颜色。

[2:11:41] Ben Gilbert

This is where you can get things like wood and metal and fabric and glass and hair and skin.Then step six is lighting, using digital lights.Each scene is lit, much in the same manner as stage lighting.David, you and I saw some really cool examples of scenes that look boring and lifeless.And then they go through lighting and, oh, my God, suddenly they're gorgeous and emotional.And then lastly, step seven, rendering.Pixar's RenderMan software draws the finished image by computing every pixel of the image from the model, animation, shading, and lighting information.This is insane.This is the part that, if you think about all the computing involved, for every single frame,it needs to compute and recompute every pixel based on what object something is, where all the light sources are, each one for each pixel.If they're in motion, and if so, how to apply motion blur.Rendering is so computationally expensive here.In those days, each frame would take an hour or two to render, and they could only render like three and a half minutes of footage per week.They were on this Sun Microsystems hardware that was state-of-the-art at the time, and they had 117 of them clustered together to create a render farm for the film.

这一步能做出木头、金属、织物、玻璃、毛发和皮肤这些东西。第六步是灯光（lighting）：用数字灯具给每一场戏打光，方式跟舞台灯光非常相似。大卫，你和我都看到了一些特别酷的例子——有些镜头本来看着无聊、毫无生气，然后一过灯光，天哪，突然就变得美不胜收、充满情绪。最后是第七步：渲染（rendering）。皮克斯的 RenderMan 软件根据模型、动画、着色和灯光信息，逐个像素地计算出成品画面。——这太疯狂了。想想这里面涉及的计算量：对每一帧，它都要基于「这是什么物体」「所有光源在哪儿」，把每一个像素算一遍再算一遍；还要判断它是否在运动，如果在，要怎么施加运动模糊。渲染在这里的算力开销极大。在那个年代，每一帧要花一两个小时来渲染，他们一周只能渲出大约三分半钟的成片。他们用的是当时最先进的 Sun Microsystems 硬件，把 117 台机器集群起来，为这部电影搭了一个渲染农场。

[2:12:57]

Yeah, this last step just highlights what a fundamentally different thing this is from 2D animation.2D animation is art.It's like you're painting a picture.What Pixar does is they are creating a universe, and then they are calculating every atom of that universe.That's exactly right.And where it really, really does have the same spirit as Walt and Disney is that every single one of those steps is also a story step.It's not just like, oh, great, we wrote the story.Let's throw it over to the tech guys and, like, turn it into the renders.It is all a collaboration, creating a universe and constantly refining the story and making it better and better and better over years.All right.So back to Toy Story.January 19th, 1993, they get the green light from Disney.And specifically what they have is a deal to make up to three pictures, just one for now, and Disney has the exclusive option to extend for two more, where Disney's basically hiring Pixar to make a movie for them.And here are the terms.Disney puts up all the capital for production.It ends up being about $30 million.Initially, it was budgeted to be about $17 million.Disney is also responsible for the marketing costs.Pixar exclusively can make films with Disney.

是啊，最后这一步恰恰凸显出：这跟 2D 动画在根本上是完全不同的东西。2D 动画是艺术，就像你在画一幅画。而皮克斯做的事，是创造一个宇宙，然后计算这个宇宙里的每一个原子。——完全正确。而它真正跟沃尔特和迪士尼精神相通的地方在于：上面每一个步骤同时也都是「故事步骤」。不是说「太好了，故事写完了，扔给技术那帮人去出渲染图吧」。整件事都是协作，是创造一个宇宙，并在数年时间里不断打磨故事、让它一遍比一遍更好。——好。那我们说回《玩具总动员》。1993 年 1 月 19 日，他们拿到了迪士尼的绿灯。具体来说，他们签的是一份最多三部片的协议：眼下先做一部，迪士尼拥有独家选择权可以再延两部，本质上是迪士尼雇皮克斯替自己拍一部电影。条款是这样的：迪士尼出全部制作资金，最后大约是 3000 万美元——最初的预算大概是 1700 万美元。营销费用也由迪士尼承担。皮克斯只能与迪士尼合作拍片。

[2:14:21]

Pixar is entitled to a small amount of the profits, and that is profit after paying back some of the marketing costs.Yep.So that ends up being less than 10% of the profits, which is not exactly an engine that they can use to build a business.Yeah.Oh, by the way, Disney keeps all of the intellectual property rights to Toy Story.Yes.All the characters, all the merch, etc., etc.Disney also will have the right to make sequels if they choose.They will offer Pixar to make the sequels with them, but if Pixar declines, they're still Disney's to make.And lastly, the three-picture deal does not actually include those sequels, even if Disney elects to make them.So if Disney wants a sequel, Pixar makes a sequel, but it does not count against the total of three.So it's kind of a crappy deal, but it is all of their dream, and it is basically the only option.And it's Disney, right?

皮克斯有权分得一小部分利润，而且是在偿还部分营销成本之后的利润。——对。——最后算下来不到利润的 10%，这实在算不上一台能用来做大生意的引擎。——是啊。——哦，顺便说一句，《玩具总动员》的全部知识产权归迪士尼所有。——是的。所有角色、所有周边等等。而且迪士尼还拥有自行决定是否拍续集的权利。他们会先邀请皮克斯一起拍续集，但如果皮克斯拒绝，迪士尼仍然可以自己拍。最后，即便迪士尼选择拍续集，这些续集也不计入那份三部片协议之内。所以如果迪士尼想要一部续集，皮克斯去拍了，它也不算在三部的额度里。——所以这是一份挺糟的合同，但它承载着他们全部的梦想，而且基本上是唯一的选择。而且这可是迪士尼，对吧？

[2:15:18]

I mean, it's Disney.You do it.Right.Well, there's no other studio that would make this with them.And Disney did stuff like this.So they made The Nightmare Before Christmas with Tim Burton.It's like, hey, this is stop-motion animation.It's something different than what we do here at Disney Animation.Let's get this out there.It's a boutique thing.We'll publish it.We're the best in the world at publishing animated family pictures and distributing them to theaters, marketing them.Great.Yep.So what are they actually making here?

我是说，那是迪士尼啊。你当然会答应。——对。而且也没有别的制片厂会跟他们做这件事。何况迪士尼确实干过类似的事：他们跟蒂姆·伯顿做了《圣诞夜惊魂》。心态大概是：嘿，这是定格动画，跟我们迪士尼动画自己做的东西不一样，那就把它推出去吧。这是个精品小众项目，我们来「出版」它。我们在把动画家庭片推向市场、发行到影院、做营销这件事上是世界第一。很好。——对。那他们究竟要做的是什么？

[2:15:48] Ben Gilbert

Pixar knows they want to make a film that is different than your typical Disney animation.They don't want to make it a musical because at this point in 1993, the last four were all musicals, and they don't want it to be a fairy tale.They don't want it to harken back to sort of the classic Walt's tales either.But that does sort of mean that they're in uncharted waters.They have to develop their own tone and style and process.So they start translating John Lasseter's vision into the storyboards, and they keep going to Disney for notes, which is both useful because Pixar doesn't really know what they're doing yet, and contractually required.So Katzenberg is at the helm at this point.He keeps pushing to make the film edgier.And through a combination of Pixar not really feeling their confidence in storytelling and the notes pushing them this way, Woody ends up very mean.He's got this brand of insult humor.He's so threatened by Buzz that that emotion overshadows every other action he could possibly take in any scene.He's actively and intentionally pushing Buzz out windows and behind dressers and stuff like that.So December of 93, the story reel screening happens down in Burbank.They're like, all right, here's all the notes that we've taken.

皮克斯知道他们想做一部跟典型迪士尼动画不一样的片子。他们不想做成音乐剧，因为到 1993 年这个时点，前面四部全是音乐剧；他们也不想做成童话，不想去追溯沃尔特那种经典故事的路子。但这也就意味着他们进入了没有海图的水域：他们必须发展出自己的调性、风格和流程。于是他们开始把约翰·拉塞特的构想翻译成故事板，并不断拿去迪士尼要意见——这既有用，因为皮克斯自己其实还不太懂怎么做，也是合同规定必须做的。此时掌舵的是卡曾伯格，他不断施压要把片子做得更「带刺」一点。结果在皮克斯对自己叙事能力还没什么底气、加上外部意见一路把他们往这个方向推的双重作用下，胡迪被写得非常刻薄。他满嘴那种损人式的笑话。他被巴斯威胁到，以至于这种情绪盖过了他在任何一场戏里可能采取的其他任何行动。他是主动而且刻意地把巴斯推出窗外、推到柜子后面这类事。所以 1993 年 12 月，故事样片放映会在伯班克举行。他们的心态是：好，这是我们记下的所有意见，

[2:17:02] Ben Gilbert

Here's the story we've got.It goes over like a lead balloon.Katzenberg hates it.Roy E. Disney hates it.None of the characters were working.So Disney cuts it off.Disney says, I know we've got a deal, but we are stopping production.No more money.The Pixar team's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, crap.Like, that's our whole company.Can we have two to three weeks?

这是我们做出来的故事。结果全场像铅球落地一样冷场。卡曾伯格讨厌它。罗伊·E·迪士尼讨厌它。没有一个角色是立得住的。于是迪士尼直接叫停：我知道我们有合同，但我们要停止制作。不再给钱了。皮克斯团队的反应是：哇哇哇，糟了，那可是我们整家公司。能不能给我们两到三周？

[2:17:28] Ben Gilbert

We just want to do a total rewrite.We'll work day and night.And so they go back up to Northern California and they make the version of the film that they want to make.And it's not perfect, but suddenly these characters get multidimensional.They come back and it's good enough.There's real tension in the story.Disney, to their credit, looks at it again and says, OK, you're back on.Continue the process.Over the course of 1994, they're looking at their story reels.They're kind of iterating through.They're adding more depth.And the early tests of the scenes that have gone through most of the render pipeline, they're really good.The Pixar team knows it.Steve Jobs has become a believer.And he's starting to believe, hey, we've got a hit on our hands.And David, I know you've got this part.Yeah.So Steve being Steve starts thinking through this and realizes if Toy Story is a hit, what's going to happen?

我们想彻底重写一遍。我们会日夜连轴转。于是他们回到北加州，做出了他们真正想做的那个版本。它不完美，但这些角色突然变得立体多面了。他们带着新版回来，而这一版足够好了：故事里有了真正的张力。迪士尼也算有担当，重新看了一遍，说：好，你们恢复了，继续做。整个 1994 年，他们一直在看自己的故事样片，一轮轮迭代，不断加厚层次。而那些已经跑完大部分渲染流程的镜头的早期测试效果非常好。皮克斯团队心里有数。史蒂夫·乔布斯也成了信徒，他开始相信：嘿，我们手里有一部爆款。——大卫，我知道这一段归你讲。——好。所以史蒂夫还是那个史蒂夫，他开始把这件事往下推演，意识到：如果《玩具总动员》爆了，接下来会发生什么？

[2:18:25] David Rosenthal

Disney and Michael Eisner, who's still CEO at this point in time, are going to realize that they actually just created their worst nightmare.A true animation competitor to Disney.They can do something that they can't.So let's play this out.That happens.He's probably going to come back to us and want to renegotiate the deal to lock us up for longer.We want to have as much leverage as possible.In order to do that, we need to have our own capital to actually go in 50-50 on the production budget of the movies that we're making together.If we don't bring any capital, Disney will be able to walk all over us and keep the majority of the profits, plus take their distribution fee, etc., etc.Okay.How are we going to get the capital?

迪士尼和此时仍是 CEO 的迈克尔·艾斯纳会意识到：他们刚刚亲手造出了自己最可怕的噩梦——一个真正的迪士尼动画竞争对手，能做迪士尼做不到的事。那我们把这条线推下去：这件事发生之后，他多半会回过头来找我们重谈合同，把我们更长时间地锁住。我们要尽可能多地掌握筹码。要做到这一点，我们必须有自己的资本，才能在我们合作的电影制作预算里真正出到五五开。如果我们一分钱资本都不出，迪士尼就能对我们予取予求，拿走大部分利润，还要再收他们的发行费等等。——好。那我们怎么拿到这笔资本？

[2:19:21] David Rosenthal

We need to go public.And we can't go public now because the last four years have been losses and we have not yet released a movie.We don't want to wait too long after the movie comes out.So I think we should go public the week after Toy Story comes out.And this is where Steve was just brilliant because he was like, if it's a success, we'll make a big splash.We'll be the darlings of the media.We'll have a big hit movie.That is the time to go public.If you're anyone else at Pixar, you have to be thinking, no, no, no, no.Can't we just do this one and see how it works out?

我们得上市。而我们现在不能上市，因为过去四年都在亏损，而且我们还没有发行过一部电影。我们也不想在电影上映之后拖太久。所以我认为我们应该在《玩具总动员》上映后的那一周上市。——史蒂夫在这一点上真是天才，因为他的逻辑是：如果它成功了，我们就能制造巨大的声浪，我们会成为媒体宠儿，我们手里有一部大爆的电影——那正是上市的时机。如果换成皮克斯的任何其他人，一定会想：不不不不，我们就不能先把这一部做完、看看结果如何吗？

[2:19:52]

But this is Steve Jobs.Yeah.So Toy Story comes out on November 22, 1995.Grosses nearly $400 million worldwide.It is the Thanksgiving movie for families to see.It made $29 million in its opening weekend, went on to become the number one film in the U.S.And it was the first ever animated film that was a blockbuster that was not created by Disney.And it was the highest grossing film of the whole year.Not children's movie, like highest grossing period.Period.So one week later, after Toy Story premieres, on November 29, 1995, Pixar goes public.Right.Which means Steve had been like flying around doing a roadshow, meeting with all these investment bankers.As Toy Story is finishing production and getting ready to go out, it's unbelievable.Well, this is actually a theme that we're going to come back to in a minute.There's no other business guys at Pixar.It's just Steve.Steve does everything that's not creative in making the movies.So Pixar closes its first day of trading at a $1.5 billion market cap.This is how big a hit Toy Story was and how much it was in the public consciousness.This is how Steve Jobs becomes a billionaire.Yes.The Toy Story IPO.He didn't make anywhere near that kind of money from Apple.

但这可是史蒂夫·乔布斯。——是啊。——所以《玩具总动员》在 1995 年 11 月 22 日上映，全球票房接近 4 亿美元。它成了感恩节全家必看的那部电影。首周末拿下 2900 万美元，之后成为全美票房冠军。它是史上第一部不是由迪士尼创造的、称得上超级大片的动画电影。而且它是全年票房最高的电影——不是「儿童片里最高」，是所有影片里最高。——句号。——所以在《玩具总动员》首映一周之后，1995 年 11 月 29 日，皮克斯上市了。——对。这意味着史蒂夫当时一直在满天飞地做路演、见各路投资银行家，而《玩具总动员》正在收尾、准备上映。不可思议。——嗯，这其实是我们等一下还会回来讲的一个主题：皮克斯没有别的做生意的人，只有史蒂夫。拍电影里所有非创意的事都是史蒂夫在做。——所以皮克斯上市首日收盘时市值是 15 亿美元。这说明《玩具总动员》有多爆，说明它在公众意识里占了多大分量。——史蒂夫·乔布斯就是这样成为亿万富翁的。——是的。靠《玩具总动员》的 IPO。他从苹果那里赚到的钱远远不及这个量级。

[2:21:19]

Toy Story and Pixar is how Steve Jobs makes his fortune.So that $140 million they raised makes it the largest IPO of the year.Larger than Netscape.Netscape.Yes.The numbers on Steve, he bought the company for $5 million.He actually did dump $54 million into it over nine years.Yeah.He was like wiring money for payroll and stuff like that.And on IPO day, he owned 78% of the company.So what's that?

《玩具总动员》和皮克斯，才是史蒂夫·乔布斯赚到财富的方式。——他们募到的那 1.4 亿美元使它成为当年最大的 IPO，比网景（Netscape）还大。——比网景还大。——是的。——史蒂夫这边的数字：他当初用 500 万美元买下公司，实际上在九年里又往里砸了 5400 万美元。——是啊。他是那种为了发工资之类的事直接电汇打钱的人。——而在 IPO 当天，他持有公司 78% 的股份。那这是多少？

[2:21:46]

Like $1.2 billion?Yes.Pixar alone made Steve Jobs a billionaire on IPO day.Yep.Incredible.Also, this was just a bet the company move.I mean, if Toy Story didn't work, then the IPO wasn't going to work and then the wholething would go bust.And if the IPO didn't work...Then Pixar would have gotten crushed by Disney in the next negotiations.This was a series of successive bet the company moves that all needed to work in order for itto work at all.So what happens next?

差不多 12 亿美元？——是的。光皮克斯一家，就在 IPO 当天让史蒂夫·乔布斯成了亿万富翁。——对。不可思议。——而且这完全是一次「押上整家公司」的操作。我是说，如果《玩具总动员》不成，IPO 就不成，然后整件事就崩了。——而如果 IPO 不成……——那皮克斯就会在下一轮谈判中被迪士尼碾碎。——这是一连串接连不断的「押上公司」的动作，全部都必须成功，整件事才能成立。——那接下来发生了什么？

[2:22:21] David Rosenthal

Steve was exactly right.Michael Eisner wants to renegotiate after realizing, oh my God, we only have two morefilms left with these guys and they're the only credible competitor.Jobs throws out, hey, let's do it 50-50 with joint participation 50-50 in the upside.Now that Pixar has the cash to do it, Michael Eisner agrees as long as they can expand intoa brand new five picture deal, rolling the remaining two from the old contract into thenew deal.So after Toy Story, Disney would have the right then to make five more movies with PixarPixar in addition to sequels.Now, Disney also would be doing the distribution of the film.So they'd actually end up with more like 65%, not 50%.But that's some Hollywood accounting that I don't actually think Steve realized that atthe time.Well, the story I heard was that he did.And like it makes sense like distribution has real costs and marketing and like, of course,Disney should get paid for that.Story I heard is that Steve found out later from George Lucas that the terms of Lucas'sdistribution deal with Fox were better than the distribution terms that Pixar got withDisney.And that's what he was pissed about.So the second film they make is A Bug's Life.

史蒂夫完全料对了。迈克尔·艾斯纳意识到「我的天，我们跟这帮人只剩两部片子了，而他们是唯一有实力的竞争对手」之后，想要重谈合同。乔布斯抛出方案：嘿，我们五五开，上行收益也五五开。既然皮克斯现在有现金能这么做，迈克尔·艾斯纳就同意了——条件是要把它扩展成一份全新的五部片协议，把旧合同里剩下的两部滚进新协议里。所以在《玩具总动员》之后，迪士尼将有权跟皮克斯再拍五部电影，续集另算。——不过迪士尼同时还负责影片发行，所以他们最后拿到的其实更接近 65%，而不是 50%。但那是好莱坞式的会计手法，我其实不认为史蒂夫当时看穿了这一点。——我听到的版本是他看穿了。而且这也说得通：发行是有真实成本的，还有营销，迪士尼当然应该为此拿钱。我听到的故事是，史蒂夫后来从乔治·卢卡斯那里得知，卢卡斯跟福克斯签的发行条款比皮克斯跟迪士尼拿到的发行条款要好——他气的是这个。——所以他们做的第二部片子是《虫虫危机》（A Bug's Life）。

[2:23:34]

This was also a big success.360 million at the box office.Pixar is sort of viewed as this hit factory.You know, it's only been two so far, but they're developing Toy Story 2 as the next filmafter that.Meanwhile, the relationship with Michael Eisner is kind of deteriorating.Yeah, that's with Steve Jobs.Disney wants to go direct to video with Toy Story 2.This is actually interesting to flash back and think about this.Disney had never done anything except for direct to video for sequels.The thinking was that you make something great once, you put it in theaters, and then-You don't over-exploit the IP.That's exactly right.But also the belief was that sequels can't possibly be as good.You're always making this like lesser second tier thing.And they actually hadn't done a ton of sequels, which is quite funny that it's completelyflipped now.Now the goal of creating the first film is to be able to create a franchise so they canexploit the IP more and more after that.Toy Story 2 is where they learn the lesson that, oh, actually, that is a valuable businessmodel.It's actually the Pixar team that goes to Disney and says, hey, this sucks.We don't want to create an A team and a B team at Pixar because like the A teams on

这部也是大成功，票房 3.6 亿美元。皮克斯开始被视为一家「爆款工厂」。当然到此为止也才两部，但他们已经在把《玩具总动员 2》作为下一部片子来开发了。——与此同时，跟迈克尔·艾斯纳的关系在恶化。——是啊，是跟史蒂夫·乔布斯之间。——迪士尼想让《玩具总动员 2》直接发录像带（direct to video）。——把镜头闪回去想想这件事其实挺有意思的：迪士尼此前的续集从来都只走录像带发行。当时的想法是：你把一样东西做到极好，一次，放进影院，然后————不要过度榨取 IP。——完全正确。而且当时还有一种信念：续集不可能一样好，你做的永远是一个次一等的东西。而且他们其实并没有拍很多续集，这一点跟今天完全反过来了，挺好笑的。今天做第一部片子的目标，就是为了能做出一个系列（franchise），好在此后不断地、越来越多地榨取这个 IP。——《玩具总动员 2》正是他们学到「哦，原来那其实是一个有价值的商业模式」这一课的地方。——而且是皮克斯团队主动去找迪士尼说：嘿，这样不行。我们不想在皮克斯内部分出一个 A 队和一个 B 队，因为 A 队在做

[2:24:49]

Bugs Life, the B team is clearly working on the thing that's going to be lower budget,lower distribution, direct to video.We don't know how to do it.Disney says, okay.So in February of 98, Disney says, Toy Story 2, you are greenlit for theatrical release.But the question is, does it count towards the deal or not?

《虫虫危机》，那 B 队明摆着就是在做那个预算更低、发行更差、直接出录像带的东西。我们不知道该怎么这么干。——迪士尼说：好吧。所以 1998 年 2 月，迪士尼说：《玩具总动员 2》，批准你们做院线版。——但问题是：它到底算不算进那份协议里？

[2:25:08] David Rosenthal

So Steve realizes Toy Story 2 is going to be good.And again, he wants to renegotiate.He goes to Eisner and says, hey, can the five picture deal include sequels?Meanwhile, Michael Eisner is like, why would I do that?

于是史蒂夫意识到《玩具总动员 2》会是一部好片。他又一次想重新谈判。他去找艾斯纳说：嘿，那个五部片约能不能把续集也算进去？而迈克尔·艾斯纳的反应是：我凭什么答应？

[2:25:22] David Rosenthal

The paper says what it says.We negotiated this for a reason.You want to change the terms of the deal.I don't want to change the terms of the deal.So we'll just stick with the deal we have.Yep.You can see why the relationship starts to deteriorate.Yes.Yes.They make Toy Story 2.Doesn't count.They release it in theaters.It grosses almost $500 million.Pixar's highest grossing film yet.And Disney learns all the way to the bank that sequels can be real profitable.Yes, they do.So meanwhile, the backdrop to all of this is Steve Jobs had come back to Apple.By this point in time, Apple had bought Next.Steve is now CEO of Apple, leading the turnaround in the renaissance at Apple.The iPod comes out.iTunes comes out.And one of the big marketing campaigns for the iPod and iTunes is Rip Mix Burn.But you know who doesn't like the word rip?

白纸黑字写的是什么就是什么。我们当初这么谈是有原因的。你想改条款，我不想改条款。那就照原合同执行。没错。你能看出两家关系为什么开始恶化。是的。是的。他们做了《玩具总动员 2》，不计入片约。在影院上映，全球票房接近 5 亿美元，是皮克斯当时票房最高的一部。而迪士尼数着钱明白了一个道理：续集可以非常赚钱。可不是嘛。与此同时，这一切的背景是史蒂夫·乔布斯已经回到苹果。到这个时间点，苹果收购了 NeXT，史蒂夫成了苹果 CEO，正带领苹果的转身与复兴。iPod 上市了，iTunes 上市了。而 iPod 和 iTunes 的大型营销战役之一叫「Rip Mix Burn（翻录·混编·刻录）」。但你知道谁不喜欢「rip（翻录，也有「盗走」之意）」这个词吗？

[2:26:21] David Rosenthal

It's Michael Eisner.So Eisner goes and testifies in front of Congress in 2002 against the technology industry and specifically calls out Apple's Rip Mix Burn marketing campaign, saying it encourages theft of intellectual property via digital piracy.And Bob Iger has a quote about this in Right of a lifetime.It was clear that Pixar was gaining swagger as Disney was losing it.And these two strong willed personalities were destined to battle each other for supremacy.Man.And if you really want to poke Steve Jobs, it's one thing to go after him in the Pixar negotiations.It's another thing to come after him at Apple.Now, to be totally fair to Eisner here, Disney had a big music business and a big album business.I mean, album soundtracks for...And regardless, at this point, everyone's sort of banding together and realizing, like, what's going to happen to music doesn't happen to movies next.Yep.Yep.So he had good reason to be worried here.But yeah, you probably don't want to come after Steve Jobs in Apple, one of your most important partners at Pixar.So then it gets even worse.Finding Nemo is the next movie in the deal.And as Nemo is coming together, Eisner sees an early screening of one of the reels of Nemo, decides he doesn't like it.

就是迈克尔·艾斯纳。于是艾斯纳在 2002 年跑去国会作证，炮轰科技行业，还专门点名苹果的 Rip Mix Burn 营销战役，说它在鼓励用数字盗版偷窃知识产权。鲍勃·艾格在《一生的旅程》里有一句相关的话：很明显，皮克斯在赢得气场，而迪士尼在失去气场；这两个意志强悍的人注定要为主导权彼此开战。天哪。而且，如果你真想戳史蒂夫·乔布斯的痛处——在皮克斯谈判桌上跟他较劲是一回事，跑到苹果那边去动他，就是另一回事了。不过要为艾斯纳说句公道话，迪士尼有很大的音乐业务和唱片业务，我是说电影原声专辑那一块……而且不管怎样，当时所有人都在抱团，意识到音乐行业的遭遇接下来就会轮到电影。是的。是的。所以他有充分理由担心。但话说回来，你大概不该去招惹苹果的史蒂夫·乔布斯，他可是你在皮克斯最重要的合作伙伴之一。接着事情变得更糟。《海底总动员》是片约里的下一部电影。片子成型过程中，艾斯纳看了《海底总动员》其中一卷早期故事样片的试映，觉得自己不喜欢。

[2:27:54] David Rosenthal

Which is how story reels work.They're crap at first.This is Pixar's process to iterate and make them better.Early ones are always bad.Yep.So Pixar has become a board-level topic at this point for Disney.After seeing the Nemo reel, Eisner writes a memo to the Disney board where he says that he's seen the Nemo reel, it's a bad movie, it's going to flop, and it'll be a, quote, reality check for those guys.And it'll be great for Disney's negotiating leverage for Pixar to fail.Never mind that Disney is getting over 50% of the economics in Nemo.So you should be incentivized to want it to succeed.The memo leaks, right?

而故事样片（story reel）本来就是这么回事——一开始就是垃圾。这正是皮克斯用来反复迭代、把片子打磨得更好的流程。早期版本永远都很糟。没错。所以此时皮克斯已经成了迪士尼董事会级别的议题。看完《海底总动员》的样片后，艾斯纳给迪士尼董事会写了一份备忘录，说他看了《海底总动员》的样片，这是部烂片，会扑街，而且这会给那帮人一次「现实的当头一棒」。还说皮克斯失败对迪士尼的谈判筹码是好事。全然不顾迪士尼在《海底总动员》里拿走了超过 50% 的经济利益——按理你应该有动力希望它成功才对。这份备忘录泄露了，对吧？

[2:28:37] David Rosenthal

The memo gets leaked from the board to the press.And Jobs can see that Michael thinks Nemo's bad.He's actively rooting against it, even though he's the creative partner producing it with Pixar, and that it'll give leverage over Pixar in a negotiation.You can almost interpret it as I'm going to actively work to make it fail so we can increase our leverage.Yeah.So Nemo comes out in 2003.And Michael could not have been more wrong.It grosses $871 million in theaters, making it the second highest grossing movie of 2003, behind only Lord of the Rings Return of the King.And then they put it out on home video, on DVD.And so even before this, let's say the theaters get, I don't know, $400 million of that.So that's $470 million to Disney Pixar.Yeah.From this film, even before DVD.These were the days, Ben.These were the days.The Finding Nemo DVD was, just like the Lion King VHS was the high watermark for VHS, the Finding Nemo DVD was the peak, the absolute pinnacle.Of home video?

备忘录从董事会那里泄露给了媒体。乔布斯看得清清楚楚：迈克尔认为《海底总动员》不行，他在主动盼着它失败——尽管他自己就是和皮克斯一起制作这部片的创意伙伴——而且失败能让他在谈判中拿到对皮克斯的筹码。你几乎可以把它理解成：我要主动使劲让它砸锅，好抬高我们的筹码。是啊。于是《海底总动员》在 2003 年上映。而迈克尔错得不能再离谱了。它拿下 8.71 亿美元票房，成为 2003 年全球票房第二高的电影，仅次于《指环王：王者归来》。然后他们又发行了家庭录像带和 DVD。所以哪怕在此之前——就算影院拿走其中，我不知道，4 亿美元吧——那也还有 4.7 亿美元归迪士尼和皮克斯。是的。仅这一部片子，还没算 DVD。那真是好时代啊，本。那真是好时代。《海底总动员》的 DVD，就像《狮子王》录像带是 VHS 时代的最高水位线一样，《海底总动员》DVD 是巅峰，是绝对的顶点。家庭录像的顶点？

[2:29:55] David Rosenthal

Of home video in the DVD era.Because even Netflix isn't streaming yet at this point.This is 2004.There's no streaming.This is the peak.So we heard in the research that Disney and Pixar would sell 65 million copies of the Finding Nemo DVD.All told, you know, across all time frame.At $30 a pop.$30 a pop.That is $2 billion in home video gross.So $3 billion, give or take, total gross revenue for Finding Nemo just between theatrical and DVD alone.That's not including merch.That's not including parks.That's not including TV rights.Steve and Pixar did get a reality check.And the reality check is that they don't need Disney at all.The LA Times had an article right around this time after Nemo.Pixar films have accounted for as much as half of the studio, Walt Disney's, operating income in recent years.And much of that is driven by Nemo.Remember, this is the same time that Disney Animation is releasing Treasure Planet and Atlantis The Lost Empire.So Jobs is pissed.He comes back with an even stronger counterproposal.He thinks, at this point, Pixar is an established studio that knows how to make hits.And he just looks at Disney as a financing and distribution partner.Yep.Which is true, but they did have a contract that still had two more movies in it.

是 DVD 时代家庭录像的顶点。因为那会儿连 Netflix 都还没开始做流媒体。这是 2004 年，没有流媒体。这就是巅峰。我们在做资料时听说，迪士尼和皮克斯累计卖出了 6500 万张《海底总动员》DVD——就是说全时间段加起来。每张 30 美元。每张 30 美元。那就是 20 亿美元的家庭录像总收入。所以光是院线加 DVD，《海底总动员》的总收入大概就有 30 亿美元上下。这还不算周边商品，不算主题公园，不算电视版权。史蒂夫和皮克斯确实挨了「现实的当头一棒」——而这一棒的现实是：他们根本不需要迪士尼。《洛杉矶时报》在《海底总动员》之后不久有一篇文章写道：近几年，皮克斯的电影贡献了这家制片厂（华特迪士尼）多达一半的营业利润。其中很大一部分来自《海底总动员》。别忘了，同一时期迪士尼动画正在推出《星银岛》和《亚特兰蒂斯：失落的帝国》。所以乔布斯火了。他带着一份更强硬的反提案回来。在他看来，此时的皮克斯已经是一家懂得怎么造爆款的成熟制片厂，他把迪士尼仅仅看作一个融资和发行的伙伴。是的。这话没错，但他们手上确实还有一份合同，里面还剩两部片子。

[2:31:34] David Rosenthal

He proposes a deal to Eisner, and this is where the relationship becomes irreparable.Pixar should actually be getting 100% of the profits, not 50%.And they're now prepared to fund the budget themselves, too.Disney would just get a 10% distribution fee, much like Lucasfilm's deal with Fox.And to top it all off, Jobs asks Disney to relinquish its co-ownership of the past movies.Jobs knows that at this point, Disney needs Pixar real bad.Eisner stands his ground and declines.And in reality, I mean, Steve was asking for too much here.It actually wouldn't make economic sense for Disney to do it because they had such little upside in the straw man that Steve was putting together.But man, would it hurt to lose Pixar when it is really the only thing working right now.Yep.Except for ESPN.Yep.So, all this comes to January 2004, where Pixar pulls the plug on the negotiations.And they issue a press release.And listeners, we'll link to this.In fact, I think we'll put a picture of it in the email that we send out.I found it on the Wayback Machine.You can actually see Pixar posted it to their website.After 10 months of trying to strike a deal with Disney, we're moving on.We've had a great run together, one of the most successful in Hollywood history.

他向艾斯纳提出一个方案，而这正是两家关系彻底无法修复的地方。皮克斯应该拿到 100% 的利润，而不是 50%。而且他们现在准备自己出制作预算。迪士尼只拿 10% 的发行费，跟卢卡斯影业与福克斯的协议差不多。最后再加一条：乔布斯要求迪士尼放弃对过往影片的共同所有权。乔布斯知道，此时此刻迪士尼非常需要皮克斯。艾斯纳寸步不让，拒绝了。说实话，史蒂夫这次要得太多了。这笔账对迪士尼在经济上根本不成立，因为在史蒂夫搭出来的那个稻草人方案里，迪士尼几乎没有任何上行空间。但话说回来，在皮克斯是眼下唯一还转得动的东西时失去它，那得多疼。是啊。除了 ESPN 之外。是的。于是这一切走到 2004 年 1 月，皮克斯宣布终止谈判，还发了一份新闻稿。听众朋友，我们会附上链接。事实上我们大概会把它的截图放进邮件里发出去。我是在互联网档案馆（Wayback Machine）上找到的，你能看到皮克斯当年把它发在了自己网站上：在与迪士尼尝试达成协议十个月之后，我们要往前走了。我们一起走过一段精彩的历程，是好莱坞历史上最成功的合作之一。

[2:33:01] David Rosenthal

And it's a shame that Disney won't be participating in Pixar's future successes.Classic Steve Jobs.That is definitely written by Steve personally.Definitely written by Steve.The deal will be up after Pixar finishes out the contract with The Incredibles in 2004 and Cars in 2005.Pixar is actively in talks with other Hollywood studios.They think at this point they just need a distributor.Disney actually does start a new studio inside the company called Circle 7 Animation that will be tasked with developing right away Toy Story 3, Monsters, Inc. 2, and Finding Nemo 2.Yep.I think they had actually done work on Toy Story 3.Man, you can bet that that is buried pretty deep in the vault these days.Yes.So, all this happens in the last breaths of the Eisner administration.Yeah, this is part of the backdrop happening during the Save Disney campaign, the Comcast offer, the shareholder proxy vote, the CEO search.In fact, in that earnings call that blew the doors off.Yeah, it wasn't just Pirates of the Caribbean.It was Nemo.Exactly.Exactly.Both of those movies opened in that quarter.Yep.So, this brings us back to Bob Iger's phone call to Steve and his conviction that Pixar needed to come in and be part of Disney and not just be owned by Disney, but take over Disney animation.

很遗憾迪士尼将无缘参与皮克斯未来的成功。经典的史蒂夫·乔布斯。这绝对是史蒂夫亲笔写的。绝对是史蒂夫写的。片约将在皮克斯履行完合同——2004 年的《超人总动员》和 2005 年的《赛车总动员》——之后到期。皮克斯正在积极接触其他好莱坞制片厂。他们此时认为自己只需要一个发行方。迪士尼这边真的在公司内部成立了一家新工作室，叫「Circle 7 动画」，任务是立刻着手开发《玩具总动员 3》《怪兽电力公司 2》和《海底总动员 2》。是的。我记得他们其实已经在《玩具总动员 3》上做过一些工作了。老兄，你可以打赌那些东西如今被埋在保险库的最深处。没错。这一切都发生在艾斯纳时代的最后几口气里。对，这是「拯救迪士尼」运动、康卡斯特的收购要约、股东委托书投票、CEO 遴选那段背景的一部分。事实上在那场把大门都掀翻了的财报电话会上——对，不只是《加勒比海盗》。还有《海底总动员》。正是。正是。这两部片子都在那个季度上映。是的。所以这就把我们带回鲍勃·艾格打给史蒂夫的那通电话，以及他的那份笃定：皮克斯需要进来成为迪士尼的一部分，而且不只是被迪士尼拥有，还要去接管迪士尼动画。

[2:34:29]

Which is a crazy call to get if you're Steve Jobs, right?Like, hey, my predecessor burned the bridge.I'd like to buy you.I'm basically open to any price.And also, I would like you guys to come and take over the core business that we operate, the most prestigious animation studio in the world.We're waving the white flag we've lost.Please come in here and take over and fix this.Yep.And I think Steve is so surprised that it opens the door and it leads to this great relationship between the two of them.Once again, just like Bob made peace with Roy and instantly fixed that relationship, he pretty much instantly fixes the Steve Jobs relationship.So, listeners, we talked to Bob Iger as part of the prep we were doing for this episode.Bob had this idea and before he called Steve, he went to the board and said, hey, can I have authorization to like open a conversation with Steve Jobs about buying Pixar?

如果你是史蒂夫·乔布斯，接到这通电话得多离谱，对吧？就像：嘿，我的前任把桥烧了。我想买下你们。价格上我基本什么都可以谈。另外，我还想请你们进来接管我们经营的核心业务，也就是全世界最有声望的动画工作室。我们举白旗了，我们输了。请你们进来接手，把它修好。是啊。我认为史蒂夫太意外了，以至于这扇门被打开了，并促成了两人之间那段极好的关系。就像鲍勃跟罗伊握手言和、瞬间修复了那段关系一样，他几乎也是瞬间修复了和史蒂夫·乔布斯的关系。听众朋友，为了准备这期节目，我们和鲍勃·艾格聊过。鲍勃有了这个想法之后，在给史蒂夫打电话前，他先去找董事会说：嘿，能不能授权我跟史蒂夫·乔布斯开一个关于收购皮克斯的话头？

[2:35:24]

And he said that it was so unthinkable and such a surprise to the whole board that they forgot to say no.Yeah.That everyone was just like, sure, call him because they thought there was no chance that it could possibly result in Steve saying yes.So, Bob calls Steve back and floats this idea.Disney will buy Pixar, keep it fully intact as an independent studio up in the Bay Area, its own email addresses, its own culture, nothing will change.John and Ed will still run it and they'll also commute down to L.A. two days a week and take over and run Disney animation.And interestingly, Iger also said, hey, Lasseter and Catmull, you can also tell us you think Disney animation is unrescuable or that you think that you'd kill both things by splitting your time and you can just tell us you want to shut down Disney animation.And instead, Pixar will just become our one studio.Yeah.And Lasseter and Catmull have this like, we couldn't possibly do that.Like Disney animation is so important to where we all came from in the world and they fly down and they meet with people and they see, oh, there's actually great talent here.They're just not being led well.And we think we can apply our process and institute a brain trust and change the physical construction of the building and bring in the Pixar way and make this great again.

他说这件事对整个董事会来说太不可想象、太出人意料了，以至于他们忘了说「不」。是啊。所有人只是想：行啊，打给他吧，因为他们觉得史蒂夫根本不可能答应。于是鲍勃回电给史蒂夫，抛出了这个想法：迪士尼收购皮克斯，让它完整保留为一家独立工作室，留在湾区，保留自己的邮箱域名、自己的文化，什么都不变。约翰和艾德继续管皮克斯，同时每周通勤到洛杉矶两天，去接管并运营迪士尼动画。有意思的是，艾格还说：嘿，拉塞特和卡特姆，你们也可以告诉我们你们认为迪士尼动画已经救不活了，或者认为一心二用会把两边都毁掉，你们可以直接告诉我们你们想关掉迪士尼动画，那样皮克斯就成为我们唯一的工作室。是的。而拉塞特和卡特姆的反应是：我们绝不可能那么做。迪士尼动画对我们所有人的来处太重要了。于是他们飞过去，见了那里的人，然后发现：噢，这里其实有很棒的人才，只是没有被好好带领。我们认为可以把我们的流程搬过来，建立智囊团（brain trust），改造楼的物理构造，把皮克斯那一套带进来，让它重新伟大。

[2:36:43]

And they do.I mean, that's the crazy thing is that it was John and Ed's option to look at the enemy and, you know, chop off their head.Decide what to do.And instead, they said, no, no, no, we're going to come in there and we're going to make this thing great.Yeah.So pretty quickly, they come to terms on a deal.$7.4 billion in Disney stock, newly issued Disney stock, which will make Steve Jobs the largest shareholder in Disney.7%.Yep.I think it was a 7.7% stake in the company and he'll join the board.Much larger than the entire Disney family put together by this point.Yep.So it's all done.Both boards approve the deal.They're ready to announce it.Bob flies up to Emeryville to the Pixar campus the morning of the announcement.And before the official time when they're going to announce the deal, meet with the whole company,Steve comes up to Bob and says, let's take a walk on the Pixar campus.Just the two of us walk for a bit.They sit down on a bench.And Steve says, I have to tell you something and you have to keep it confidential.My cancer is back.And I don't know how much longer I'm going to live.This is January 2006.Right as they're about to announce the acquisition.And Steve says, I thought about it.

他们做到了。我是说，最疯狂的一点是：约翰和艾德本来有权看着这个宿敌、把它的头砍下来。由他们决定怎么处置。而他们说的却是：不不不，我们要进去，把这东西做伟大。是啊。所以他们很快谈妥了条件：74 亿美元的迪士尼股票，新增发的迪士尼股票，这会让史蒂夫·乔布斯成为迪士尼的最大股东。7%。是的。我记得是 7.7% 的股份，而且他会进董事会。比到那个时候整个迪士尼家族加起来还大得多。是的。于是全部谈定，两家董事会都通过了这笔交易，准备宣布。宣布当天早上，鲍勃飞到埃默里维尔的皮克斯园区。在正式宣布、与全公司见面的时间点之前，史蒂夫走到鲍勃面前说：我们在皮克斯园区里走走吧，就我们俩，走一会儿。他们坐到一张长椅上。史蒂夫说：我得告诉你一件事，你必须保密。我的癌症复发了。我不知道自己还能活多久。这是 2006 年 1 月，就在他们即将宣布这笔收购之前。史蒂夫说：我想过了。

[2:38:08]

And I feel I have an obligation to tell you before we announce the deal.And I want to give you an option to back out if you want, knowing that I'm about to becomeyour largest shareholder.And I don't know what's going to happen to my stake after I die.Bob says, wow, that's a lot.And I've got 30 minutes.Yeah, I've got 30 minutes to decide.And I can tell no one.Steve is ever the negotiator.But he makes the decision that the deal is still on.But oh, man, it's devastating.So Steve would end up living another five and a half years after this.But he and Bob and Apple and then eventually the rest of the world knows soon.It's just all borrowed time.And this is why Steve sold Pixar.One of the questions that we had going into the research for this episode was, could Pixarhave actually built a full stack flywheel based competitor to Disney if they'd remainedindependent?

我觉得我有义务在我们宣布交易之前告诉你。我想给你一个反悔的机会——毕竟你知道我马上就要成为你们的最大股东，而我不知道我死后我的股份会怎么样。鲍勃说：哇，这信息量有点大。而我只有 30 分钟。对，我只有 30 分钟做决定。而且不能告诉任何人。史蒂夫永远是那个谈判者。但他做出了决定：交易照旧。但天哪，这太让人难受了。史蒂夫在这之后又活了五年半。但他、鲍勃、苹果，以及后来全世界，很快都知道了：这全是借来的时间。这就是史蒂夫卖掉皮克斯的原因。我们做这期资料时带着的问题之一是：如果皮克斯保持独立，它有没有可能真的建起一个全栈的、以飞轮为基础的迪士尼竞争者？

[2:39:13]

I mean, they had defeated Disney.Like they won on every dimension.And why did they sell?And we asked all the Disney people this.We asked all the Pixar people this.And we asked everyone we could this question.Because from a business strategy lens, they have what it takes.Like they have the core IP.They have movies.They could slowly move into theme parks.After the five films, they would have control of their own sequel and merch rights.And they could do it.And it took us talking to all the people involved to realize, no, there was no chance.Pixar never, ever, ever would have done what it takes to become Disney.So I think there's two reasons.One, Pixar is what Walt wanted the Burbank Animation Campus to be when he built it in 1940.It is a utopian, creative artist's paradise.There are no suits at Pixar.It's all about the stories and the art and the films.And amazingly, by getting acquired, they kept it that way.Yes.I mean, there were no suits in the early days, but all the suits are in Burbank.It just gets to be creative in Emeryville.So it's this crazy course of history that allows this like treasure to exist in Emeryville in a way that it couldn't at Disney.Like it didn't work at Disney Animation in Burbank to make it this utopian paradise because it had to be a business too.

我是说，他们已经打败了迪士尼。在每一个维度上他们都赢了。那为什么要卖？我们问了所有迪士尼的人这个问题，问了所有皮克斯的人，问了我们能问到的每一个人。因为从商业战略的镜头看，他们具备条件：他们有核心 IP，他们有电影，他们可以慢慢进入主题公园，五部片约结束后他们将掌握自己的续集权和周边权。他们做得到。而只有跟所有当事人聊完，我们才明白：不，没有任何机会。皮克斯永远、永远、永远不会去做成为迪士尼所必须做的那些事。我觉得有两个原因。第一，皮克斯就是 1940 年华特建伯班克动画园区时想要它成为的样子：一个乌托邦式的、创作者与艺术家的天堂。皮克斯没有西装革履的人，一切都围绕故事、艺术和电影。而神奇的是，正是通过被收购，他们把这一点保住了。是的。我是说早期确实没有西装革履的人，但后来所有的「西装」都在伯班克，埃默里维尔那边只需要负责创作。所以是这条疯狂的历史路径让这件宝物得以在埃默里维尔存在，而它在迪士尼内部是存在不了的。在伯班克的迪士尼动画就做不成这种乌托邦天堂，因为它还必须同时是一门生意。

[2:40:47]

Yeah.The reason that could happen before they sold to Disney was Steve Jobs.Right.Like it was only Steve that could have done it.And I do think if Steve had lived and if he had felt he had the energy to do it alongside Apple or maybe who knows, even merge the two companies, he could have done it.He could have built a Disney competitor, but he knew he was he was going to die.Right.But without Steve, you could imagine the rest of the Pixar folks looking at each other like who of us has any interest in doing that?

是啊。而在他们卖给迪士尼之前之所以能做到这一点，原因是史蒂夫·乔布斯。对。只有史蒂夫能做到。而且我确实认为，如果史蒂夫活下来，如果他觉得自己有精力在经营苹果的同时做这件事，甚至谁知道呢，把两家公司合并，他是能做成的。他能建起一个迪士尼的竞争者。但他知道自己要死了。对。而没有史蒂夫，你可以想象皮克斯剩下的那帮人互相看着，心想：我们当中有谁对干那种事有兴趣？

[2:41:20]

No, we just want to keep making unbelievably good stories and delighting audiences and making the very best feature films we can.Yeah.Which does not make a Disney competitor.Yep.So Pixar had to find a home.And in particular, Disney is the home.This is the thing that brings it full circle.The Walt era of animation had a spiritual successor, which was the Disney Renaissance, which had a spiritual successor that was Pixar.Yes, absolutely.And this leads to the revival of Disney animation.Princess and the Frog, Tangled, Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Moana.All Pixar era.Meanwhile, the hits just keep on rolling at Pixar, Cars, Ratatouille.That was like a big thing before the acquisition.Word had gotten out that Pixar was working on a movie about rats making food.In a kitchen.Yeah.Who could do that?

没有，我们只想继续做好到不可思议的故事，取悦观众，做出我们能做的最好的长片。是啊。而那成不了迪士尼的竞争者。没错。所以皮克斯必须找个归宿。而这个归宿恰恰是迪士尼——这就是让整件事闭环的地方。华特时代的动画有一个精神继承者，那就是迪士尼复兴时代；而复兴时代又有一个精神继承者，那就是皮克斯。完全同意。这也带来了迪士尼动画的复活：《公主与青蛙》《魔发奇缘》《冰雪奇缘》《超能陆战队》《疯狂动物城》《海洋奇缘》，全是皮克斯时代的作品。与此同时，皮克斯这边的爆款也在不断产出：《赛车总动员》《美食总动员》。《美食总动员》在收购前还成了件大事，因为消息传出去说皮克斯在做一部关于老鼠做饭的电影。在厨房里。对。谁会拍这个？

[2:42:19]

What a terrible idea.Oh, amazing movie.WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, Brave, Inside Out.Just the best.So years later, after many of these movies come out, during the months before Steve died, he and his wife Lorraine have one last dinner with Bob Iger and his wife Willow.And during it, Steve raises a glass and a toast to Bob and them together and says, look what we did.We saved two companies.The first time I read that years ago, I thought, I don't really get it.Like, I get that it saved Disney, but how did it save Pixar?

多糟糕的点子啊。噢，结果是部了不起的电影。《机器人总动员》《飞屋环游记》《玩具总动员 3》《勇敢传说》《头脑特工队》，全是顶级的。很多年之后，在这些电影陆续上映、史蒂夫去世前的那几个月里，他和妻子劳伦（Laurene）与鲍勃·艾格和他妻子威洛（Willow）共进了最后一次晚餐。席间史蒂夫举杯，向鲍勃、向他们两人一起做成的事致敬，说：看看我们做成了什么，我们救了两家公司。多年前我第一次读到这句话时想，我不太懂。我懂它救了迪士尼，但它怎么救了皮克斯？

[2:43:02]

And then now, doing the full research and understanding, Steve was going to die.And that Pixar really couldn't continue independently without him.And that's how they saved two companies together.It's just such an incredible story.Yeah, it is.To validate the Disney animation thing, I mean, I really wondered about this.How did Disney animation turn into that hit factory?

而现在，做完全部资料研究才明白：史蒂夫要死了，而没有他，皮克斯真的没法独立走下去。这就是他们一起救了两家公司的含义。这故事实在太不可思议了。是啊，确实。为了验证迪士尼动画这件事——我是真的很好奇——迪士尼动画是怎么变成那样一个爆款工厂的？

[2:43:29]

They're not Pixar movies, but, like, they rhyme so closely.We were talking with Kristen Bell to prep for this episode, who, of course, plays Anna in Frozen.And she very much confirmed the way that Disney animation works today is similar to that Pixar blueprint from the early 90s.It's an iterative process.It's an iterative process.All about making sure that you're feeling if the story is landing when you're looking at the early reels and the scripts.This collaborative way to take the notes without ego.Having a willingness to stop, take apart the story, rebuild it if it's not working.Her perspective was like, this actually has a lot to do with why Disney the company works.Yeah, I mean, super validating to hear that.Now, what is it, 20 years after the acquisition?

它们不是皮克斯电影，但它们的韵脚太接近了。我们为准备这期节目跟克里斯汀·贝尔（Kristen Bell）聊过，她当然就是《冰雪奇缘》里安娜的配音。她非常明确地证实：今天迪士尼动画的运作方式，和 90 年代初的那套皮克斯蓝图很相似。这是一个迭代的过程。是一个迭代的过程。核心是在看早期样片和剧本时，去感受故事有没有落地。是那种不带自尊心地接收意见的协作方式。是愿意停下来、把故事拆开、如果不成立就重建的意愿。她的看法是：这其实和迪士尼这家公司为什么能跑得通有很大关系。是啊，听到这个特别有印证感。现在算起来，收购之后已经 20 年了？

[2:44:14] Ben Gilbert

Yeah.So if we sit here today and look back at the Pixar acquisition, it's just such an obvious giant, giant success.I mean, the first thing is it clearly saved Disney animation, which if you believe the thesis that that's the center of everything good and durable at the company, then great.Pencils down.Easy answer.They paid $7.4 billion.$6.4 billion when you back out the billion of cash.But effectively, $6.4 billion is the hurdle that you're trying to overcome.There's a couple of ways to slice it.David, you and I did the Finding Nemo exercise earlier.There's another exercise you can run, kind of going franchise by franchise.Toy Story alone did over $4 billion at the box office, which means $1.5 to $2 billion to Disney.$30 billion in retail sales so far, lifetime of all Toy Story consumer goods.So with Disney's 5% licensing fee on that, that's another $2 billion.So that's $3.5 billion conservatively in very high margin revenue to Disney before you even start thinking about the contribution to Disney parks.Yep.They have 19 attractions across four lands with two hotels or doing any attribution from Disney Plus revenue or any of the licensing deals that they did for a long time with Netflix.

是的。所以如果我们今天坐在这里回看皮克斯这笔收购，它就是一个明显到不能再明显的巨大成功。首先，它显然救了迪士尼动画；如果你相信「动画是这家公司一切美好而持久之物的中心」这个论点，那么好——收笔，答案很简单。他们付了 74 亿美元。扣掉那 10 亿现金就是 64 亿美元。实际上 64 亿美元就是你要跨过的那道门槛。有几种算法。大卫，你和我刚才算过《海底总动员》那一笔。还有另一种算法，是按一个个系列去算。光《玩具总动员》系列的全球票房就超过 40 亿美元，意味着有 15 亿到 20 亿美元归迪士尼。而《玩具总动员》全部消费品的终身零售额至今超过 300 亿美元。按迪士尼 5% 的授权费算，那又是 20 亿美元。所以保守估计，这就是 35 亿美元的、毛利率极高的收入进了迪士尼——而且这还没开始算它对迪士尼乐园的贡献。是的。他们在四个园区有 19 个游乐项目和两家酒店，也还没算 Disney+ 收入的任何归因，或者他们和 Netflix 做了很多年的那些授权协议。

[2:45:31] Ben Gilbert

Yep.Or man, any of that sweet, sweet home video revenue back in the day from Toy Story 1 and Toy Story 2.So you get at least half, probably two-thirds the purchase price back from the Toy Story franchise alone, even without all of that ancillary sort of flywheel revenue.But really here, I think, is the most useful way to justify it.We've heard that the vast majority of the top 15 movies viewed every week on Disney Plus are either Pixar or Disney animation.Not live action, not Star Wars, not the Avengers.The stuff that kids watch over and over.And those Disney animation movies are all the top ones that they're actually watching, kids these days, are the post-2005 Catmull and Lasseter era films.Kids are not sitting there binging Snow White on repeat.They're watching Frozen and Encanto and Moana and Zootopia.And this is on Disney Plus, which is the biggest strategic bet that the company has made in the last decade.I mean, all of their chips are there for the future of the company.Yep.No question.Acquisition absolutely saved the company.So, after Pixar, Bob and the Disney board are like, well, that worked well.What can we do next?

是的。还有天哪，当年《玩具总动员 1》和《玩具总动员 2》那些甜得不能再甜的家庭录像收入。所以光靠《玩具总动员》这一个系列，你就能收回至少一半、可能三分之二的收购价，而且还不算所有那些附带的飞轮收入。但我觉得，真正最有说服力的论证方式是这个：我们听说 Disney+ 上每周观看量前 15 的电影里，绝大多数不是皮克斯就是迪士尼动画。不是真人电影，不是《星球大战》，不是《复仇者联盟》。是孩子们一遍又一遍看的东西。而那些迪士尼动画电影里，如今孩子们真正在看的排名最靠前的，全部是 2005 年之后卡特姆和拉塞特时代的作品。孩子们不会坐在那儿循环刷《白雪公主》，他们看的是《冰雪奇缘》《魔法满屋》《海洋奇缘》和《疯狂动物城》。而这是在 Disney+ 上——公司过去十年下的最大战略赌注。他们把所有筹码都押在那儿，赌公司的未来。是的。毫无疑问。这笔收购绝对救了这家公司。所以在皮克斯之后，鲍勃和迪士尼董事会想：嗯，这招管用。下一步能做什么？

[2:46:52] Ben Gilbert

And that sure is in line with Bob's point number one in his three-point strategy of making the very best content.But before we talk about the other two of Bob's big three acquisitions, Marvel and Lucasfilm,now is a great time to thank our friends at Anthropic, the makers of Claude.Yes.And today, we are going to share how Claude saved us on recording day a couple months ago on our Disney Part 1 episode.So, David, do you want to set the scene?

而这也完全符合鲍勃三点战略里的第一条：做最好的内容。不过在我们聊鲍勃三大收购里的另外两笔——漫威和卢卡斯影业——之前，现在正是感谢我们的朋友 Anthropic（Claude 的开发者）的好时候。没错。今天我们要讲讲几个月前录《迪士尼》上集那天，Claude 是怎么救了我们的。大卫，你来交代一下当时的情景？

[2:47:24] David Rosenthal

Yes.Yes.So, we are in the middle of recording part one.And recording days are always very time crunched.The whole thing feels like a high wire act.And right when we got to Snow White's box office numbers, we realized that a bunch of authoritative sources listed $8 million as the revenue for Snow White's box office and its original release.But we also had Disney's actual 1940 financial statements in front of us, and they showed $4.5 million.We immediately thought, well, those can't both be right, and started reconciling the two numbers.We couldn't, and so we had to pause recording.So, this was actually the day that Fable 5 came out.So, while David and I were trying to sort through, I figured I'd let Claude kind of give it a shot.We uploaded photos we took of the original financials along with another annual report that we had showing how the revenue breakdowns actually worked.And Claude untangled the whole thing for us.There are actually two different ways to report movie revenue.Gross box office, which was that $8 million, and film rentals, which is Disney and the distributors share after the theaters take their cut.That is the $4.5 million number.All the sources we found saying $8 million in revenue to Disney were actually wrong, and Claude figured that out.

好。好的。当时我们正录到上集中段。录制日永远都时间紧张，整件事像走钢丝。就在我们讲到《白雪公主》的票房数字时，我们发现一堆权威来源都把《白雪公主》首轮上映的票房收入列为 800 万美元。但我们手上同时有迪士尼 1940 年的真实财务报表，上面写的是 450 万美元。我们立刻想：这两个不可能都对，于是开始对这两个数字。对不上，只好暂停录制。而那天恰好是 Fable 5 发布的日子。所以在大卫和我一边琢磨的时候，我想干脆让 Claude 试试。我们上传了我们拍的原始财报照片，还有另一份显示收入拆分口径的年报。Claude 把整件事给我们理清楚了：电影收入其实有两种统计口径——一种是票房总收入（gross box office），也就是那 800 万美元；另一种是影片租金（film rentals），即影院分成之后归迪士尼和发行方的部分，那就是 450 万美元这个数。我们找到的所有说迪士尼收入 800 万美元的来源其实都是错的，而 Claude 把这一点弄明白了。

[2:48:43] Ben Gilbert

Which is what let us develop the novel point that we hadn't seen anywhere else.Snow White's profits alone couldn't pay for the Burbank animation campus.Walt had to go borrow more money, which created the cascading set of events that we talked about in the rest of the episode.So, 20 minutes later, we were back to recording, and we were able to finish the episode both on time and be factually correct.Which is the clearest example I've ever personally had of Claude being able to solve a problem in the moment using analysis from primary sources that we couldn't find anywhere else in the middle of a live recording day within minutes.So, listeners, if you want to try out Fable now, or you just want to learn more, go to Claude.ai slash acquired.And if you're inquiring for your team or for API use, just tell them that Ben and David sent you.All right, so David, Star Wars.Star Wars and Marvel.

正是这一点让我们得以提出那个我们在别处从没见过的新观点：光靠《白雪公主》的利润付不起伯班克动画园区的钱，华特不得不再去借更多钱，从而引发了我们在这期节目其余部分讲到的那一连串连锁事件。所以 20 分钟后我们就回到录音，既按时录完了这期，内容也是事实正确的。这是我个人遇到过的最清晰的一个例子：Claude 能在直播式的录制日中间，在几分钟内用一手原始资料的分析，解决一个我们在任何别处都找不到答案的问题。所以听众朋友，如果你想现在就试试 Fable，或者只是想了解更多，去 Claude.ai/acquired。如果你是为团队或 API 用途来问的，就说是本和大卫让你来的。好，那么大卫，《星球大战》。《星球大战》和漫威。

[2:49:37] David Rosenthal

Well, Marvel is first.So, in 2009, Disney acquires Marvel for $4 billion.This was, like, highly contrarian at the time.People thought, you're spending $4 billion for a comic book company?The Marvel movies had already started to come out.Iron Man had come out.I think a couple others that had been hits.But nobody could see what Marvel would end up becoming under Disney.Yeah, superhero movies were not obviously formulaically going to work.Like, there had been Batmans many years before.There had been Supermans many years before.There had recently been a Spider-Man, which actually was licensed to Sony.Before pursuing this strategy, Marvel actually licensed out their best characters to other studios.And so, the acquisition was weird because it was kind of buying all these leftover characters.You couldn't use X-Men because Fox already had that.You couldn't use Spider-Man because Sony already had that.They already made a film out of Iron Man.And the big dogs, Superman and Batman, were over at DC.So, what are you even buying when you're buying Marvel?

先说漫威。2009 年，迪士尼以 40 亿美元收购漫威。这在当时是非常反共识的。人们想：你要花 40 亿美元买一家漫画公司？漫威电影当时已经开始上映了，《钢铁侠》出来了，我记得还有另外一两部也成了爆款。但没人能看见漫威在迪士尼手里最终会变成什么。是啊，超级英雄电影当时并不是明摆着能按公式跑通的东西。之前很多年有过《蝙蝠侠》系列，很多年前有过《超人》系列，最近有过《蜘蛛侠》——而那个其实是授权给索尼的。在采取这套策略之前，漫威实际上把自己最好的角色都授权给了别的制片厂。所以这笔收购很怪，因为你买到的有点像是剩下的边角角色：你不能用 X 战警，因为福克斯拿着；你不能用蜘蛛侠，因为索尼拿着；钢铁侠他们自己已经拍过了；而最大的两条狗超人和蝙蝠侠都在 DC 那边。那你买漫威到底买的是什么？

[2:50:52] David Rosenthal

But the team at Marvel Studios and Disney really figured it out.We're not going to go into all the details here, but they crafted the Marvel Cinematic Universein a way that became the blueprint for anybody else who wants to universify their franchise.This very careful world building of all these interconnected movies,eventually culminating in the Avengers movie.The first three phases of the Marvel Cinematic Universe were really this franchise-building masterclass to behold.By 2025, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has become the most successful film franchise in history,generating nearly $32 billion at the box office.That's more than Star Wars.That's more than James Bond.Anything else.Now, it helps to have 37 films plus Avengers Endgame, which was the second highest grossing film of all time,second only to Avatar, I think.Yeah, I think that's right.And it's pretty difficult to estimate the profitability on this because there's too many assumptions you have to bake in.But it's fair to say there are single-digit billions in profit from the box office alone on Marvel movies.And then, of course, there's the consumer products and the park adaptations and actually home video for a while since those Marvel movies were still in the Blu-ray era.

但漫威影业和迪士尼的团队真的把它想明白了。我们这里不展开所有细节，但他们打造漫威电影宇宙（MCU）的方式，成了此后任何想把自家系列「宇宙化」的人的蓝图：把这些互相勾连的电影做极其精细的世界观搭建，最终汇流到《复仇者联盟》。MCU 的前三个阶段真的是一堂值得围观的系列打造大师课。到 2025 年，漫威电影宇宙已经成为影史上最成功的电影系列，全球票房接近 320 亿美元。比《星球大战》多，比《007》多，比任何其他系列都多。当然，这也得益于它有 37 部电影，外加《复仇者联盟：终局之战》——史上票房第二高的电影，我记得仅次于《阿凡达》。对，我觉得是这样。至于盈利能力，很难估算，因为要塞进去的假设太多。但可以说，仅漫威电影的票房这一块就有个位数十亿美元级别的利润。当然还有消费品、乐园改造，以及有一段时间的家庭录像收入，因为那些漫威电影还赶上了蓝光时代。

[2:52:15] David Rosenthal

And then, of course, part of the reason people subscribe to Disney Plus.So Marvel's also been great.Yeah, Marvel's also been fantastic.I think, really, it was another version of the same thesis of Pixar, which was there are great stories and storytellers here,and let's give them a bigger canvas to paint on.Yep.And it worked incredibly well.Incredibly, incredibly well.And then Lucasfilm in 2012 for another $4 billion.I would argue, again, very different dynamics, but a same version of the story.Here is one of, if not maybe the greatest story of the last hundred years in humanity, the original Star Wars saga.Of myth-making.Of myth-making.Yeah.And let's give that a greater canvas to paint on.Yeah.It's pretty interesting reflecting back on these, what a tear Iger was on, of identifying tier A-plus intellectual property franchises that had running room ahead of them and building the stable.Because now Disney owns so much of it that there's not much left.I mean, there's Harry Potter.There's the Nintendo universe.There are a few things left, but Iger kind of saw this before anyone else went in with a bigger checkbook that I think a lot of people would have been willing to go in with.Deluded Disney to do it.

当然，还有它是人们订阅 Disney+ 的原因之一。所以漫威也很棒。是的，漫威也非常出色。我觉得说到底，这是皮克斯那套论点的又一个版本：这里有很棒的故事和讲故事的人，我们给他们一块更大的画布去画。是的。而且成效好得惊人。惊人的好。然后是 2012 年的卢卡斯影业，又是 40 亿美元。我要说，动力机制很不一样，但故事版本是同一个：这是过去一百年人类最伟大的故事之一，甚至可能就是最伟大的那个——最初的《星球大战》正传。是造神话（myth-making）级别的。造神话级别的。是啊。我们来给它一块更大的画布。是的。回头看这些，挺有意思的：艾格当时是何等的势如破竹，他识别出了那些还有充足跑道的 A+ 级知识产权系列，并把它们收成一个马厩。因为现在迪士尼拥有的部分太多了，外面剩下的已经不多。我是说，还有《哈利·波特》，还有任天堂的宇宙，还剩下几样东西，但艾格算是比所有人都先看到了这一点，并且带着一本比我认为很多人愿意掏的更大的支票簿进场——把迪士尼「哄」着去做成了。

[2:53:46] David Rosenthal

These were, you know, stock acquisitions or much of it was.But now they own these things.It's also fun to sort of speculate on why Lucasfilm and Marvel were lower price tags than Pixar was, like dramatically lower.However, Lucasfilm seems easy to me in that it certainly hasn't generated as much returns.Yeah, they didn't have any movies in production.Right.It was certainly right to pay less than Pixar.Turns out they should have paid well less than whatever they were willing to pay for Marvel, too.Yeah.Because Star Wars just didn't turn out to have that much more exploitation ahead of it.And frankly, they weren't done as well.But, you know, the Avengers-Well, we'll get to that in a minute.Yeah.Yeah.Avengers had 37 films.And there's new Star Wars stuff I like.Andor's unbelievably good.Rogue One is unbelievably good.But, yeah.Yeah.So, on the back of these three acquisitions, the Disney flywheel is revived and soaring again.The core film characters and stories are back to all-time heights, not only at Disney Animation, but now Pixar, Lucasfilm, and Marvel, too.The core of Disney is much bigger and more diverse than it used to be.Consumer products, after Frozen comes out, Disney sells 3 million Elsa and Anna dresses in the first year after the movie's released.

而且这些大多是以股票支付的收购。但现在这些东西归他们了。另外，猜一猜卢卡斯影业和漫威为什么比皮克斯便宜——而且是便宜得多——也挺有意思。不过卢卡斯影业在我看来很好解释：它确实没有带来那么多回报。是啊，他们手上当时也没有在制作中的电影。对。付得比皮克斯少肯定是对的。事后看，他们连为漫威愿意付的那个价，都该付得更少才对。是啊。因为《星球大战》后来被证明并没有那么多可开发的余量，而且坦白说，做得也没那么好。不过话说回来，《复仇者联盟》——我们一会儿再说这个。对。对。《复仇者联盟》有 37 部电影。而且新的《星球大战》里也有我喜欢的，《安多》好得不可思议，《侠盗一号》好得不可思议。但是，是啊。所以，靠着这三笔收购，迪士尼的飞轮复活并再度腾飞。核心的电影角色与故事回到历史最高水位，不仅在迪士尼动画，还包括皮克斯、卢卡斯影业和漫威。迪士尼的核心比过去大得多也多元得多。消费品这边，《冰雪奇缘》上映后的第一年，迪士尼卖出了 300 万条艾莎和安娜的裙子。

[2:55:05] David Rosenthal

By 2015, Disney is doing over $50 billion a year in gross sales at retail of merchandise, up almost 2X over the past five years.That is the health of the characters and IP in the company right there.Music, hit songs are back for Disney.Let It Go wins the Oscar for best song.And get this, this is wild.The Frozen soundtrack is the best-selling album of 2014, selling 10 million copies with streaming equivalents in there.Even beating 1989 from Taylor Swift.Wow.

到 2015 年，迪士尼的商品零售总额（gross sales at retail）超过每年 500 亿美元，比过去五年增长了近一倍。那就是这家公司角色和 IP 健康度的直接体现。音乐方面，迪士尼的热门歌曲也回来了。《Let It Go》拿了奥斯卡最佳原创歌曲。而且听这个，这太疯狂了：《冰雪奇缘》原声带是 2014 年全美最畅销专辑，算上流媒体等效销量卖了 1000 万张，甚至打败了泰勒·斯威夫特的《1989》。哇。

[2:55:43] David Rosenthal

My girls love Taylor, but they might love Frozen even more.Wow.The parks are revived.Disney launches Cars Land in L.A. in 2012.So, fun fact about that, they were originally, before the acquisition of Pixar, developing Car Land.Mm.And then they bought Pixar and they thought, oh, well, let's just make Cars Land.Yeah.This is back when the Imagineers independently developed lands that were unrelated to franchise flywheel stuff.Yep.Overall, parks revenue nearly doubles and operating income nearly triples in the decade from 2005 when Bob takes over to 2015.And, yeah, overall during that time period, Disney's market cap is up 4X to $200 billion, up from the $50 billion when Bob took over.Overall, revenue grows from $32 billion to $52 billion.Operating income goes from $4.7 to $14.7 billion.Incredible.And I'm going to keep bringing this back to cable profits because that continues to be this guaranteed, contractual, cash-gushing business that they have.If you go line up those three acquisitions, which sound ludicrous on their price tags, especially when you didn't know how they were going to pay off.Pixar at $7.4 billion.Let's even include the cash in there.That's about two and a half years of cable's then profit.

我家闺女们爱泰勒，但她们可能更爱《冰雪奇缘》。哇。乐园也复活了。迪士尼 2012 年在洛杉矶推出了「赛车总动员天地」（Cars Land）。关于这个有个趣闻：在收购皮克斯之前，他们本来在开发的是「汽车天地」（Car Land）。嗯。然后他们买了皮克斯，就想：噢，那干脆做成「赛车总动员天地」吧。是啊。那还是幻想工程师（Imagineers）独立开发、跟系列飞轮无关的园区的年代。是的。总体上，从 2005 年鲍勃接手到 2015 年这十年，乐园收入接近翻倍，营业利润接近翻三倍。而且整个这段时间里，迪士尼市值涨了 4 倍到 2000 亿美元，鲍勃接手时是 500 亿美元。总收入从 320 亿美元增长到 520 亿美元，营业利润从 47 亿美元增长到 147 亿美元。惊人。而我要不断把话题拉回有线电视的利润，因为它一直是那门有保证的、合同锁定的、现金喷涌的生意。如果你把那三笔价签听起来离谱的收购排在一起看——尤其是在你当时并不知道它们会怎么回本的情况下：皮克斯 74 亿美元，就算把现金也算进去，那大约相当于有线电视当时两年半的利润。

[2:57:15] Ben Gilbert

Marvel at $4 billion?That's less than one year in 2009 of cable profits.And Lucasfilm in 2012, their $4 billion was well under a year of cable profits.ESPN kept providing the cash to do all of this.Such a good point.ESPN paid for Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm.With about four years of ESPN cable profits.Right.It's almost like a Buffett type thing where Buffett has things in his portfolio that are cash producers and cash consumers.And he's just trying to construct the most efficient way to get cash out of the cash producers where you can't effectively reinvest the capital and put the cash into places where you can reinvest the capital.Yep.So speaking of ESPN, come 2015, ESPN and all the rest of Disney is really riding high.The strategy looks completely genius.And Wall Street loves it.And consumers love it.And the franchises are all healthy and producing stuff people love.And the parks are doing great.Everyone at Disney looks like geniuses.Yep.As you pointed out, it's like Bob has finally figured out a way to marry these two sides of the company.Use the cash flow geyser from ESPN to add and feed to the flywheel on the Disney side.It's all working great.Yep.Unfortunately, the stock hit an all-time high on the very same day as Disney's Q3 2015 earnings call.

漫威 40 亿美元？那不到 2009 年有线电视一年的利润。而 2012 年的卢卡斯影业，那 40 亿美元也远低于一年的有线电视利润。是 ESPN 一直在提供做这一切的现金。这个点特别好。ESPN 买下了皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业，用的大约是四年的 ESPN 有线电视利润。对。这几乎有点像巴菲特那一套：巴菲特的组合里有些东西是产生现金的，有些是消耗现金的；他做的就是用最有效率的方式，把现金从那些无法有效再投资的现金产出方抽出来，投到那些可以有效再投资的地方去。是的。说到 ESPN，到了 2015 年，ESPN 和迪士尼其余部分都风头正劲。这套战略看上去完全是天才手笔。华尔街爱它，消费者爱它，各个系列都很健康、产出人们喜爱的东西，乐园也很好。迪士尼所有人看起来都像天才。是的。就像你指出的，鲍勃终于找到了把公司这两侧撮合到一起的办法：用 ESPN 的现金流喷泉去给迪士尼这一侧的飞轮加料助推。一切运转良好。是的。不幸的是，股价创下历史新高的那天，恰恰就是迪士尼 2015 财年第三季度财报电话会的同一天。

[2:58:52] Ben Gilbert

Well, an all-time high except for that weird COVID aberration.Right.That we'll get to.There was a little short-lived moment there where it went even higher there in 2021.Yep.So on that earnings call on August 4th, 2015, Bob Iger mentions that ESPN was experiencing, quote,modest subscriber losses due to consumer cord cutting of cable subscriptions.It would come out later in Disney's annual report that ESPN lost 3 million subscribers that year,which still meant it had 92 million in total.But still, they'd only ever grown.I mean, I think they hit around 100 million and kind of stayed flat for a while because 100 million households-Basically is all of America.Yeah.But ESPN and anything related to ESPN, revenue only ever went up.Profits only ever went up.Yeah.So this was a shock.Even though everyone had been talking for a while about-Oh, cord cutting is coming.And young people, when they move, they don't necessarily activate a cable subscription.They'd like to access stuff online.It was like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.But the numbers are still up into the right, so we're all good.Yep.This sets off a barely controlled freak out across the entire media landscape with ESPN andthis earnings call as like ground zero.

嗯，是历史新高——除了后来 COVID 期间那次奇怪的异动。对，我们后面会讲到。2021 年确实有过一小段昙花一现的时刻，股价还更高。是的。所以在 2015 年 8 月 4 日那场财报电话会上，鲍勃·艾格提到 ESPN 正在经历「因消费者剪线（cord cutting）取消有线电视订阅而带来的温和订户流失」。后来迪士尼年报里披露，ESPN 那年流失了 300 万订户，但总数仍有 9200 万。可即便如此，它以前从来只涨不跌。我是说，我记得它大概到过 1 亿户，然后横盘了一段时间，因为 1 亿户——基本上就是全美国了。对。但凡跟 ESPN 有关的东西，收入只会往上走，利润只会往上走。是啊。所以这是个冲击。尽管所有人已经念叨了一阵子——噢，剪线潮要来了；年轻人搬家时不一定会开通有线电视，他们想在网上看东西。当时的反应是：行行行行。但数字还在一路向右上，所以我们没事。是的。而这场财报会像是「震中」，在整个媒体版图上引爆了一场勉强被控制住的集体恐慌。

[3:00:18] David Rosenthal

People knew that this was coming, like you said, Ben.I mean, Netflix was already a $50 billion market cap company at this point.So shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone.But the very next day, Disney stock drops 10%.And over the next couple days, Fox, Time Warner, and Discovery all experienced similar drawdowns.And Viacom, which people view as even more indexed to the cable network landscape, gets whacked over 20%.And we should say, just so we don't bury the lead, Disney's stock price today is what it was then.Yep.It's gone up and down, but it is flat to 11 years ago.Yeah.Meanwhile, the S&P 500, David, what did you tell me is up how much in that time?

人们是知道这一天会来的，就像你说的，本。我是说，Netflix 那时已经是一家 500 亿美元市值的公司了，所以这本不该让任何人意外。但就在第二天，迪士尼股价跌了 10%。接下来几天，福克斯、时代华纳和 Discovery 都出现了类似幅度的回撤。而被认为对有线电视网络更敏感的维亚康姆（Viacom），跌了超过 20%。我们也该先把结论摆出来，免得埋没：迪士尼今天的股价和当时一样。是的。中间起起落落，但相对 11 年前是持平的。是啊。与此同时，标普 500 呢，大卫，你跟我说这段时间涨了多少？

[3:01:05] David Rosenthal

Three and a half X over that time period.Yeah.Now, market cap isn't everything, but it is a measure of what the investment community believes your company's cash flows are worth in the extreme long run.Yeah.So we're not here saying, you know, Disney's revenue's been flat or profit's been flat, although we'll get to all that.But what we are saying is 11 years ago, people thought Disney's future was exactly as bright in the form of future cash flows that they believe today.Yep.Well, we're about to talk about what happens to the whole rest of the traditional media landscape after this earnings call.Yeah.Disney managed to stay independent.Yeah.Yeah.Yeah.So that moment kicks off.I really don't know how to say it other than the most insane period of panicked frenzy in media landscape history.I mean, maybe in any industry's history.Basically, everyone in the TV and film landscape decides all at once that they need to take dramatic action to respond to cord cutting and the rise of streaming.So over the next couple of years, Time Warner sells itself to AT&T.AT&T changes its mind, spins out Time Warner, which then merges with Discovery.Viacom re-merges with CBS, but none of those brands are any good.

同期涨了三倍半。是的。当然，市值不代表一切，但它衡量的是投资界认为你公司在极长期里的现金流值多少钱。对。所以我们不是在说迪士尼的收入或利润这些年是持平的——这些我们后面都会讲——我们要说的是：11 年前，人们认为迪士尼未来的现金流前景，和他们今天认为的一样光明。是的。好，我们接下来要讲这场财报会之后，整个传统媒体版图的其余部分发生了什么。是啊。迪士尼好歹保住了独立。是的。是的。是的。所以那个时刻开启了——我真不知道该怎么形容，只能说是媒体史上最疯狂的一段恐慌狂潮，甚至可能是任何行业历史上的。基本上，电视和电影版图里的所有人在同一时间决定：必须采取激烈行动来应对剪线潮和流媒体的崛起。于是接下来几年里，时代华纳把自己卖给了 AT&T；AT&T 又改了主意，把时代华纳分拆出去，后者随即与 Discovery 合并；维亚康姆和 CBS 重新合并，但这些牌子没一个好使的。

[3:02:39] David Rosenthal

So they decide to name themselves Paramount after the studio that they own.Paramount almost collapses under its debt load.And David and Larry Ellison.Yes, of course, that Larry Ellison buy it and merge it into Skydance Media.So it becomes Skydance Paramount.Which is the thing that David Ellison kind of founded and runs.Yep.And then, of course, this all culminates in what's happening here real time here in 2026, where Warner Brothers Discovery almost gets bought by Netflix and instead looks like it's getting merged into the Paramount Skydance fever dream.So, like, it's insanity out there.Well, now on hold pending legal challenges as of recording date.So we'll see.But what's really happening is that all of these traditional media companies, with the exception of Disney, have basically all become kind of serfs in the streaming kingdoms of the technology companies, of which Netflix and YouTube are actually the winners here.Yeah, I think that's the right way to phrase it.I mean, if you just do the very simple exercise of looking who generates profits in the movie, TV, Hollywood landscape right now, it is Netflix, YouTube and Disney generating the large profit streams.Yep.So Disney decides to launch Disney Plus.

于是他们决定用旗下那家制片厂的名字，把自己命名为「派拉蒙」。派拉蒙差点在债务负担下垮掉。然后大卫·埃里森和拉里·埃里森——是的，就是那个拉里·埃里森——把它买下来，并入天舞传媒（Skydance Media），于是它变成了 Skydance Paramount。也就是大卫·埃里森一手创办并经营的那家。是的。当然，这一切最终演变成我们现在录制时、2026 年正在发生的事：华纳兄弟探索（Warner Bros. Discovery）差点被 Netflix 买下，结果看起来是要被并进派拉蒙-天舞这场热病梦里。所以外面就是一片疯狂。不过截至录制日，这事因法律挑战而暂时搁置。所以我们再看吧。但真正在发生的是：除迪士尼之外，所有这些传统媒体公司基本上都变成了科技公司流媒体王国里的农奴，而这些王国里的赢家其实是 Netflix 和 YouTube。是的，我觉得这个说法是对的。我是说，你只要做个非常简单的练习，看看现在电影、电视、好莱坞版图里谁在产生利润：是 Netflix、YouTube 和迪士尼在产生大额利润流。是的。于是迪士尼决定推出 Disney+。

[3:04:04] David Rosenthal

Bob and the board basically draw a line in the sand and they say, we are not going to just sit around and let ourselves get Netflixed like everyone else.We're going to stand and fight toe to toe.We are going to build our own direct to consumer streaming company.This goes back to Bob's priority number two in his strategy presentation to the board when he became CEO.And like, look, this is totally laudable.It's also arguably necessary.I mean, without Disney Plus and its own streaming service, Disney wouldn't have the ability to control discoverability of its films and shows.And like, that's so important.You want to get people into the parks.They got to interact with the IP and the characters.Yeah, it's funny.You and I sort of had this thesis coming in where you just keep the hundreds of millions of dollars that Netflix is paying you each year.And you keep putting your content on Netflix and other places and everything downstream of that, all the consumer products and parks and everything works better because you're spreading your content across the whole world.And the problem with that thesis is that once Netflix's algorithm controls whether families see your movies or not, you've got a big problem.

鲍勃和董事会基本上是划下了一条底线，说：我们不会像别人一样干坐着被 Netflix 化。我们要站出来正面硬碰硬。我们要自己建一家直面消费者（direct to consumer）的流媒体公司。这又回到鲍勃当 CEO 时给董事会那份战略陈述里的第二条优先级。而且说真的，这完全值得称道，也可以说是必须的。我是说，没有 Disney+、没有自己的流媒体服务，迪士尼就没有能力控制自己电影和剧集的可发现性（discoverability）。而那太重要了：你想让人们去乐园，他们就得先跟这些 IP 和角色发生互动。是啊，有意思的是，你和我进来时曾抱着另一种论点：你就把 Netflix 每年付给你的那几亿美元揣着，继续把内容放在 Netflix 和其他地方，这样下游的一切——消费品、乐园，所有东西——都会因为你的内容铺满全世界而运转得更好。而这套论点的问题在于：一旦 Netflix 的算法决定了家庭能不能看到你的电影，你就有大麻烦了。

[3:05:23] David Rosenthal

That's right.That's right.That you have no sort of guaranteed distribution having Disney Plus and we'll talk about all the tradeoffs involved in this in a minute because God are their tradeoffs.But the thesis is if we do this and we stand up our own streaming service, then we can form deep direct relationships with consumers.We can create these whole sort of universes on Disney Plus that more deeply explores the characters from given movies, which creates more IP that the parks can use, which creates these merchandising opportunities, spinoff shows, all this stuff.And on top of this, it's crazy to think that Disney didn't have any relationship with any of their customers prior to this unless you had visited a park for 100 years.If you bought a home video, you bought it from a retailer.If you went to a theater, you went to a theater.Or if you had a cable subscription, Disney did not know who you were.Yeah.Disney didn't collect revenue directly from consumers except in the parks.And they didn't collect email addresses or home addresses or demographic information.They just got the checks from the people that they were distributing through and trusted there was an end consumer on the other side.

没错。没错。你没有任何有保障的发行渠道。有了 Disney+，我们一会儿会聊到其中所有的取舍，因为天哪，取舍真的很多。但论点是：如果我们做成这件事、立起自己的流媒体服务，我们就能和消费者建立深度的直接关系。我们可以在 Disney+ 上创造出一整套宇宙，更深入地挖掘某部电影里的角色，从而创造出更多可供乐园使用的 IP，进而带来周边商品机会、衍生剧集，所有这些东西。而在这之上还有一点很疯狂：在此之前的一百年里，除非你去过乐园，否则迪士尼跟他们任何一位顾客都没有任何关系。你买家庭录像带是从零售商买的，你去影院是去影院，或者你有有线电视订阅——迪士尼根本不知道你是谁。是啊。除了乐园之外，迪士尼不直接向消费者收钱。他们也不收集邮箱地址、家庭住址或人口统计信息。他们只是从分销渠道那边收支票，然后相信另一端存在一个终端消费者。

[3:06:30] David Rosenthal

Yep.So after August 2015, Bob and the board decide very quickly, let's go build our own Netflix competitor.Or more accurately, let's go buy the pieces we need to build it.Because Disney doesn't have like any in-house capabilities to go build and operate an internet streaming service here.Right.And this is when Disney almost buys Twitter.The forgotten chapter.The forgotten chapter.Thankfully, the chapter that did not come to pass.So, yeah, they start looking around at like, okay, what scaled internet companies are out there that we could buy and use as a base to set up our streaming service?

是的。所以 2015 年 8 月之后，鲍勃和董事会很快决定：我们去建自己的 Netflix 竞品。或者更准确地说：我们去把需要的零件买回来拼出它。因为迪士尼内部根本没有任何能力去搭建和运营一个互联网流媒体服务。对。而这就是迪士尼差点买下推特的那一段。被遗忘的一章。被遗忘的一章。谢天谢地，这一章没有成真。所以他们开始四处物色：好，外面有哪些成规模的互联网公司是我们能买下来、当作搭建流媒体服务底座的？

[3:07:09] David Rosenthal

And basically, the only ones within reach are Twitter and Snapchat.Everything else is just too big.I mean, they're giant market cap companies.Jack Dorsey happens to also be on the Disney board at the time.So they basically get all the way to a deal.And then at the last minute, Bob backs out.He just like can't imagine Disney owning and operating Twitter.And that was probably the right decision.I think it was all papered and they were going to sign Monday morning and announce it, right?

而基本上，够得着的只有推特和 Snapchat，其他都太大了。我是说，那些都是巨型市值公司。而杰克·多西当时恰好也在迪士尼董事会里。所以他们基本上一路谈到了成交那一步，然后在最后一刻鲍勃退出了。他就是没法想象迪士尼去拥有和运营推特。那大概是个正确的决定。我记得合同都拟好了，本来周一早上就要签约并宣布，对吧？

[3:07:34] David Rosenthal

Yep.It was like Sunday night that he bailed on it.Yep.Something like that.It was very last minute.So once the Twitter deal falls apart, they turn to a far more logical candidate, although a more hidden one, BamTech.Yes.BamTech is this incredible story.It is a streaming technology platform that was part of Major League Baseball.They began a streaming service for baseball games all the way back in 2002.Initially, I remembered this from the research when I went back and looked at it, to start streaming Seattle Mariners games to Japan.That's right.Because Ichiro had come to MLB and was a phenomenon back in Japan.And I think Nintendo owned the Mariners at this point.That's right.That's right.Nintendo of America owned the Mariners.This group actually started Advanced Media by making websites.Yes.For MLB baseball teams.And then they got into streaming for Japan and Ichiro.Yep.And then their first, when they spun out of baseball, they, I think, stood up the streaming back end for the then fledgling HBO Now.Yes.Yes.And they also had taken on the NHL.So they were doing the NHL's streaming service.So it's kind of perfect.They can do sports streaming.They've run HBO Now, a streaming service for HBO.

是的。好像是周日晚上他撤了。对，差不多是这样，非常临门一脚。所以推特这笔交易黄了之后，他们转向了一个合理得多、但也隐蔽得多的候选者：BAMTech。是的。BAMTech 是个了不起的故事。它是一个流媒体技术平台，原本属于美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）。他们早在 2002 年就开始做棒球比赛的流媒体服务。我回头查资料时想起来，最初是为了把西雅图水手队的比赛直播到日本去。没错。因为铃木一朗来了 MLB，在日本是个现象级人物。而且我记得那会儿任天堂还持有水手队。对，没错。是任天堂美国分公司持有水手队。这个团队其实最早叫 Advanced Media，是做网站起家的。是的，给 MLB 各球队做网站。然后他们为了日本和一朗做起了流媒体。是的。然后他们从棒球大联盟分拆出来后，我记得第一单是为当时刚起步的 HBO Now 搭建流媒体后端。对。对。而且他们还接下了 NHL，也就是在做 NHL 的流媒体服务。所以这简直完美：他们能做体育流媒体，他们运营过 HBO Now，一个属于 HBO 的流媒体服务。

[3:08:51] David Rosenthal

It's perfect.So August 2016, Disney buys a 33% stake in BAM Tech from Major League Baseball with an option to increase that to a majority stake over the next couple of years.The next year in 2017, they announced that they're going to accelerate that option to purchase a controlling stake in BAM Tech.And they announced publicly that they will be launching an over-the-top direct-to-consumer streaming service for ESPN the next year in 2018.And then a Disney streaming service in 2019.And as part of the same announcement, Ben, like you alluded to, they say they will be ending their content agreements with Netflix and pulling all Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm content off of Netflix by 2019.Which Netflix was already paying them hundreds of millions of dollars annually for that content.Yep.And that's just pure profit.Yeah, no expenses associated with that.Which Disney at that point was generating about $15 billion in Disney-wide operating income at that time.So that's 2-ish percent of the company's profits are coming from that one Netflix deal.And they're just saying, all right, we're going to rip that up.We think it is worth it in the long run for us to start from zero, build an entire customer base, and then reach this customer base directly.

太完美了。于是 2016 年 8 月，迪士尼从棒球大联盟手里买下 BAMTech 33% 的股份，并附带一个未来几年内增持至控股的期权。第二年，也就是 2017 年，他们宣布将提前行使这个期权、拿下 BAMTech 的控股权。他们还公开宣布，将在次年、也就是 2018 年为 ESPN 推出一个 OTT（over-the-top）的直面消费者流媒体服务，然后在 2019 年推出迪士尼的流媒体服务。而在同一份公告里，本，就像你刚才提到的，他们说将终止与 Netflix 的内容协议，并在 2019 年前把所有迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业的内容从 Netflix 上撤下来。而 Netflix 当时每年为这些内容付给他们数亿美元。是的。而且那是纯利润。是啊，完全没有对应的成本。当时迪士尼全公司的营业利润大约是 150 亿美元。所以公司利润里大约有 2% 来自这一笔 Netflix 协议。而他们就是说：好，我们要把它撕了。我们认为从长期看，从零开始、建立一整套自有用户基础、然后直接触达这些用户，是值得的。

[3:10:15] David Rosenthal

And look, this is another point where having ESPN as part of the company as a bulwark, even though ESPN is now declining, is critical.Like, that's what enables Disney to do this.That's a great point.Right.And it means that you have to nerf the ESPN offering on streaming because you need to keep that gravy train flowing in.So the ESPN Plus thing that ended up debuting in 2018 was like-It's kind of a nothing burger.Yeah.All the content that almost no one wants to watch because all the good stuff is still on ESPN, the cable channel that prints cash.So we're going to leave it there.Thank you very much.And look, it's a really tough thing for the ESPN side of the business to move to direct-to-consumer.Because part of the whole magic of the affiliate fee business model is you get paid a subscriber fee whether those subscribers watch the channel or not.All of a sudden, you're now going to actual usage-based of like, hey, I'm only going to get paid by the people who want to watch this.Well, this is the magic of bundling is you get some money from the people who would never have paid you any money before if you were trying to sell just one product.There are way fewer people who are willing to subscribe for a high dollar amount, call it $30, to ESPN directly than there are people who are willing to pay $50, $70, $80, $100 for all the channels.

而且你看，这又是一个体现「有 ESPN 作为公司的堡垒有多关键」的点——哪怕 ESPN 此时已经在下滑。正是它让迪士尼有底气这么干。这个点特别好。对。而这也意味着你必须把 ESPN 的流媒体产品做「弱化处理（nerf）」，因为你得让那条现金奶牛的管道继续输血。所以 2018 年推出的 ESPN+ 基本上是——挺无聊的一个东西。对。全是几乎没人想看的内容，因为好东西都还留在 ESPN 有线频道上，那才是印钞的地方。所以我们就点到为止吧，非常感谢。而且说真的，对 ESPN 这一侧的业务来说，转向直面消费者是件极难的事。因为附属费（affiliate fee）商业模式的全部魔力就在于：不管订户看不看这个频道，你都能按订户数收到钱。突然之间，你要转成实际使用量为基础的模式：嘿，只有想看的人才会付钱给我。而这正是「打包捆绑（bundling）」的魔力所在——你能从那些本来一分钱都不会付给你的人身上收到钱，如果你只卖单一产品的话。愿意为 ESPN 单独付高价——比如 30 美元——的人，要远远少于愿意为全部频道付 50、70、80、100 美元的人。

[3:11:36] David Rosenthal

You're missing out on all of those sort of casual fans or the-The non-consumers.That's right.That's right.So Bob basically issues an all-hands-on-deck directive.He directs all the creative studios within Disney, Disney Animation, Disney Live Action, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel, to start producing content and gearing up specifically for the new first-party Disney streaming service coming in 2019.On top of all the existing slate of content that they were also working on.And then he gets a call from Rupert Murdoch.And Rupert says that he and Fox are obviously going through the same strategic reviews and exercises as Disney and every other media company.And Rupert has concluded that the best path forward for Fox is to combine with Disney and lend its scale, its content, and its efforts to Disney's first-party streaming service to compete with Netflix.Well, to combine some of its assets.Basically, Fox did an analysis and looked at everything that had a library value, you know, rewatchability.And they kind of looked at it and said, the highest and best use of a library over the coming decades is going to be on these streaming services.The deep catalog.Like, I fall asleep at night watching The Office.

你会错过所有那些休闲球迷，或者说——非消费者（non-consumers）。没错。没错。于是鲍勃基本上下了一道全员总动员令。他指示迪士尼旗下所有创意工作室——迪士尼动画、迪士尼真人电影、皮克斯、卢卡斯影业、漫威——开始为 2019 年上线的全新第一方迪士尼流媒体服务专门生产内容、备货，而且是在他们本来就在做的全部片单之上再加这些。然后他接到了鲁伯特·默多克的电话。鲁伯特说，他和福克斯显然也在做和迪士尼、和其他所有媒体公司一样的战略复盘。而鲁伯特的结论是：福克斯最好的前路，是与迪士尼合并，把自己的规模、内容和努力并入迪士尼的第一方流媒体服务，去和 Netflix 竞争。嗯，是把它的部分资产合并进来。基本上，福克斯做了一个分析，把所有具备片库价值（library value）、也就是可重看性的东西都看了一遍。他们看完后说：未来几十年里，一个片库的最高最优用途会是在这些流媒体服务上。深度片库。就像我，晚上是看着《办公室》入睡的。

[3:13:01] David Rosenthal

So I have Peacock because they have library content so I can watch The Office.Same thing with Arrested Development.Same thing with Seinfeld.They ran all the numbers and decided, we don't really want to be in the streaming game over here at Fox.Let's try to fetch a high value for people who do and who need that library content.But I think we'll keep everything that has all of its value on first run.So news, sports, they sort of went all in on linear TV instead of keeping the library which would require building out the streaming service.It's the opposite of Disney.Disney's keep things that have high rewatchability and monetize them over and over.Yep.Now, you said Rupert and Fox ran some analysis on their library vis-a-vis streaming.I suspect part of that analysis also led them to the conclusion that, hey, our library just isn't strong enough to be compelling as a streaming product.But, like, it's true.You know, it's got Avatar.It's great.It's got The Simpsons.Come on.How often are people rewatching Avatar?

所以我订了 Peacock，因为他们有片库内容，我能看《办公室》。《发展受阻》也一样，《宋飞正传》也一样。他们把所有数字跑了一遍，然后决定：我们福克斯这边其实不太想玩流媒体这场游戏。那不如把片库卖个高价，卖给那些想玩、也需要片库内容的人。但我想我们要留下所有价值都集中在首轮播出的东西。所以新闻、体育——他们等于是全押在线性电视（linear TV）上，而不是留着片库、逼自己去建流媒体服务。这和迪士尼正好相反：迪士尼是留下那些可重看性高的东西，然后一遍又一遍地变现。是的。不过你刚说鲁伯特和福克斯对自己的片库做了流媒体角度的分析——我怀疑那份分析也让他们得出一个结论：嘿，我们的片库其实不够强，撑不起一个有吸引力的流媒体产品。而这是真的。你知道，它有《阿凡达》，很棒。它有《辛普森一家》。拜托，人们能重看几次《阿凡达》？

[3:14:08] David Rosenthal

Exactly.Simpsons are rewatchable, maybe.Family Guy.Family Guy's rewatchable.Yep.Yep.The National Geographic channel.But, you know, it's a lot of live action film IP.We do have the FX network, which has Always Sunny and a bunch of great shows.Right.It's not zero, but it's not anywhere near enough to be compelling on its own.And its synergy value is actually a lot higher than the value is just to Fox.Because if you start to look at some of these things, X-Men, Deadpool, Wolverine, Fantastic Four, huh, those are actually worth a lot more to Disney than they are to us.Exactly.Bingo.So December 2017, they announced the deal.Disney will be acquiring all the entertainment and international assets of Fox in a $52 billion all-stock transaction.So not Fox News, not Fox Sports, not the Fox Broadcast Network, but the library and all the general entertainment assets.And that $52 billion was after a lot of back-and-forth negotiation.It was best and final.Everyone at Disney ran all the models they possibly could to see what is the very most we could pay to get the value that we need out of these assets.So the deal's done-ish.It just needs regulatory approval, which is going to take several months, as it always does.

正是。《辛普森一家》可重看，也许吧。《恶搞之家》。《恶搞之家》是可重看的。是的。是的。还有国家地理频道。但你知道，它大量是真人电影 IP。我们确实还有 FX 频道，上面有《费城永远阳光灿烂》和一堆好剧。对。所以不是零，但也远远不够独自撑起吸引力。而且它的协同价值其实比它对福克斯自身的价值高得多。因为你要是开始细看某些东西——X 战警、死侍、金刚狼、神奇四侠——嚯，这些对迪士尼来说，值的钱可比对我们多得多。正是。说中了。于是 2017 年 12 月，他们宣布了这笔交易：迪士尼将以 520 亿美元的全股票交易，收购福克斯的全部娱乐资产和国际资产。所以不包括福克斯新闻、不包括福克斯体育、不包括福克斯广播网，而是片库和所有综合娱乐资产。而那 520 亿美元是经过大量来回谈判后的「最终报价（best and final）」。迪士尼所有人把能跑的模型都跑了一遍，想看看为了拿到我们需要的价值，最多能付到多少。所以这笔交易算是「基本谈成」了，只差监管批准，而那照例要花好几个月。

[3:15:27] David Rosenthal

Yep.During the regulatory approval process, there's a different ruling that happens around AT&T's merger.That's right.That causes Comcast to go, huh, you know, we previously counted ourselves out for these assets because we didn't think it was going to pass regulatory approval.I bet it would have.Let's see if we can lob in a bid.Even though Disney and Fox say they have a done deal, let's just throw in a bid and see.Comcast once again.Disney ends up getting bid up to $71.3 billion.A full $19 billion more than they had originally signed the deal on.That's a free $19 billion for Fox shareholders because Comcast lobbed in the bid.Yep.Disney's total market cap at the time was around $170 billion.So this is like 40% of the value of the entire Walt Disney Company.Way more, way more than Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm all combined.Now, to be fair, so they do the deal.Disney is able to pay down a lot of that purchase price pretty quickly through divestitures of Fox's regional sports networks and then their stake in Sky, the British pay TV operator.Yeah, those numbers were $14 billion and $15 billion.So together, you can actually back it down $29 billion.The real price of what Disney paid and the assets they kept was about $44 billion.

是的。在监管审批过程中，围绕 AT&T 的并购出了另一个裁决。没错。这让康卡斯特（Comcast）想：嗯，我们之前把自己排除在这些资产之外，是因为我们觉得过不了监管这一关。我打赌其实是能过的。那我们看看能不能扔个报价进去。哪怕迪士尼和福克斯说交易已经谈定了，我们也扔个价试试。又是康卡斯特。迪士尼最后被抬价到 713 亿美元，比他们最初签约时高出整整 190 亿美元。因为康卡斯特扔了个报价，福克斯股东白得 190 亿美元。是的。迪士尼当时的总市值大约 1700 亿美元，所以这相当于整个华特迪士尼公司价值的 40%，远远超过皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业加起来的总和。当然，公平地说，交易做完后，迪士尼通过剥离福克斯的区域体育网络、以及它在英国付费电视运营商 Sky 的股份，很快还掉了很大一部分收购价。是啊，这两笔分别是 140 亿美元和 150 亿美元。所以合起来能把成本压下去 290 亿美元。迪士尼实际付出、并且留下了那些资产的真实价格大约是 440 亿美元。

[3:17:04] David Rosenthal

So that's sort of the hurdle to overcome in trying to make this acquisition payback.Yep.And they probably don't get anywhere near $44 billion worth of value out of the assets that they do get.As we talked about, the library assets for the streaming service, sure, they're nice to have, but they're not really going to drive that many signups or retentions for the service.Wolverine and Deadpool had a big box office win.Avatar now has lands in the parks.Yep.True.Yeah, it's not nothing.They did get a third of Hulu.Yep.As a part of this deal.So they already owned our third.This gave them a third.So then they had a controlling interest.Yep.Another big part of the strategic rationale for the deal and for the increased price was that Fox had a lot of India assets.That's right.Both content and distribution.And this is back to Bob's strategic pillar number three for the company.Great.We need to enter India.This is a great way to do it.Those assets end up not performing for Disney nearly as well as they thought they would.They end up merging them with Reliance in 2024 in a deal that values them at only a fraction of what they valued them in the Fox acquisition.Yeah.But the general philosophy of we're going to go buy a deep library and we're going to buy a third of a general streaming service with Hulu, not a specialized curated one with universes like Disney.

所以那就是要跨过的门槛：这笔收购要回本得赚回 440 亿美元。是的。而他们从留下的资产里，大概根本拿不到接近 440 亿美元的价值。就像我们说过的，用于流媒体服务的片库资产，是不错，但其实带不来多少新增注册或留存。金刚狼和死侍拿下了一次大票房，《阿凡达》现在也在乐园里有主题园区。是的，确实。是啊，不算什么都没有。他们还拿到了 Hulu 的三分之一。是的，作为这笔交易的一部分。他们本来已经有三分之一，这次又拿了三分之一，于是就有了控股权。是的。这笔交易战略理由的另一大块，也是加价的理由之一，是福克斯有大量印度资产。没错，内容和发行都有。这又回到鲍勃给公司定的第三条战略支柱。太好了，我们需要进入印度，这是个很好的方式。结果那些资产给迪士尼带来的表现，远不如他们预期。他们最终在 2024 年把它们和信实集团（Reliance）合并，交易估值只有当初福克斯收购里给它们估值的一个零头。是啊。但总体哲学是：我们要去买一个深度片库，我们要买下一个综合流媒体服务 Hulu 的三分之一——而不是像 Disney+ 那样专门化、精选化、带宇宙感的服务。

[3:18:33] David Rosenthal

It does kind of give them this kitchen sink in addition to their highly curated thing with Disney plus where you can get kind of scale as general entertainment platform without diluting the pristine Disney brand.As long as you can keep Disney plus really separate from Hulu in the mind of consumers.That's kind of the strategy.Yep.But certainly it's the worst of the four big acquisitions.Five if you include BAM tech.Yep.Either way, the deal closes in March 2019 right in time before Disney launches the long awaited Disney streaming service the very next month in April 2019 at an investor day that they hold to announce Disney plus.The vault is now open.I love this.It was great.The clarity of product vision of the original Disney plus is incredibly laudable.Totally.It was a very compelling product.All of Disney IP, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel, the Fox assets coming in.And then they announce the price.$6.99 a month for the initial price.Consumers go nuts.Nuts.They beat every early projection that they had to sign up for this thing.Wall Street loves it.The stock jumps 11% the next day.By the end of April 2019, the stock is up 20%.When the service finally launches in November, Disney gets 10 million signups within the first 24 hours.

这确实给了他们一个「厨房水槽（kitchen sink，什么都装）」式的东西，跟 Disney+ 那个高度精选的产品互补，让你能以综合娱乐平台的身份拿到规模，同时又不稀释迪士尼那个纯净的品牌——前提是你能在消费者心智里把 Disney+ 和 Hulu 分得足够开。这大致就是那套策略。是的。但它无疑是四笔大收购里最差的一笔。如果算上 BAMTech 就是五笔。是的。不管怎样，这笔交易在 2019 年 3 月完成，正好赶在迪士尼于次月、也就是 2019 年 4 月的一场投资者日上发布万众期待的 Disney+ 之前。金库现在打开了。我太喜欢这句了，当时特别棒。最初 Disney+ 的产品愿景之清晰，非常值得称道。完全同意，那是个非常有说服力的产品：迪士尼全部 IP、皮克斯、卢卡斯影业、漫威，加上正在并进来的福克斯资产。然后他们宣布了价格：初始价每月 6.99 美元。消费者疯了。疯了。注册量打爆了他们所有的早期预测。华尔街也爱它，第二天股价涨了 11%。到 2019 年 4 月底，股价涨了 20%。等到 11 月服务正式上线，迪士尼在头 24 小时就拿到 1000 万注册。

[3:20:10] David Rosenthal

26 million in the first quarter.And the setup for all this looks great.Here we are midway through 2019.Pixar and Disney animation are soaring.Lucasfilm is crushing it.They're two thirds of the way through the new Star Wars trilogy.Plus they've made Rogue One, which is an amazing, amazing movie.High art.Oh, so great.The Marvel run is just reaching its apex, its peak.I mean, unprecedented in Hollywood history.Avengers Endgame is about to come out and set new records all over the world.$2.8 billion in box office gross just from that film.Yep.But unfortunately, all is not quite as well as it seems.Under the hood, each of Disney's core IP pillars is actually not in a great place right now.I'd call them fully exploited.Well, that's part of it.There's a bunch of problems.So at Pixar and Disney animation, they're in the midst of a major leadership transition.John Lasseter has just been kicked out of the company and Ed Catmull has just retired.So they need new leadership at both of the marquee studios of Disney.Lucasfilm looks great, but it's on the cusp of a major crisis.Solo just bombed in theaters.And audiences don't know it yet, but episode nine is in trouble.Like, major trouble.Well, episode eight and nine did not have a cohesive vision between the two and had different directors.

第一个季度 2600 万。而这一切的铺垫看上去都很棒。此时是 2019 年年中：皮克斯和迪士尼动画正当红；卢卡斯影业势头很猛，新的《星球大战》三部曲已经拍到三分之二，还做了《侠盗一号》，一部特别特别棒的电影。是高级艺术品。噢，太棒了。漫威的连胜正达到顶点，好莱坞史上前所未有。《复仇者联盟：终局之战》即将上映，并将在全球刷新纪录，光这一部就有 28 亿美元的全球票房。是的。但不幸的是，一切并不像看上去那么好。在引擎盖底下，迪士尼每一根核心 IP 支柱其实都不在好状态。我会说它们是被「充分开采」了。那是一部分原因，问题还有一堆。皮克斯和迪士尼动画正处在重大的领导层更替中：约翰·拉塞特刚被赶出公司，艾德·卡特姆刚刚退休。所以迪士尼这两家旗舰工作室都需要新的领导者。卢卡斯影业看起来风光，但正处在一场重大危机的边缘：《游侠索罗》刚在影院扑街，而观众还不知道——第九部有麻烦了，是大麻烦。其实是第八部和第九部之间没有统一的愿景，导演也不是同一个人。

[3:21:54] David Rosenthal

Yes.So episode eight went in this interesting but somewhat not Star Wars-y direction.And then episode nine had to, like, smear Star Wars Vaseline all over the top of it so that you would remember that it was still Star Wars.So much so that we got Palpatine back from the dead again and, like, 10,000 Star Destroyers rising up from a planet.It was bad.A little foresight and vision would have been nice.Yeah.Yeah.But nobody knows this yet because the film doesn't come out until December of that year.Episode eight was so different than the films around it.It's like no one was talking to each other.And there was no plan for episode nine.That was the problem.And then Marvel, I mean, Marvel's on this absolute high with Avengers Endgame.But the problem is it's literally an endgame.Like, the story ends.Right as Disney is now saying, oh, hey, Marvel, we need you to start pumping out even more content for the streaming service.And it ends in this beautiful cinematic fashion.Like, it tied 15 different strings all together.Marvel actually did have a tremendous amount of foresight.It was highly coordinated.I think I cried in that last scene where they're kind of showing each character as they're sort of reflecting back on the whole thing and the way they handled the snap.

是的。所以第八部走了一个挺有意思、但有点不像《星球大战》的方向。然后第九部就得在上面糊满「星战凡士林」，好让你记起这仍然是《星球大战》。以至于我们又看到帕尔帕廷从死里复活，还有一万艘歼星舰从一颗行星上升起。太糟了。要是当初有一点点前瞻和整体构想就好了。是啊。是啊。但那时还没人知道，因为影片要到那年 12 月才上映。第八部和它前后的片子差别太大了，感觉像是没人互相沟通过。而且第九部根本没有计划，那才是问题所在。然后是漫威。漫威正处在《终局之战》的绝对高点上。可问题是，它字面意义上就是「终局」——故事结束了。而恰恰在这个时候迪士尼开始说：噢，嘿漫威，我们需要你为流媒体服务开始产出更多内容。而它是以一种极美的电影方式收尾的，把 15 条不同的线全串到了一起。漫威其实有极强的前瞻性，协调得非常高明。最后那一场——他们把每个角色一一带过、回望整个历程、以及处理「响指」那一段——我想我当时哭了。

[3:23:10] Ben Gilbert

The character development of the villain with Thanos, like, it's a very relatable villain.It's a villain that is, like, trying to do the right thing.It's the best kind of villain.And really elegant if the endgame is the endgame.Right.Really inelegant if you're about to follow it up by increasing production 50% in the studio.Yes.Yeah, which they do.And if you do flash forward, the post-2021 movie slate might actually be negative on a theatrical return.If you look at the Marvels, Ant-Man, Quantumania, Eternals.This is even ignoring the Disney Plus shows, some of which were very cool, Loki and WandaVision.But the existence of them, by trying to be bigger and broader and more expansive even than the movies, make the original universe feel unimportant.Yeah.Like, my beef with Loki is who cares about Thanos when he's killing people in just one strand of an infinite multiverse.And, like, all you kind of should care about is what Loki's doing versus that pathetic little thing called the MCU.So that, you know, like, I just spent a decade of my life investing in that, and now you're telling me it didn't even matter.Yeah.So there's this big issue that it's kind of supposed to be over.And both creatively and commercially, the stuff that comes after, people don't want it, whether it's on streaming or whether it's in theaters.

灭霸这个反派的人物塑造，是一个非常有共情基础的反派，是那种试图做正确的事的反派，那是最好的一类反派。而且如果终局就是终局，那真的非常优雅。对。可如果你接下来要把工作室的产量提高 50%，那就非常不优雅了。是的。而他们确实这么做了。往后快进看，2021 年之后的电影片单在院线回报上可能其实是负的：《惊奇队长 2》《蚁人 3：量子狂潮》《永恒族》。这还没算 Disney+ 上那些剧集，其中一些确实很酷，比如《洛基》和《旺达幻视》。但它们的存在——通过试图比电影更大、更广、更扩张——反而让原来的宇宙显得不重要了。是啊。我对《洛基》的意见是：当灭霸只是在无限多元宇宙的一条支线里杀人时，谁还在乎灭霸？而且你会觉得，你该在意的只是洛基在做什么，相比之下那个叫 MCU 的小可怜算什么。所以你知道，我等于花了人生十年投资在那上面，现在你告诉我那根本无所谓。是啊。所以有个大问题：它本来就该结束了。而无论从创作还是商业上看，后面出来的东西人们都不想要，不管是在流媒体上还是在影院里。

[3:24:35] David Rosenthal

Other than the second Black Panther, which was amazing.That was great.That was great.Yeah.But all of this and everything you're saying highlights the strategic tradeoff that Disney made in pursuing the streaming strategy to go toe-to-toe with Netflix.Operating a tier one direct-to-consumer streaming business is yet another wholly and completely different business model than either the core Disney flywheel or the ESPN affiliate fee model.Yep.If you're going to try and operate a tier one streaming service, a service that is going to reach the maximum number of subscribers, not a niche service, but a Netflix-type competitor, your number one job is to retain subscribers that have signed up.You've got to feed the beast.You need to feed the beast.You've got to give those existing subscribers content or they're going to churn.Exactly.Exactly.So I want to quote Ben Gilbert here.Oh, God.When?

除了第二部《黑豹》，那部很棒。那部很棒。那部很棒。是啊。但所有这些、以及你说的一切，都凸显出迪士尼在推进流媒体战略、要和 Netflix 正面硬碰时所做的战略取舍。运营一个一线的直面消费者流媒体业务，又是一个和迪士尼核心飞轮、和 ESPN 附属费模式都完全不同的商业模式。是的。如果你要运营一个一线流媒体服务，一个要触达最大订户数的服务——不是小众服务，而是 Netflix 那种量级的竞品——你的头号工作就是留住已经注册的订户。你必须不停喂这头野兽。你得喂饱这头野兽。你必须持续给已有订户内容，否则他们就会流失。正是。正是。所以我想在这里引用一下本·吉尔伯特的话。噢，天哪。什么时候说的？

[3:25:42] David Rosenthal

From the end of Acquired's 2019 Disney Plus episode, in which we were incredibly excited about Disney Plus.I mean, it was so exciting back then.But you did say one thing at the end of the episode.You said, quote,One reason to doubt it, it being Disney Plus, is I think Disney may be underestimating just how much content people need to stay satiated.It's a beautiful and amazing thing to have access to the entire back catalog of all these really storied franchises.But am I going to pay $7 a month to keep an option available to go watch those things?

出自 Acquired 2019 年那期 Disney+ 节目的结尾，当时我们对 Disney+ 兴奋得不得了。我是说，那会儿是真的令人兴奋。但你在那期结尾说了一件事。你说，引用原话：怀疑它——也就是 Disney+——的一个理由是，我觉得迪士尼可能低估了人们要被喂饱到底需要多少内容。能拿到所有这些传奇系列的完整片库当然是件美好而了不起的事。但我会为了保留「随时去看那些东西」的这个选项，每月付 7 美元吗？

[3:26:16] Ben Gilbert

No.If I ever want to rewatch a Star Wars movie, I'll just reactivate my subscription at a given time.They really do need to aggressively turn on a fire hose of content here.Oh, man.You summed it up.You summed it up.This is the problem.That whole strategy of a fire hose of content is completely orthogonal to the flywheel strategy of only the best content very infrequently.And that is what Disney did.The best content infrequently with a theatrical release, a cultural moment around it, and then be quiet for a while.And harvest the fruits of that one movie, but be quiet for a while.And streaming is the exact freaking opposite.It is every time I open that, there better be something new and fresh for me to consume.And I got to wonder how much the Disney folks knew that when they made this decision to push all their chips in and accelerate going to streaming in a direct consumer way.The biggest issue really is that Disney had something to lose.They had two things to lose.They had an existing content library that was highly differentiated.And when you bolt things onto a universe of a differentiated library, it makes the original content less valuable.Yep.I remember watching the Obi-Wan TV show on Disney Plus and being like, oh, man, that kind of shatters how I think about Obi-Wan.

不会。如果我什么时候想重看一部《星球大战》，我到那时再把订阅重新激活就行了。他们真的需要在这里非常激进地打开一条内容的消防水管。噢，天哪。你一句话就总结了。你总结到位了。这就是问题所在。而「消防水管式的内容」这整套策略，和「只做最好的内容、但非常低频」的飞轮策略是完全正交的。而后者才是迪士尼一直做的事：最好的内容、低频次、配一次院线上映、围绕它形成一个文化时刻，然后安静一段时间——收割那一部电影的果实，但要安静一段时间。而流媒体是完全相反的东西：每次我打开它，里面最好有新鲜的东西给我消费。我很好奇迪士尼那些人在决定把全部筹码推进去、加速转向直面消费者流媒体的时候，对这一点到底知道多少。真正最大的问题是，迪士尼是有东西可输的。他们有两样东西可输。他们有一个高度差异化的既有内容片库。而当你把新东西硬焊到一个差异化片库的宇宙上时，会让原来的内容变得没那么值钱。是的。我记得我在 Disney+ 上看《欧比旺》剧集时就想：噢，天，这有点打碎了我心里对欧比旺的想象。

[3:27:56] David Rosenthal

Yeah, it's not as cool as I thought it was.Yeah.Because you have something to lose, you actually risk destroying the stuff you had that's great by sort of corrupting it.And destroying the competitive advantage that you have in the marketplace.This is such a good point.In a top-tier, high-quality content stories and characters world, every time you make a sequel, you're taking a big risk.Totally.And this is the risk.This is why Disney didn't make sequels prior to the 90s.Yep.Now, Pixar proved to them that you can make sequels and they can be great.And you can do it well.But you need to put that same amount of care and effort and time into it.Yeah, Pixar does one every seven years.Yep.You can't increase the production line.The second thing is that the Disney brand itself means something.Yes.The Netflix brand doesn't mean anything to anyone.The Netflix brand is the button that I push on my TV when I want to watch stuff.And sometimes it's great stuff.But if it's not great stuff, whatever.It whizzes by.I don't think one way or another about Netflix.The Disney brand has something to lose.And so if you have a bunch of bombs in a row, I think less of the Disney brand, which again,takes away your compounding competitive advantage by being Disney.

是啊，没我以为的那么酷了。对。正因为你有东西可输，你其实是在冒着「把自己原本很棒的东西污染掉」的风险，也在摧毁你在市场上的竞争优势。这个点特别好。在一个顶级高质量内容、故事和角色的世界里，你每做一部续集，都是在冒一次大险。完全同意。而这就是那个风险。这也是迪士尼在 90 年代之前不做续集的原因。是的。当然，皮克斯向他们证明了续集是可以做的，而且可以很棒，可以做得很好。但你必须投入同等的用心、努力和时间。是啊，皮克斯是每七年做一部。是的。你不可能把这条生产线加速。第二件事是，迪士尼这个品牌本身是有含义的。是的。而 Netflix 这个品牌对任何人都没有含义。Netflix 品牌就是我想看东西时在电视上按的那个按钮。有时候里面有好东西，如果不是好东西，那也无所谓，它就一晃而过。我对 Netflix 没有任何情感判断。而迪士尼品牌是有东西可输的。所以如果一连串片子都扑街，我对迪士尼品牌的看法就会打折扣，而这又会削掉你「因为是迪士尼」而享有的那份复利式竞争优势。

[3:29:06] David Rosenthal

Whereas if you release a bunch of great things in a row, even if they're more spaced out overtime and you're really judicious with it, which is not congruent with the streaming operatingmodel, then it can really add to the brand bucket of the Disney brand.So Disney sort of has this compounding asset that is at risk when going head to head withNetflix.Yep.Yep.Yep.So that's all the strategic trade-offs on the Disney film and TV side.Then there's the whole cable ESPN side of the house.Yes.Like what is going on there in this 2018, 19 period?

反过来，如果你连着推出一堆好东西，哪怕它们在时间上更分散、你非常克制审慎——而这跟流媒体的运营模式并不相容——那它真的能不断往迪士尼这个品牌的水桶里加水。所以迪士尼有一项会复利的资产，而这项资产在和 Netflix 正面硬刚时是被置于风险之中的。是的。是的。是的。好，这就是迪士尼影视这一侧全部的战略取舍。那么还有有线电视和 ESPN 那一侧呢。是的。在 2018、19 这段时间，那边到底在发生什么？

[3:29:40] Ben Gilbert

Well, as you can imagine, cable subscriptions are only getting canceled at a faster and fasterrate, which can actually still be fine.You can actually still grow your revenue for a while if you're in the high leverage positionthat ESPN is because you can just raise your prices faster than...Cancellations are happening.Exactly.But later on, around 2023, even this would come to a head.The declines were happening too rapidly and affiliate fee increases could no longer outpacesubscriber losses and revenue then would start to decline 23 into 24.So basically cable and ESPN enter the end game to use an Avengers term.Yes.Yes.So that's on ESPN's revenue side.On the cost side, there's another big problem.Sure, people are churning off cable, but I don't know, that's manageable as long as yourcosts stay fixed.But the sports leagues have now realized that they can extract much more value, that it turnsout that in this whole value chain of watching a sports game, way more of the profits shouldbe going to the sports league than to the network that's sort of sitting in the middle.Yep.And the NFL, the NBA, I think they just didn't fully extract everything that they could havefor decades.That probably is true, but they were hamstrung because there really weren't any other bidders

嗯，你能想到，有线订阅被取消的速度越来越快。而这其实还可能没事：如果你处在 ESPN 那样的高议价地位，你其实还能让收入增长一阵子，因为你可以把涨价的速度提得比——比退订发生的速度更快。正是。但到了后来，大约 2023 年，这件事也走到了临界点：下滑太快，附属费的涨价再也追不上订户流失，于是收入从 2023 年到 2024 年开始下降。所以基本上，有线电视和 ESPN 进入了「终局」，借用一下《复仇者联盟》的词。是的。是的。这是 ESPN 收入侧的情况。在成本侧还有另一个大问题。没错，人们在退订有线，但只要你的成本保持固定，这还算可控。可现在体育联盟意识到，他们能榨取的价值要多得多；事实证明，在「看一场体育比赛」的整条价值链里，本该有更大比例的利润归体育联盟，而不是归中间那个电视网。是的。NFL、NBA，我想它们几十年里其实并没有把能拿的都拿走。这多半是真的，但它们当时也是被绑住手脚的，因为对这么多赛事版权来说，根本没有别的出价方——

[3:31:06] David Rosenthal

except ESPN for so much of these rights.Because ESPN had this whole scale economies power where because they were getting the mostcash and affiliate fees, they could pay the biggest prices for sports rights and block everybodyelse out.Except for the like really, really big stuff that the broadcast networks would come aftertoo.Now, other bidders show up in the form of the tech companies.And the tech companies not only have these incredibly deep pockets, at least until all of them starteddestroying all their free cash flow doing AI CapEx.Building data centers.Yes.But they have more ways to monetize the consumer.So they can afford to bid more for the same consumer than any ESPN or that a TV network couldbecause Amazon can get you as a prime subscriber.This is Amazon's NFL deal right here.Yes.Yeah.So any student of economics will kind of see the writing on the wall here.The price is set by the highest bidder.And if somebody has a business model that structurally can out monetize what you can,then they're going to win and the price is going to be set by them.Yep.This is why ESPN won for many years.And this is why the tech companies are winning now.The other thing driving the prices up is as you get a more and more abundance of content

——除了 ESPN。因为 ESPN 有一整套规模经济带来的强势地位：因为拿到最多的现金和附属费，它可以为体育版权出最高的价钱，把其他所有人挡在门外。除了那些真的非常大的赛事，广播网也会来抢。而现在，新的出价方以科技公司的形式出现了。这些科技公司不但口袋深得吓人——至少在它们全都开始用 AI 资本开支（capex）把自由现金流烧光之前是这样。建数据中心。是的。而且它们变现消费者的路径更多。所以它们能为同一个消费者出比 ESPN 或任何电视网更高的价，因为亚马逊可以把你变成 Prime 订户。这就是亚马逊的 NFL 那笔交易。是的。对。所以任何学过经济学的人都能看出这里的结局：价格由出价最高者决定。如果某人的商业模式在结构上能比你更好地变现同一个用户，那他们就会赢，价格也将由他们来定。是的。这就是 ESPN 曾经赢了很多年的原因，也是科技公司现在正在赢的原因。另一个把价格推高的因素是：随着内容和「在线化」越来越泛滥——

[3:32:25] Ben Gilbert

online and online-ness, there is an increasing return to shared cultural experiences happeninglive in a way that made sports way more important than they ever have been before.The prices people were paying for World Cup final tickets and Taylor Swift tour ticketsand Super Bowl tickets, that sort of manifests in rights deals too.Right.There's a trickle down effect.Exactly.Exactly.So in 2006, just look at the Monday Night Football package that ESPN buys.06, it was $1.1 billion.2011, it was at $1.9 billion a year.And by 2021, it went up to $2.7 billion a year now.And the viewership for Monday Night Football is actually going up, even amidst all this cordcutting.Wow.It turns out that the NFL is the thing that we all want to watch.Yep.So the structural force, though, that's working against ESPN here is that ESPN used to be theonly place that you could go to watch highlights and replays.And now you can get a lot of that on social media.So in the long run, if the main reason to subscribe to any given channel ends up being actually aboutthe game content itself and not differentiated by stuff around the game, then the excess profitsin the long term will just be captured by the rights holders like the NFL and the NBA.

——线上内容越丰富，「共享的、现场发生的文化体验」的回报就越高，这让体育比过去任何时候都重要得多。人们为世界杯决赛门票、泰勒·斯威夫特巡演门票、超级碗门票付的价钱，也会在版权合约上体现出来。对，有涓滴效应。正是。正是。所以你看 ESPN 买下的「周一橄榄球之夜（Monday Night Football）」这个包：2006 年是 11 亿美元；2011 年是每年 19 亿美元；到 2021 年，涨到每年 27 亿美元。而且「周一橄榄球之夜」的收视其实还在上升，哪怕在剪线潮之中。哇。事实证明，NFL 就是我们所有人都想看的东西。是的。不过在这里对 ESPN 不利的结构性力量是：ESPN 过去是你唯一能去看集锦和回放的地方，而现在这些东西你在社交媒体上就能看到一大堆。所以长期看，如果订阅某个频道的主要理由最终变成比赛内容本身、而不是比赛周边的差异化东西，那么长期的超额利润就会被 NFL、NBA 这些版权持有方全部拿走。

[3:33:48] Ben Gilbert

Yep.And to be clear, we've probably undersold ESPN's creativity and innovation in this episode.I mean, highlights, SportsCenter, everything they did was absolutely incredible.Even more recently, Pat McAfee show or, my God, Manningcast.I cannot wait for fall to watch Manningcast and Monday Night Football.It is the thing I look forward to from, I don't know, July 15th onward.They really are the best of the best at high quality content production around sports.However, this is not the same as Disney.Sports have a very limited shelf life.You are not going back and watching Manningcast episodes from last season.The flywheel does not apply here.So you can't build long-term value around that original content.You know, sure, you can with like 30 for 30 and stuff like that, but that's so small and niche at ESPN.The vast majority of the production that ESPN is making has very, very limited shelf life.That's so interesting because the content has very limited shelf life, but they've locked up these incredibly predictable revenue streams.Yeah, there's ad sales.They have to figure out how they're going to do in the ad sales, but that's plus or minus a few percent.They know a few years from now how much free cash flow they're going to get from ESPN in a way that they have no idea from their movie slate.

是的。而且说清楚一点，我们这期节目大概低估了 ESPN 的创造力和创新。我是说，集锦、《体育中心》，他们做的每一样东西都绝对了不起。就算是最近的《帕特·麦卡菲秀》，或者天哪，「曼宁解说（Manningcast）」。我等秋天等不及了，就为了看曼宁解说和周一橄榄球之夜。那是我从，我不知道，7 月 15 日往后就开始盼的东西。他们在体育相关的高质量内容制作上真的是顶尖中的顶尖。然而，这和迪士尼不一样。体育的货架寿命非常短。你不会回头去看上赛季的曼宁解说。飞轮在这里不适用。所以你没法围绕这些原创内容建立长期价值。当然，像《30 for 30》那样的东西是可以的，但在 ESPN 里那太小、太小众了。ESPN 生产的绝大多数内容，货架寿命都非常非常短。这点特别有意思：内容的货架寿命极短，但他们锁定了这些极其可预测的收入流。是啊，还有广告销售。他们得琢磨广告销售会怎么样，但那也就是正负几个百分点的事。他们能知道几年后自己从 ESPN 能拿到多少自由现金流，而这在他们的电影片单上是完全不可能知道的。

[3:35:15] Ben Gilbert

It has been this stabilizing force.Oh, yeah.The beauty that we've talked about on this episode that Iger ended up realizing of having these two businesses together was take that stable cash flow and use it to invest in the Disney flywheel.Right.I'm just making the point that it's not like as ESPN has come under this pressure that they could start building their own flywheel here.Right.It's like, no, no, this is a declining asset.Right, right, right, right.All right.So take us forward.How does Disney Plus go?

它一直是那个稳定器。噢，是的。我们这期讲过的那个美妙之处——艾格最终领悟到的、把这两块业务放在一起的价值——就是拿那份稳定的现金流去投资迪士尼飞轮。对。我只是想说明一点：并不是说随着 ESPN 承受压力，它们就能在这里另起炉灶建自己的飞轮。对。而是：不，这是一项正在衰退的资产。对对对对。好。那你带我们往下走吧。Disney+ 后来怎么样了？

[3:35:41] David Rosenthal

How does ESPN Plus go?So for better or for worse, I think Disney either doesn't see or doesn't have to deal with the fact that they have these pretty major strategic issues on both sides of the house with their streaming strategy.Because the minute after they launch it, the entire world gets turned upside down.Yep.Disney Plus launches in November 2019.It's unbelievable that was just sitting there right on app stores and in TVs the moment COVID hit.Yeah.February 2020, Bob Iger retires as CEO.This COVID thing is starting to happen.He says, hey, I'm going to remain as executive chairman for a little while to just help stabilize the transition, especially, you know, in the parks here.The couple of weeks before we reopen everything here.Oh, man.And Bob Chapek, of course, who was head of the parks division, has come in as the new CEO.March 2020 comes and everybody realizes this COVID thing isn't a couple week kind of thing here.Disney's market cap drops 40% in March of 2020 because the parks business goes to zero.Actually zero.Nobody's there.I mean, Disney's net income that year was actually negative.Yeah.Yeah.And then the roller coaster goes up.Ben, as you said, Disney Plus is just sitting there.

ESPN+ 后来怎么样了？不管是好是坏，我觉得迪士尼要么没看见、要么根本不必去面对一个事实：他们的流媒体战略在公司两侧都存在相当重大的战略问题。因为就在他们上线之后的下一分钟，整个世界天翻地覆了。是的。Disney+ 在 2019 年 11 月上线。它就那样静静躺在应用商店和电视里，等到 COVID 来袭的那一刻，这太不可思议了。是啊。2020 年 2 月，鲍勃·艾格卸任 CEO。这个 COVID 的事情开始冒头了。他说：嘿，我会再留任一段时间的执行董事长，帮着把过渡稳住，尤其是乐园这块——就是我们全面重新开放前的那几周。噢，天哪。而当然，原本主管乐园部门的鲍勃·查佩克（Bob Chapek）作为新任 CEO 上任了。2020 年 3 月到来，所有人都意识到这个 COVID 不是几周就能过去的事。2020 年 3 月，迪士尼市值跌了 40%，因为乐园业务归零了。是真的归零，一个人都没有。我是说，迪士尼那年的净利润其实是负的。是啊。是啊。然后过山车又往上冲。本，就像你说的，Disney+ 就在那儿摆着。

[3:37:09] David Rosenthal

Everybody's at home now.When they announced Disney Plus originally, Disney said that their goal was to get 60 to 90 million subscribers within five years.All of a sudden COVID happens.Everybody's sitting at home.Disney gets 100 million subscribers.Disney gets 100 million subscribers within 16 months.March of 2021.They announced they've passed 100 million subscribers.Blown way past even their most aggressive projections.The stock goes to the moon.Well, that's the other thing.It was zero interest rates.So any good sign the market's amplitude is higher than normal.Disney's market cap in March of 2021 on this announcement hits $360 billion here at its peak.They all look like geniuses.And for the moment, they were.All these strategic questions we've talked about are non-issues.And worth noting, it hit that peak right around January 1st of 21.And by October of 21, it had begun its fall right back down to where it started.Yep.So that December of 2021, Bob Iger fully retires.As we head into the next year, there start to be some cracks in the Disney Plus strategy.Subscriber numbers are still good, but churn is high.And they're spending a lot of money acquiring and reacquiring subscribers.This is the treadmill of a Netflix competitor streaming service.

现在所有人都待在家里。当初宣布 Disney+ 时，迪士尼说他们的目标是五年内拿到 6000 万到 9000 万订户。突然 COVID 来了，所有人闷在家里。迪士尼拿到了 1 亿订户。迪士尼在 16 个月内就拿到了 1 亿订户。2021 年 3 月，他们宣布突破 1 亿订户，把自己最激进的预测都远远甩在身后。股价一飞冲天。这也是另一个因素：当时是零利率环境，所以任何好消息，市场的振幅都比平常更大。2021 年 3 月这条公告发布时，迪士尼市值触及 3600 亿美元的峰值。他们看上去个个都是天才。而在那一刻，他们确实是。我们讲过的所有战略问题在那时都不是问题。值得一提的是，峰值大约出现在 2021 年 1 月 1 日前后，而到 2021 年 10 月，它已经开始一路跌回起点。是的。所以 2021 年 12 月，鲍勃·艾格彻底退休。进入次年，Disney+ 战略开始出现裂缝。订户数字仍然不错，但流失率（churn）很高，而且他们在获取和再获取订户上花了很多钱。这就是当一个 Netflix 竞品流媒体服务的跑步机。

[3:38:49] Ben Gilbert

You gotta not only provide the content to people every month, but you gotta tell them about it.I mean, on the ESPN side, ESPN didn't do the marketing to consumers.That was the cable company's job.They got the subscribers.They manage the churn.On the Disney side...Yeah, you gotta advertise a new movie.Sure, sure.You spend tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars advertising the new film.But there is no concept of churn.Right.You're not trying to keep everybody.Right.So the interesting thing, they're all in on this Disney Plus and Hulu, this streaming strategy.And the question is, is there actually a pile of gold worth chasing in streaming?

你不仅每个月都得给人提供内容，你还得告诉他们有这些内容。我是说，在 ESPN 那边，ESPN 不做面向消费者的营销，那是有线电视公司的活儿。他们去拿订户，他们管流失。而在迪士尼这边……对，你得给新电影打广告。当然，当然。你会花几千万甚至上亿美元给新片做宣发。但那里面没有「流失」这个概念。对。你并不是在试图留住每一个人。对。所以有意思的是，他们全押在 Disney+ 和 Hulu 这套流媒体战略上。问题是：流媒体里到底有没有一堆值得追的金子？

[3:39:27] Ben Gilbert

It's structurally a worse business, as you were just mentioning, than the old cable bundle where you just got checks.Consumers can cancel easily.They do so every few months.It's expensive to make the amount of content you need to make, especially now with the quality that people expect out of streaming content.They expect like cinema-like TV shows.Yeah.Consumers don't want to have a zillion services.You have to build your own technology and keep the user experience great as platforms add new features and change the UI and everything, which is very expensive to hire and pay.Good engineers, good designers, good product people.You have to acquire your own customers directly.Expensive.You have to retain your own customers directly.Expensive.When they churn, you have to reacquire them.That's right.And critically, you don't get a second exploitation window the way that a limited edition home video re-release has.Theatrical re-releases followed by home video windows.That, oh, that was the business to be in.And sitting here grumbling about it and wishing that that could come back is not the answer.But Disney is sort of seeing the reality in 23, 24 that, oh, my God, streaming wasn't just like invest some money to build it out one time and then we've got this great asset.

就像你刚说的，从结构上讲，它是一门比过去那种「只管收支票」的有线电视捆绑包更差的生意。消费者可以轻易取消，而且他们每隔几个月就取消一次。做出你需要的那个体量的内容很贵，尤其是现在人们对流媒体内容的质量要求很高，他们期待电影级别的剧集。是的。消费者不想要一大堆服务。你必须自建技术，还要在平台不断增加新功能、改 UI 的过程中保持用户体验良好，而这需要雇佣和支付好的工程师、好的设计师、好的产品人，非常贵。你必须自己直接获取用户，贵。你必须自己直接留住用户，贵。他们流失了你还得再把他们拉回来。没错。而关键在于，你没有第二个开发窗口——不像限量版家庭录像再发行那样，院线重映之后再跟一轮家庭录像窗口。噢，那才是该做的生意。而坐在这儿抱怨、盼着它能回来，并不是答案。但迪士尼在 2023、2024 年逐渐看清了现实：噢，天哪，流媒体不是「投点钱一次性建好，然后我们就拥有一项好资产」。

[3:40:44] David Rosenthal

It's this constant expensive nurturing thing that we haven't had to deal with before.Yep.So heading into 2022, Bob Chapek does a reorg, basically reorging the entire company around the streaming strategy.Consolidates all the studios altogether into one reporting segment, Disney Media, I think, DMED.Meanwhile, losses at Disney Plus are just piling up as they're spending all of this money in production and customer acquisition costs and churn management and technology development.It culminates in November 2022 in Disney's fiscal Q4 earnings call when investors start asking a lot of questions about these losses at Disney Plus and Bob Chapek and the company's strategy for addressing them.And it does not go well.Well, and there's all these other self-inflicted wounds.I mean, all over the company, they announced they're moving a bunch of Imagineers to Florida and then they cancel that expansion even after a bunch of them like already bought houses.Then there's the whole spat between Chapek and the governor of Florida.Oh, yes.Then they designed, built, opened and operated a Star Wars themed hotel at Disney World that I was very excited to go to.I mean, it's super expensive, but I really would have paid it.

它是一件需要不断花钱照料、我们过去从未打过交道的事。是的。所以进入 2022 年，鲍勃·查佩克做了一次重组，基本上把整个公司围绕流媒体战略重新组织。他把所有工作室合并进一个报告分部，我记得叫「迪士尼媒体（Disney Media，DMED）」。与此同时，Disney+ 的亏损不断堆积，因为他们把钱全砸在内容制作、获客成本、流失管理和技术开发上。这一切在 2022 年 11 月迪士尼财年第四季度财报电话会上到达顶点：投资者开始就 Disney+ 的这些亏损、以及鲍勃·查佩克和公司应对这些亏损的战略，提出大量问题。而这场会开得很不顺。而且公司里到处还有别的自伤。我是说，他们宣布要把一大批幻想工程师迁到佛罗里达，然后又取消了那次扩张——那时候好些人房子都已经买了。然后还有查佩克和佛罗里达州长之间那场争执。噢，对。然后他们还设计、建造、开业并运营了一家迪士尼世界的《星球大战》主题酒店，我当时特别想去。我是说它超级贵，但我真的愿意掏这个钱。

[3:42:07] David Rosenthal

Yeah.And then they promptly closed it.It felt like a company in complete disarray, even streaming challenges and losses aside.After the earnings call, the board meets and fires Bob Chapek as CEO of Disney two and a bit years into his tenure.And Bob Iger returns out of retirement to come be CEO again and stabilize the ship.Yeah.You and I have been kind of going around and around back and forth.Why did Bob come back?

是啊。然后他们迅速把它关了。就算把流媒体的挑战和亏损放在一边，那感觉也像是一家完全乱了阵脚的公司。财报电话会之后，董事会开会，解雇了上任两年多一点的迪士尼 CEO 鲍勃·查佩克。而鲍勃·艾格从退休状态回归，重新出任 CEO，稳住这条船。是的。你和我在这个问题上来回琢磨了很久：鲍勃为什么要回来？

[3:42:40] Ben Gilbert

Why did Bob need to come back?What does it mean that Bob came back?Ultimately, I kind of think they just chose the wrong guy in Bob Chapek.And I think Iger's mistake in recommending Bob Chapek for the job was thinking that the company was about to enter a peacetime.Yeah.A time where it needed like a caretaker and it needed the exact opposite.Like, oh, yeah, all the pieces are in place.Disney Plus, it's doing great.But they weren't.What Disney Plus ended up being is so different than the original thing they conceived of Disney Plus as.It's a super different business, different business model.And I think all the downstream effects of the Disney Plus strategy, it wasn't just like, great, execute the strategy now.It's like we're still learning a lot in real time.So it's almost like the person that set that in motion kind of needed to see it through.And it was by no means just a keep your hand on the wheel and make sure the company is cared for time.Yep.And then things got crazier.2023 was the year of the Hollywood strikes.Yeah.And then there's another proxy shareholder fight, this time with Ike Perlmutter, who was the previous owner and chairman of Marvel.And his friend and activist investor Nelson Peltz, they launched a public proxy fight against Disney.

鲍勃为什么必须回来？鲍勃回来意味着什么？说到底，我觉得他们只是在鲍勃·查佩克身上选错了人。而艾格在推荐鲍勃·查佩克接任时犯的错误，是以为公司即将进入一个「和平年代」。是啊。一个只需要看守人（caretaker）的时期，而实际上需要的恰恰相反。就像：噢对，所有零件都到位了，Disney+ 一片大好。但事实并非如此。Disney+ 最终成为的样子，和他们最初构想的 Disney+ 差别太大了。它是一门完全不同的生意、完全不同的商业模式。而我认为 Disney+ 战略的所有下游影响，都不是「太好了，现在照着战略执行就行」。而是我们仍在实时地学很多东西。所以几乎可以说，把这件事启动的人，得亲自把它带到底。这绝不是一个「手扶方向盘、照看好公司」的时期。是的。而后来事情变得更疯狂。2023 年是好莱坞大罢工之年。是啊。然后又来了一场股东委托书之争，这次是和艾克·珀尔马特（Ike Perlmutter）——漫威的前所有者兼董事长。他和他的朋友、激进投资者纳尔逊·佩尔茨（Nelson Peltz）一起，对迪士尼发起了公开的委托书争夺战。

[3:44:01] Ben Gilbert

Ultimately, it doesn't go anywhere, but it's a major distraction that costs a lot of time and money.And then there's this big question of what to do with the declining asset of ESPN.It's so funny.I'm just sitting over here chuckling, this declining asset of ESPN.Yeah, it's a declining asset that does $3 billion a year now in operating income.Right, right.I mean, this is like, this is still this cash gusher.I'll take that declining asset.Thank you very much.Right.And when you say declining, I mean, it might be more fair to call it flat.The cable side is declining, but the thesis is maybe they can, using the ESPN streaming service.I don't know that Disney would acknowledge that it is a declining asset.Which actually sort of explains Wall Street agitation to spin it out.Oh, it's not any good in Disney anymore.I would like that, please.Right.In response to that, in October of 2023, they do separate ESPN out into its own business segment for the first time in Disney's financial reporting.So there's now a sports business segment, which is ESPN.Basically, that's creating optionality to spin it out.If that's the thinking, then I want them to make a segment for general streaming entertainment.

最终它没成什么气候，但这是一次消耗大量时间和金钱的重大干扰。然后还有一个大问题：ESPN 这项衰退中的资产该怎么办。太逗了。我坐在这儿一直在偷笑：「ESPN 这项衰退中的资产」。是啊，一项如今每年还有 30 亿美元营业利润的衰退资产。对，对。我是说，这仍然是一口现金喷泉。这种衰退资产给我来一个，谢谢。对。而且你说「衰退」的时候，也许更公平的说法是「持平」。有线那一侧在衰退，但论点是也许他们能靠 ESPN 的流媒体服务……我不确定迪士尼会承认它是一项衰退资产。这其实也解释了华尔街为什么鼓噪要把它分拆出去。噢，它待在迪士尼里没什么好处了，那给我吧，谢谢。对。作为回应，2023 年 10 月，他们在迪士尼的财务报告里首次把 ESPN 单独拆成一个业务分部。所以现在有了一个体育业务分部，也就是 ESPN。这基本上是在为分拆创造可选性（optionality）。如果这就是他们的思路，那我希望他们也给「综合流媒体娱乐」单独设一个分部。

[3:45:11] Ben Gilbert

Like Hulu with Fox-like assets on it.That should be its own non-Disney company.All right.Well, we'll get there.We'll get there.In 2025, they do a deal with the NFL.The NFL trades the NFL network cable channel into ESPN in return for a 10% stake in ESPN itself.I love this deal in so many ways.Great deal for everybody.The NFL gets 10% of ESPN, which is great if you're ESPN, honestly.It's like, whew, good.They're invested in our success.And then what is the NFL doing in this content production and distribution business?

比如 Hulu 加上福克斯那类资产，那应该成为一家独立的、非迪士尼的公司。好吧，我们后面会讲到，会讲到的。2025 年，他们和 NFL 做了一笔交易：NFL 把 NFL 电视网这个有线频道并进 ESPN，换取 ESPN 本身 10% 的股份。我从很多角度都喜欢这笔交易。对各方都是好交易。NFL 拿到 ESPN 的 10%，而如果你是 ESPN，这其实很棒——那种感觉是：呼，太好了，他们和我们的成功绑在一起了。另外，NFL 在内容制作和分发这门生意里到底在干嘛？

[3:45:50] Ben Gilbert

Made no sense.So having NFL network and Red Zone and all that live over an ESPN, which their core competency, what they're good at, I love it.And for the NFL, they want ESPN to continue to be a viable bidder for their rates.So it's in their interest to prop up ESPN.Yep.Finally, at the end of the year, they launched the long-awaited full direct-to-consumer ESPN service, ESPN Unlimited.So $30 a month, full unlimited access to all ESPN channels.They aggressively bundle it with Disney Plus and Hulu.Basically, if you subscribe to ESPN Plus, you can add Disney and Hulu for only an extra $6 a month.No brainer.Which actually is done for two reasons that I did not fully appreciate at first.The first is obviously the general bundling theory, which is, eh, even if I'm not that big of a Disney Plus fan, I'll just subscribe to this whole bundle.And that way you get subscribers that you wouldn't have otherwise, the casual fan.The second that I didn't realize that Disney has really keyed into is churn mitigation.The bundle subscribers churn at a much lower rate than any individual streaming service because you're not thinking that hard about how much value am I getting out of this particular app this month.

完全说不通。所以把 NFL 电视网、Red Zone 之类的东西放到 ESPN 这个真正擅长这件事的核心能力方那里，我很喜欢。而对 NFL 来说，他们希望 ESPN 继续是他们版权的有力竞标方，所以扶持 ESPN 符合他们的利益。是的。终于，在年底，他们推出了万众期待的完整直面消费者的 ESPN 服务：ESPN Unlimited。每月 30 美元，完整无限制地看所有 ESPN 频道。他们非常激进地把它和 Disney+、Hulu 捆在一起：基本上，如果你订了 ESPN+，只要每月再加 6 美元就能加上迪士尼和 Hulu。傻子才不加。而这么做其实有两个原因，我一开始没完全领会。第一个当然是普适的捆绑理论：嗯，就算我不是 Disney+ 的死忠，我也会顺手订下整个包。这样你就拿到了本来拿不到的订户——那些休闲用户。第二个我没意识到、而迪士尼真正抓住的，是抑制流失。捆绑包订户的流失率比任何单一流媒体服务都低得多，因为你不会那么费心去想：这个月我从这个 App 里到底拿到了多少价值。

[3:47:06] David Rosenthal

Yeah.I mean, there was just so much that Disney had to learn about operating direct-to-consumer streaming services.Yep.The real story of the last couple years, though, has been the parks.Man, coming out of COVID, the parks have just been crushing it.And there's all sorts of criticisms that you could levy at them, and people do.Like, they're charging too much.They're nickel and diming.But especially as ESPN has been declining and as Disney Plus streaming has had a rocky go at best over the last couple years, the parks have totally filled that gap.David, it's so funny you say they've been crushing it.Visitors are actually down.On a financial basis.Everything is about price increases.There's 145 million people that visit the parks each year.Before the pandemic, it was actually 157 million.That was their all-time high.So they are down from the pre-pandemic high even six years after the pandemic.But, of course, the amount that they make per visit is way up and has climbed, I don't know, 5% per year for decades now.Yep.Which, yeah, maybe that is a double-edged sword.But maybe it's not.On the other hand, every time I go to Disneyland, it's super full.It doesn't seem to be keeping people away.

是啊。我是说，迪士尼在运营直面消费者的流媒体服务这件事上，要学的东西实在太多了。是的。不过过去这几年真正的主角其实是乐园。老兄，从 COVID 里走出来之后，乐园简直是所向披靡。当然你可以对它们提出各种批评，人们也确实在提：他们收费太贵，他们在斤斤计较地薅钱。但尤其是在 ESPN 持续下滑、Disney+ 流媒体这几年最多算磕磕绊绊的情况下，乐园完全填上了那个缺口。大卫，你说他们「所向披靡」，这挺有意思的。游客数其实是下降的。我说的是财务口径。一切都靠涨价。每年有 1.45 亿人次到访乐园，而疫情前是 1.57 亿人次，那是他们的历史最高。所以即便疫情过去六年了，他们仍低于疫情前的高点。但当然，他们从每位游客身上赚到的钱大幅上升，而且几十年来大概每年爬升 5%。是的。这也许是把双刃剑。但也许不是。另一方面，我每次去迪士尼乐园，都是人山人海，看起来并没有把人挡在门外。

[3:48:25] David Rosenthal

Yeah, exactly.That was the point I was going to make, too.I think consumers have had some version of that complaint about Disney ever since Michael Eisner took over in 1984.And it doesn't keep people away.And if it did, they would stop doing it.Yep.Because it's in Disney's interest to keep a giant middle class wrapped around the Disney brand.I mean, if you could get the same amount of revenue from 200 million visitors a year or 100 million visitors a year, you want it more dispersed because you want all 200 of those people imbuing Disney fandom into their core childhood memories.Yep.So Parks is now almost 60% of the company's operating income, while ESPN and Sports is down to 16%.So it's a total reversal from the situation 10 years ago.Wow.And all that leads to February of this year, 2026, where Josh DeMauro, the head of Disney Parks and Experiences, is announced as the next Disney CEO, effective six weeks later in March.With Dana Walden, who came over from Fox, named president number two and chief creative officer of the company, a new role within the company.And Bob Iger will stay on as a senior advisor and board member until his full retirement at the end of this year in 2026.Yep.

是啊，正是。我本来也要说这个点。我觉得自 1984 年迈克尔·艾斯纳接手以来，消费者对迪士尼一直都有某个版本的这种抱怨，而它并没有把人吓跑。如果真的吓跑了，他们就会停手。是的。因为让一个庞大的中产阶层始终围绕在迪士尼品牌周围，是符合迪士尼利益的。我是说，如果你能从每年 2 亿游客或 1 亿游客身上拿到同样多的收入，你会希望它更分散——因为你希望那 2 亿人都把迪士尼的粉丝身份嵌进他们的核心童年记忆里。是的。所以乐园现在几乎占了公司营业利润的 60%，而 ESPN 和体育已经降到 16%。这和十年前的局面完全反转了。哇。而这一切引向今年、也就是 2026 年 2 月：迪士尼乐园与体验部门负责人乔什·德马洛（Josh D'Amaro）被宣布为下一任迪士尼 CEO，六周后的 3 月生效。同时，从福克斯过来的达娜·沃尔登（Dana Walden）被任命为二号人物总裁兼公司首席创意官，这是公司新设的一个职位。而鲍勃·艾格将继续担任高级顾问和董事会成员，直到今年、即 2026 年年底彻底退休。是的。

[3:49:53] Ben Gilbert

So before we get to the business today, we should talk about the beginning and end of Bob Iger's tenure, just like we did with Michael Eisner.So when Bob Iger came in, September 30th, 2005, market cap of about $50 billion, the stock price 5X'd by the time he left.So, you know, that second decade, like we talked about flat, but that first decade had 5X growth in it.Revenue tripled from $31 billion in 2005 to $94 billion 20 years later.And net income went from $2.5 billion to $12.4 billion.So interestingly, net income outpaced revenue.They became five times more profitable while generating three times more revenue.Interesting.Which also is the same thing that happened under Eisner.Right.So it's been an exercise for two big CEO stretches making the company more profitable.Which probably says more about the company back in 1984 than it does over the last 40 years.But yeah.I think that's right.Okay.So should we talk about the business today?

所以在聊今天的业务之前，我们应该像讲迈克尔·艾斯纳那样，谈谈鲍勃·艾格任期的起点和终点。鲍勃·艾格 2005 年 9 月 30 日上任时，市值约 500 亿美元，到他离任时股价涨了 5 倍。所以，第二个十年像我们说的是持平的，但第一个十年里有 5 倍的增长。收入从 2005 年的 310 亿美元，到 20 年后翻了三倍到 940 亿美元。净利润从 25 亿美元增长到 124 亿美元。所以有意思的是，净利润的增速超过了收入：他们在收入变成三倍的同时，盈利能力变成了五倍。有意思。而这也正是艾斯纳任内发生过的同一件事。对。所以在两段大的 CEO 任期里，做的都是让这家公司变得更赚钱的练习。这可能更多说明了 1984 年时这家公司是什么样，而不是过去 40 年是什么样。但没错。我觉得是这样。好。那我们来聊今天的业务？

[3:50:56] David Rosenthal

Yep.First, some stats on Disney Plus, since that is the strategic focus of the company today.132 million people are Disney Plus subscribers.A little under half of those are in the US and Canada.Hulu has 64 million subscribers.ESPN Plus has 24 million subscribers.So here's a crazy number.When they last reported this in 2024, Disney generated over $19 billion in subscription revenue up from essentially zero in 2017 when they launched any of these streaming services.That $19 billion of revenue, probably closer to $22-ish billion now.They've stopped reporting it individually, which is around a quarter of the company's revenue and their single largest source of revenue.We've been talking about Disney Plus in this like, oh, it's low margin or, oh, it costs a lot of money to build it out.But the revenue is huge.They have transitioned revenue sort of from other places into Disney Plus now.And as of now, it is still subscale compared to Netflix.Netflix has 325 million subscribers around the world.That's the last time they reported it.It's up since then.So it's nearly triple Disney Plus.Yep.And last year generated $45 billion in revenue.So what, almost twice as much as Disney's $25 billion that they're doing in streaming revenue?

好。先说几个 Disney+ 的数字，因为那是公司今天的战略重心。1.32 亿人是 Disney+ 的订户，其中略少于一半在美国和加拿大。Hulu 有 6400 万订户。ESPN+ 有 2400 万订户。所以这里有个疯狂的数字：他们上一次披露是在 2024 年，迪士尼当年产生了超过 190 亿美元的订阅收入，而 2017 年他们推出这些流媒体服务之前基本是零。那 190 亿美元的收入现在可能接近 220 亿美元左右。他们已经不再单独披露了，而这大约占公司收入的四分之一，是他们最大的单一收入来源。我们一直在用「噢，它毛利低」「噢，建起来很烧钱」的口吻谈 Disney+，但它的收入是巨大的。他们等于把收入从别的地方迁移到了 Disney+ 上。而截至目前，跟 Netflix 相比它仍然是次规模（subscale）的。Netflix 在全球有 3.25 亿订户，那是他们最后一次披露的数字，此后还在涨。所以差不多是 Disney+ 的三倍。是的。而且去年 Netflix 产生了 450 亿美元收入。所以差不多是迪士尼流媒体那 250 亿美元收入的近两倍？

[3:52:28] Ben Gilbert

Yeah.And that's Hulu and Disney Plus combined.Yep.Hmm.How much operating income does Netflix generate?$13.5 billion compared to negative for Disney, right?No, Disney is now positive on their direct-to-consumer segment.But for a long time, it was negative.But so Netflix's operating income on streaming, their entire business, is the same as Disney's entire company operating income.Yep.Yep.That is a completely new phenomenon.Just to go back in time, in 2017, Netflix's operating income was under a billion.Wow.So Disney's was $14 billion.Right.Disney had that severe dip from COVID, parks closing, investing in Disney Plus, massive losses from investing in Disney Plus.And they're almost back to where they were.Whereas Netflix, over that eight-year stretch, has taken their operating income from sub-billion to now equal to Disney.Yep.And look, I mean, streaming is a scale economies business.So, like, the more scale you have, the more operating leverage you should have.Yep.So to put numbers on the investment into Disney Plus, cumulatively, there were $13 billion or so of losses that Disney incurred in building it out in that segment.But, David, they are now profitable.They generated about a billion dollars last year.

是的。而那是 Hulu 和 Disney+ 合起来的数。是的。嗯。Netflix 产生多少营业利润？135 亿美元，而迪士尼是负的，对吧？不，迪士尼的直面消费者分部现在是正的了。但有很长一段时间是负的。所以说，Netflix 光是流媒体——也就是他们的全部业务——的营业利润，等于迪士尼整个公司的营业利润。是的。是的。这是一个全新的现象。回头看，2017 年 Netflix 的营业利润还不到 10 亿美元。哇。而迪士尼那时是 140 亿美元。对。迪士尼后来因为 COVID、乐园关闭、投资 Disney+、以及在 Disney+ 上的巨额亏损而经历了那次严重下滑，现在几乎回到了原来的水平。而 Netflix 在那八年里，把营业利润从不到 10 亿做到了如今与迪士尼持平。是的。而且你看，流媒体是一门规模经济的生意，所以你的规模越大，理应有越强的经营杠杆。是的。所以给 Disney+ 的投入放个数字：累计而言，迪士尼在这个分部为建设它承担了大约 130 亿美元的亏损。但是，大卫，他们现在是盈利的了，去年赚了大约 10 亿美元。

[3:54:02] David Rosenthal

This is not and probably never will be the margins of owning cable channels.But it is definitely a writing of the ship versus how expensive it used to be to run Disney Plus, acquire, retain, subscribers, all that stuff.Yep.And really, this is what Bob Iger spent the last couple years since coming back from retirement doing.Moving over to the parks, like we had said earlier, there's 145 million people who visit the parks each year.They have 12 parks across six locations.They're designing a new park in Abu Dhabi.They have eight cruise ships, which is growing to 13, bringing on a new cruise ship almost every year for the next several years.Yeah, cruises we didn't talk about, but has been a big success for the company.Yeah, that was an Eisner thing.The thesis actually originally was after you finish up at Disney World for three or four days, you may want to go hop on a cruise for three or four days.And so you sort of depart from Florida and then go down to the Bahamas and come back up.They were kind of wrong that people would want to do those things at the same time.That was clearly a strategy not devised by people who actually have young kids.But people love the cruises.They're awesome.

这个利润率不是、而且大概永远也不会是拥有有线频道那种利润率。但比起过去运营 Disney+、获客、留存那一切有多烧钱，这肯定是把船扶正了。是的。而说真的，这就是鲍勃·艾格从退休回归后这几年主要在做的事。转到乐园这边，就像我们前面说的，每年有 1.45 亿人到访乐园。他们在六个地点有 12 个园区。他们正在阿布扎比设计一个新园区。他们有 8 艘邮轮，并将增长到 13 艘，未来几年几乎每年新增一艘。是啊，邮轮我们没聊，但对公司来说一直是个大成功。是的，那是艾斯纳时期的东西。最初的论点其实是：你在迪士尼世界玩三四天之后，可能想再上船坐三四天邮轮。所以你从佛罗里达出发，南下到巴哈马，再回来。他们在「人们会想把这两件事连着做」这一点上判断错了。那显然是一个不带小孩的人想出来的策略。但人们真的很爱邮轮。它们很棒。

[3:55:10] Ben Gilbert

I've done them.They're great.This area is where the company is investing the most heavily.So in 2023, they announced that they're investing $60 billion of capital expenditures over the next decade into parks and cruises.A lot of that is probably going to build those cruise ships, one giant cruise ship a year.$30 billion of it will be used in domestic parks in Florida and Anaheim.So if you live in the U.S., get excited because there's lots of new rides and lots of new lands that are opening.The mental model I have around this is they had a cash gusher in cable affiliate fees.It's going away.They had a very profitable box office, especially in the golden era where you could make and market a film like Avengers, the original one, for, I don't know, $200, $300 million and then gross a billion and a half at the box office.That kind of seems to be over.ESPN affiliate fees are declining.Sports leagues are commanding more of the profits.Since people aren't going to the movies like they used to, and these big IP movies are more expensive than ever, I saw a rumor go by that Avengers Doomsday is going to cost $700 million between production and marketing.Well, that'll come out this December.And of course, Disney, along with the whole world, has shifted to streaming, which has proved to not be as profitable of a business that they sort of had hoped.

我坐过，很棒。这块是公司投资最重的领域。所以 2023 年，他们宣布未来十年要向乐园和邮轮投入 600 亿美元的资本开支（capex）。其中很大一部分大概会用来造那些邮轮，一年一艘巨轮。其中 300 亿美元将用于佛罗里达和阿纳海姆的本土乐园。所以如果你住在美国，可以期待一下，会有很多新项目和新园区开放。我对这件事的心智模型是：他们曾有一口有线电视附属费的现金喷泉，它正在消失。他们曾有一门非常赚钱的票房生意，尤其是在那个黄金年代——你能用，我不知道，两三亿美元制作和宣发一部像最初那部《复仇者联盟》的电影，然后拿下十五亿美元全球票房。那个时代看起来是过去了。ESPN 的附属费在下滑，体育联盟在拿走更多利润。既然人们不再像过去那样去电影院，而这些大 IP 电影又比以往任何时候都贵——我看到一条传闻说《复仇者联盟：末日之战》的制作加宣发要花 7 亿美元。那部今年 12 月就要上映了。当然，迪士尼也和全世界一起转向了流媒体，而流媒体被证明并不是他们原本期望的那么赚钱的生意。

[3:56:31] Ben Gilbert

And so where do you make your profits?Parks.Parks.But theme parks, unfortunately, don't really scale the way that cable profits did.There's a constraint of physical room in the parks and rooms in hotels.So that's why they turn to charging more per guest since they really can't cram more guests in.And what do you have to do to justify a trip to Disney World or a cruise costing thousands of dollars now?

那么你的利润从哪儿来？乐园。乐园。但不幸的是，主题公园并不能像有线电视利润那样扩张。园区有物理空间的限制，酒店有房间数的限制。所以这就是他们转向提高人均消费的原因——他们实在塞不进更多游客了。而要让一次动辄几千美元的迪士尼世界之旅或一次邮轮显得值，你得做什么？

[3:56:58] Ben Gilbert

You better invest $60 billion and make it worth it.So that's like how you can kind of wrap your mind to this giant investment and the price increases in the parks.Yep.So overall business, $94 billion in revenue, $13 billion in net income.The segments are actually pretty interesting to look at.Entertainment is $42 billion.That's movies, streaming, content.Experiences is $36 billion.So somewhat comparable to entertainment.Sports is smaller at $18 billion.But profits are where it gets interesting.So in entertainment, the operating income is $4.7 billion.But in experiences, the operating income is $10 billion.Yeah.So despite comparable revenue between entertainment and experiences, the parks and the cruises are generating twice as much profit.Yep.And this is Disney+.It should not be the case in theory that a media content product is a lower margin product than a physical theme park product.Yes.Except when you're investing heavily into a streaming service.Yep.Almost 60% of the profits of the entire company come from parks and cruises.This is why Josh is CEO.Right.Yes.And when I say the entire company, that includes the $3 billion a year of profits from ESPN.And it's still 60% come from parks and cruises.

你最好投 600 亿美元把它做值。所以这大概就是理解那笔巨额投资和乐园涨价的方式。是的。所以整体业务：940 亿美元收入，130 亿美元净利润。各分部其实很值得看。娱乐分部是 420 亿美元，包括电影、流媒体、内容。体验分部是 360 亿美元，和娱乐差不多量级。体育更小，是 180 亿美元。但真正有意思的是利润。娱乐分部的营业利润是 47 亿美元，而体验分部的营业利润是 100 亿美元。是啊。所以尽管娱乐和体验的收入相当，乐园和邮轮产生的利润是前者的两倍。是的。而这就是 Disney+ 的缘故。理论上，一个媒体内容产品的毛利率不该比一个实体主题公园产品还低。是的。除非你正在向流媒体服务里重投入。是的。整个公司几乎 60% 的利润来自乐园和邮轮。这就是为什么乔什当 CEO。对。是的。而当我说「整个公司」，那是包含了 ESPN 每年 30 亿美元利润的，即便如此仍有 60% 来自乐园和邮轮。

[3:58:18] Ben Gilbert

Yep.And my last observation, I could not believe this.I thought I was misinterpreting their annual report.Disney does report sub-segments of their business.Their segment for theatrical distribution, that's movies released in theaters, is $2.6 billion.In revenue.That is 3% of their overall revenue.Yep.From the outside, we think about the Walt Disney Company as these movies and box office.And that is not the business.That's 3% of the revenue of this company.Yep.It's streaming's world, and Disney is just living in it.Yep.Well, I think that is probably the perfect tee-up to transition to analysis.And the main question here, which is, was Disney Plus the right strategy?

是的。而我最后一个观察，我简直不敢相信，还以为自己看错了他们的年报。迪士尼确实会披露业务的子分部。他们「院线发行」这个子分部——也就是在影院上映的电影——是 26 亿美元。收入口径。那是他们整体收入的 3%。是的。从外面看，我们把华特迪士尼公司想成这些电影和票房。而那根本不是这门生意。那只占这家公司收入的 3%。是的。这是流媒体的世界，迪士尼只是活在其中而已。是的。好，我觉得这大概是转入分析环节的完美铺垫。而核心问题就是：Disney+ 是正确的战略吗？

[3:59:11] Ben Gilbert

Like, could Disney actually viably have done anything different back in 2015, 2017, 2019?Right.The only way to answer this question is to answer it with a real thing they could have done differently,because do-nothing was not actually an answer.Right.Like, enjoy the wonderful profits of the past was not an option.Well, yeah.So just to start off, clearly what would have happened in the do-nothing category is what happened to every other major media company,which is consolidate, get acquired, or slim down significantly.Yep.It's funny.One thing that I did want was for them to slim down significantly.In my heart, I want Disney Plus to be a boutique streaming service with just high-quality content on it,to not be messing around with Hulu, to just focus on the core franchises,and somehow also to discover a streaming business model that doesn't require a content treadmill,that just treats these gems as the special gems that they are.I don't think that's a business, even though I like the product.I know, I know.I so wanted this to be the answer to all throughout our research of the past several months of making these episodes.As a consumer and as a parent, I want Disney Plus just to be what it is to me,

或者说，回到 2015、2017、2019 年，迪士尼真的能做出别的什么可行的选择吗？对。回答这个问题的唯一方式，是拿出一件他们本来真的可以做的不同的事，因为「什么都不做」并不是一个答案。对。所谓「享受过去那些美妙的利润」并不是一个选项。是啊。所以先说清楚，「什么都不做」这一类里显然会发生的，就是其他所有大型媒体公司身上发生的事：合并、被收购，或者大幅瘦身。是的。有意思的是，我倒真希望他们大幅瘦身。在我心里，我希望 Disney+ 是一个只有高品质内容的精品流媒体服务，不要去折腾 Hulu，就专注核心系列，同时还能发明出一种不需要内容跑步机的流媒体商业模式，把这些珍宝当作珍宝对待。我不认为那是一门生意，尽管我喜欢那个产品。我知道，我知道。在我们做这几期节目、研究了好几个月的过程中，我太希望这就是答案了。作为消费者、作为家长，我希望 Disney+ 就是它对我而言的那个东西——

[4:00:44] David Rosenthal

which is the very best parenting product ever invented in the history of humankind.And the laying around on Saturday and throwing on a Marvel movie thing.Yeah, exactly.But I don't think it's realistic.Yeah.And the reason I don't think it's realistic, people just don't go to the movie theater anymore.Yep.And the old Disney business model and content model was completely dependent on that.The way that you seeded new stories and characters and reinvigorated old stories and characters into the public consciousnesswas through the movie theater.People go once or twice a year for a huge event movie.They'll go for the Odyssey.They'll go for Toy Story 5.I'm going for the Odyssey on Saturday.And the reason I haven't gone before is because I've been prepping for this episode and I don't have time.Exactly.I went literally to Toy Story 5 and I'm going to the Odyssey and I have no other plans to see movies.Oh, Dune 3, I'll go see.Nice.Yeah, I'll go see that too.But they're probably not going to go see a film like Ratatouille.Oh, that's interesting.Yep.They're not going to go see Encanto and they're not going to go see Tangled.And those franchises are so important to Disney.So the only way that Disney can make sure that the maximum number of people and the maximum number of generations get exposed to those franchises

——也就是人类历史上发明过的最好的育儿产品。以及周六躺着随手放一部漫威电影的那种东西。是啊，正是。但我不觉得那现实。是啊。而我认为它不现实的原因是：人们不再去电影院了。是的。而旧的迪士尼商业模式和内容模式完全依赖电影院。你把新的故事和角色播撒进公众意识、或者让老故事老角色重新焕发的方式，就是通过电影院。人们一年去一两次，为的是一部盛事级大片。他们会为《奥德赛》去，会为《玩具总动员 5》去。我周六就要去看《奥德赛》。我之前一直没去，是因为在准备这期节目、根本没时间。正是。我就真的只去看了《玩具总动员 5》，接下来去看《奥德赛》，除此之外没有任何看电影的计划。噢，《沙丘 3》我会去看。不错。是啊，那部我也会去。但他们大概不会去看《美食总动员》那样的片子。噢，这点有意思。是的。他们不会去看《魔法满屋》，不会去看《魔发奇缘》。而那些系列对迪士尼太重要了。所以迪士尼要确保最多的人、最多的世代接触到这些系列，唯一的办法——

[4:02:05] Ben Gilbert

is to have a widely available streaming service.You know, it's interesting.It is backed up by the numbers.If you look at the new Pixar films developed in the last 10 years, 9, 10 years, none of them have set new records.Yep.The only record setters and real smash hits are these sequels.Yep.Toy Story 5 is going to be a banger.But again, 5.I don't think Pixar has gotten any worse at doing the Pixar thing.I think these have been great films, the original ones that have come out but only generated 200, 300, 400 million box office.It's that the bogey has moved.Product market fit is an evolving thing, not just because the product is changing, but the market is changing.Yeah.And the market is not one that goes and sees Ratatouille's when they enter the movie theater anymore.And so what is going to get Ratatouille in front of consumers?

——就是拥有一个覆盖面很广的流媒体服务。你知道，这挺有意思的，数字是支持这个判断的。如果你看过去十年、九到十年里新开发的皮克斯电影，没有一部创下新纪录。是的。唯一的纪录创造者和真正的爆款，都是这些续集。是的。《玩具总动员 5》肯定会大爆。但注意，是「5」。我不认为皮克斯做「皮克斯那件事」的水平有任何下降。我认为那些原创新片都是好电影，但只拿到两三亿、四亿美元的票房。是那个标尺（bogey）移动了。产品市场契合（product market fit）是会演变的东西，不只是因为产品在变，还因为市场在变。是啊。而如今的市场，已经不是那种走进电影院去看一部《美食总动员》的市场了。那么，是什么能把《美食总动员》送到消费者面前？

[4:03:03] David Rosenthal

It's either the Netflix algorithm or the YouTube algorithm or it's a first-party streaming service that Disney owns and can make sure that Soul or Turning Red or Elemental or Encanto gets in front of consumers.Even though you can't be that profitable by running said service.Yep.But when you're making $10 billion out of the parks and that's the IP that's feeding the parks, you damn sure need a way to make sure people see it.Yep.Could you have your cake and eat it too?

要么是 Netflix 的算法，要么是 YouTube 的算法，要么就是一个迪士尼自己拥有、能确保把《心灵奇旅》《青春变形记》《元素方城市》或《魔法满屋》送到消费者面前的第一方流媒体服务。哪怕运营这个服务本身赚不了多少钱。是的。但当你从乐园赚 100 亿美元、而喂养乐园的正是这些 IP 时，你就非得有个办法确保人们看到它不可。是的。那能不能鱼与熊掌兼得？

[4:03:36] Ben Gilbert

Could you run a high-quality, skinny service that reaches, I don't know, 30 to 50 million people who really just want the straight drip of Disney but also make hundreds of millions of dollars licensing that content elsewhere?

你能不能运营一个高质量的、精简的服务，触达比如 3000 万到 5000 万那些纯粹只想要迪士尼直供的人，同时又靠把内容授权到别处赚几亿美元？

[4:03:49] David Rosenthal

But just kind of spreading it around to make sure that when you have a big thing that you think is the equivalent of a box office hit, you do release it on Netflix to their 350-ish million people.That's the only other viable strategy that I could think of.Sounds like you ended up in the same spot.Disney Plus also constrains your reach.I mean, it was quite bold to think that you could go and build a Netflix competitor 10 years after Netflix started and just bet that the Disney IP was enough to sort of catch you up to them and then also be as good as they are at going and getting filler content even when you have the high-prestige Disney brand holding you back from smashing as much filler content as you can in.So the result is you don't and you end up with a subscale streaming platform.So they do have Disney Plus.It does have 130 million people subscribed but 130 is not 350.And so your content that you want to drive people to the parks and to merch is only reaching 40% of the people that it could if it were on Netflix or whoever the biggest streaming service of the day would be.Yeah, you'd be subservient to them in actually showing it to people but you are hamstringing yourself by not giving your content the most reach that you possibly can.

就是把它撒出去一些，确保当你有一个你认为等同于票房大片级别的东西时，你确实把它放到 Netflix、放到他们那 3.5 亿人面前。这是我能想到的唯一另一条可行策略。听起来你也落到了同一个点上。Disney+ 同样限制了你的触达。我是说，在 Netflix 起步十年之后还要去建一个 Netflix 竞品，赌迪士尼的 IP 足以把你追上去、并且你在获取填充型内容（filler content）上也能做得和他们一样好——而你还背着「高端迪士尼品牌」的包袱、没法像他们那样把尽可能多的填充内容塞进去——这个想法相当大胆。所以结果是你做不到，你最后得到的是一个次规模的流媒体平台。他们确实有 Disney+，确实有 1.3 亿订户，但 1.3 亿不是 3.5 亿。所以那些你希望用来把人推向乐园和周边的内容，只触达到了它本可以触达的人数的 40%——如果它放在 Netflix 或当时最大的那家流媒体上的话。是啊，你在「让人看到它」这件事上会受制于对方，但你不给自己的内容尽可能大的触达，其实是在自缚手脚。

[4:05:08] Ben Gilbert

In the theatrical world, you'd come out with a Disney movie.It would go to every theater.Everyone would see it.You know, you had reach.In the Disney Plus world, Disney Plus doesn't actually give you the reach that being on the biggest streaming services would give you.Yep.I still think it probably doesn't work.And the reason is the algorithms.Netflix is not the movie theater.Yeah, but if your content is unbelievably compelling, it will rise to the top.Sure.For people that Netflix knows will be interested in that content.Again, it's not like the movie theater.The movie theater rises to the top for everybody.People go to the movies.No, I disagree with that.In an alternate universe where the Disney-Netflix deal is still in place, whenever a new Disney movie would get released on Netflix, it would be a top 10 movie for sure, both organically and if it's a good movie, then people are going to talk about it.And they're going to tell their friends and it's going to get more popular and it's going to bubble up in the algorithms.Yes, but even a top 10, top 5, top 3 movie on Netflix in a given month, what percentage of Netflix's subscriber base is watching it?

在院线的世界里，你推出一部迪士尼电影，它会进每一家影院，所有人都会看到。你是有触达的。而在 Disney+ 的世界里，Disney+ 其实给不了你「在最大的流媒体上」所能获得的那种触达。是的。我还是觉得那条路多半走不通，原因是算法。Netflix 不是电影院。是啊，但如果你的内容极其有吸引力，它自然会浮到顶部。当然——是对那些 Netflix 知道会对这类内容感兴趣的人浮到顶部。再说一次，那和电影院不一样。电影院是对所有人浮到顶部。人们是去「看电影」这件事。不，这点我不同意。在一个迪士尼与 Netflix 的协议仍然存在的平行宇宙里，每当一部新的迪士尼电影在 Netflix 上线，它肯定会进前十，既是自然而然的，而且如果它是好片，人们就会讨论它、告诉朋友，它就会更火，就会在算法里往上冒。是的，但即便是某个月 Netflix 上的前十、前五、前三的电影，Netflix 订户里有多大比例真的在看它？

[4:06:21] David Rosenthal

I don't think it's a super high percentage.It's a supermarket driven by an algorithm.It's not a movie theater with a curated finite set of stalls that are showing a reel.It's not power law distributed enough where the big content each month gets 70% of people to watch it.You're saying any given piece of content tops out at 10% of viewers or something like that.You're competing with Seinfeld on Netflix.You go to the movie theater, you're competing with whatever else is out that week and the seven other theaters in the megaplex.Yeah.Yeah, it's interesting.All that to say, same as you.I went in wanting there to have been a different strategy and I'm actually not sure I could come up with a better one.And any pontificating we could do lacks data and Disney has all the data.And so if there were a better strategy, they're real smart.Like they probably would have come up with it and they have access to more information than we do.Yeah.The one thing that I don't think has become true is that Disney Plus provides a deeper relationship with customers.It's not like there's any synergy with the park.Yep.I mean, they finally unified my login, but it's not like my park experience is any different based on my Disney Plus viewing habits.

我不认为那是个特别高的比例。它是一个由算法驱动的超市，不是一家只有有限几个精选放映厅的电影院。它的分布没有那么幂律化（power law distributed），不会出现每月的头部内容能让 70% 的人去看的情况。你的意思是，任何一件内容顶多也就触达 10% 左右的观众。你是在和 Netflix 上的《宋飞正传》竞争。而你去电影院，是在和那一周其他上映的片子、以及多厅影院里另外七个厅竞争。是啊。是啊，有意思。总而言之，我和你一样：我带着「本该有另一种战略」的期待进来，结果我其实想不出更好的一个。而且我们能做的任何空谈都缺数据，而迪士尼手里有全部数据。所以如果真有更好的战略，他们那么聪明，大概早就想出来了，而且他们掌握的信息比我们多。是啊。我觉得有一件事并没有成真：Disney+ 并没有带来更深的客户关系。它和乐园之间并没有什么协同。是的。我是说，他们总算把我的登录账号打通了，但我的乐园体验并不会因为我在 Disney+ 上的观看习惯而有什么不同。

[4:07:28] Ben Gilbert

I'm not even sure I would want that.I can't think of any of the synergies that you would actually want.It sounds good in a pitch to say, oh, we have this direct and personal relationship.But like the biggest benefit I can tell is what we already talked about, that you actually can force content in front of my eyeballs this way.Yeah.But this general insight that I didn't have before starting the episode, that if you want to operate a streaming service that gets to scale, and if you're going to operate a streaming service, it has to get to scale since the fixed costs are so high.Then you must have a broad set of content.That is weird.That it must be a broad set of content because you must appeal to lots of people, and therefore you need diverse content to appeal to all of them.Put another way, the winning streaming service will be the kitchen sink.Yep.Yep.Yep.And that's what Netflix is.And that's how bundles work.I mean, the winning thing in TV was the kitchen sink, the cable bundle.Yep.That's a kitchen sink.That's what Hulu is.Yep.Again, I don't know that I actually could come up with a different, better strategy, but the world that Disney and all the traditional media companies entered starting in 2015 is just a fundamentally worse one for their content.

我甚至不确定我会想要那样。我想不出任何你真正想要的协同。在路演里说「噢，我们和用户有了直接而个人化的关系」听起来很好，但我能看出的最大好处，就是我们刚说过的那个：你确实能用这种方式把内容强推到我眼前。是啊。不过有一个我在做这期节目之前没有的普遍洞察：如果你想运营一个能达到规模的流媒体服务——而只要你要做流媒体，它就必须达到规模，因为固定成本太高——那你就必须拥有一套「广」的内容。这很怪。它必须是广谱内容，因为你必须吸引很多人，因此你需要多样化的内容去吸引所有这些人。换个说法：胜出的流媒体服务将会是那个「厨房水槽」。是的。是的。是的。而这就是 Netflix。这也是捆绑包的运作方式。我是说，电视时代胜出的东西就是厨房水槽，也就是有线电视捆绑包。是的。那就是一个厨房水槽。Hulu 也是这个东西。是的。再说一次，我也不确定自己真能想出一个不同的、更好的战略，但迪士尼和所有传统媒体公司从 2015 年起进入的这个世界，对他们的内容来说就是一个根本上更糟的世界。

[4:08:43] David Rosenthal

To run content businesses, yes.Yep.And specifically for Disney because they got to increase their production output so much.And the whole brand promise of the company is founded on scarce content that's always great.Yep.Kind of interesting.Is it a worse world for content businesses, but we actually live in the best world ever for consumers of content?

对经营内容生意来说，是的。是的。而对迪士尼尤其如此，因为他们不得不把产量提高那么多。而这家公司整个品牌承诺的根基，是「稀缺且永远出色」的内容。是的。挺有意思的。这对内容生意来说是个更糟的世界，但我们其实是不是活在对内容消费者而言史上最好的世界里？

[4:09:07] David Rosenthal

Mm.Like, consumers have an immense amount of choice.You can, and you can choose from everything from someone influencing on their phone to high quality cinema available both in the movie theater, in IMAX, and on your TV a mere 45 days after it comes out in the theaters.Right.Immense amount of choice for a minuscule amount of money compared to the old world.Right.Right.It's the best deal ever for consumers.Yeah.YouTube is free.Netflix is-All these services combined cost approximately the same price as a cable bundle.Right.And compare that to going to the movie theater every weekend.The only case I can possibly make that we live in a worse environment is the over-exploitation of IP franchises and sequel-itis.Yep.But we live in a pretty amazing content time.Yep.Okay.So I think we should move this into bull and bear.Bull case and bear case for Disney from here.Let's start with the bear case.The core of the Disney flywheel and the ESPN beautiful affiliate fee business model are both compromised and perhaps permanently impaired.Yes.That's the core of the bear case to me.Yes.Illustrated by this question, has Disney produced a single new franchise in the last decade that has been a commercial success?

嗯。是啊，消费者拥有巨大的选择空间。从有人拿手机做的网红内容，到在电影院、在 IMAX、以及在上映仅 45 天后就能在自家电视上看到的高质量院线电影，你都能选。对。相对旧世界而言，用极其微小的花费换来极大的选择。对。对。这对消费者是史上最划算的交易。是啊。YouTube 是免费的，Netflix 是——所有这些服务加起来的价格大约和一个有线电视捆绑包差不多。对。再拿它跟每个周末都去电影院比一比。我唯一能提出的「我们身处更差环境」的论据，是 IP 系列被过度开采和「续集病」。是的。但我们确实活在一个相当美好的内容时代。是的。好。那我想我们该进入多空辩（bull and bear）环节了：从现在起看迪士尼的多头理由和空头理由。先从空头开始。迪士尼飞轮的核心和 ESPN 那套美妙的附属费商业模式，两者都已经被削弱，也许是被永久性地损伤了。是的。对我来说这是空头论的核心。是的。而它可以用这个问题来说明：迪士尼在过去十年里，有没有打造出哪怕一个在商业上成功的全新系列？

[4:10:35] Ben Gilbert

Everything I can think of that did big dollars after 2016 at the box office, and I picked 2016 because that's when Moana and Zootopia came out.Everything after that that was big box office for the company is harvesting existing IP.Yep.Yep.And coincides exactly with when streaming kind of became king.Yeah.If you wanted to have a big concern, I think that's sort of it.What's the Lion King of tomorrow or the Toy Story of tomorrow or the Avengers of tomorrow?

我能想到的、2016 年之后在票房上做出大数字的东西——我选 2016 年是因为那是《海洋奇缘》和《疯狂动物城》上映的年份——那之后所有为公司带来大票房的东西，都是在收割既有 IP。是的。是的。而这恰好和流媒体开始称王的时间点重合。是啊。如果你想找一个值得大担心的点，我觉得那大概就是了。明天的《狮子王》在哪儿？明天的《玩具总动员》在哪儿？明天的《复仇者联盟》在哪儿？

[4:11:09] David Rosenthal

Coco and Kanto are probably the best shots at it, maybe elemental.But it's interesting because those did not have big box offices.And so you sort of have to rely on streaming to tell you that it's big and number two to kind of carry it.And it's kind of case in point.As awesome as those movies are and those franchises are and they're showing up in the parks, they're not Frozen.Frozen might have been the last mega hit.Hmm.It's fascinating.My other one is that the three acquisitions, Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm, were brilliant.But in retrospect, it's kind of looking like they provided amazing fuel for about 20 years, but not for 50 years.Yep.I mean, where does Star Wars go next?

《寻梦环游记》和《魔法满屋》大概是最有机会的，也许还有《元素方城市》。但有意思的是，这些片子的票房都不大。所以你得靠流媒体来告诉你它很火、靠续集来把它扛起来。这其实正好印证了这一点：不管这些电影和系列有多棒、也确实出现在乐园里，它们都不是《冰雪奇缘》。《冰雪奇缘》可能是最后一个超级爆款。嗯。这很耐人寻味。我的另一个点是：漫威、皮克斯、卢卡斯影业这三笔收购堪称神来之笔，但回过头看，它们像是提供了大约 20 年的绝佳燃料，而不是 50 年。是的。我是说，《星球大战》下一步往哪儿走？

[4:11:59] Ben Gilbert

And is Marvel fully exploited now?And the company has bet so big on these IP flywheels that, like, you know, every new thing in the park is tied to one of them.All the sequels are tied to them.And when you run out of sequels, I got to tell you, I'm scared for Avengers Doomsday.I saw the trailer and I was like, I remember when I used to be really, really excited about this.I know.I know.And I just have a feeling in my stomach, like I'm just not anymore.I'm barely even aware that it's coming, which is even a worse place to be.Which says a little bit more about the cultural importance of theaters.Although I bet you knew the Odyssey was coming.Yep.I bet you knew Dune 3 is coming.Yep.Yep.So, okay.Bull case.I will take the exact opposite side of what you just laid out in the long run.I think these franchises, whether it's core Disney, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel, are just like luxury brands.You cannot kill them.They will have uptimes and they will have downtimes, but they will always come back because these are the core myths of our society.And they get handed down generation to generation.And when they are at their lowest point, that is the moment that they will turn around and surprise us in new ways.

还有漫威现在是不是已经被彻底开采干净了？而这家公司在这些 IP 飞轮上押得太重，以至于乐园里每一个新东西都绑在其中之一上，所有续集都绑在它们上。而当你把续集用完的时候……我得说，我为《复仇者联盟：末日之战》捏把汗。我看了预告片，心想：我记得我以前对这个是非常非常兴奋的。我知道，我知道。而我胃里有种感觉：我现在就是不兴奋了。我甚至几乎意识不到它要来了，而那是更糟糕的处境。这其实更说明了影院的文化重要性。不过我打赌你知道《奥德赛》要来了。是的。我打赌你知道《沙丘 3》要来了。是的。是的。那好，多头理由。我要站到你刚才所说的完全相反的一边。我认为从长期看，这些系列——不管是迪士尼核心、皮克斯、卢卡斯影业还是漫威——就像奢侈品牌一样，你杀不死它们。它们会有高潮期，也会有低谷期，但它们总会回来，因为这些是我们这个社会的核心神话，而且它们会代代相传。而当它们处在最低点时，正是它们会转身、以新的方式让我们惊喜的时刻。

[4:13:24] David Rosenthal

That's a great narrative.I have no way to push back.And to make your point, at some point here in the next couple of years, I can't wait to show my son Star Wars for the first time.And he's going to grow up watching Star Wars.And is he going to care that they made a crappy Obi-Wan show?

这是个很好的叙事，我没法反驳。而且为了支持你的观点：接下来这几年的某个时候，我迫不及待想第一次给我儿子放《星球大战》。他将会伴着《星球大战》长大。而他会在乎他们拍过一部烂的《欧比旺》剧集吗？

[4:13:39] David Rosenthal

No, he'll never see it.Yep.It's still the core myth of his time.In fact, didn't George Lucas do like a Star Wars holiday special way back in the 80s?And you know what none of us have ever seen and never affected any of the myth making?

不会，他永远不会看到它。是的。它仍然是他那个时代的核心神话。说起来，乔治·卢卡斯早在 80 年代不是做过一个《星球大战》圣诞特别节目吗？而你知道有什么是我们所有人都没看过、也从未影响过任何造神话的？

[4:13:52] Ben Gilbert

The Star Wars holiday special.Yeah.And I think it's actually the story of this whole episode.And it always comes back.It always comes back.These franchises, these studios, and these characters and stories are going to live forever.Yep.All right.I've got a few reasons for optimism here.Great.Despite the fact that they intentionally accelerated the demise of their older profitable businesses, they're back to all-time highs on total profits now.Yep.They took those kind of rebuilding years, five, six years in the middle, had a pandemic in the middle of it that shut down all their parks.But I think in 2026, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.And just five years ago, it was negative during COVID and really kind of dug out of that hole after losing all this money in streaming.So, yeah, for all the headwinds that we described, they're going to continue to set new financial records.Now, it's not growing at the speed that you'd want for a business to justify a high multiple or a fast-growing stock price.But in many ways, Disney is a scale company that has kind of accomplished its mission.So, I don't know that I want it to be a 20% year-over-year grower.

《星球大战》圣诞特别节目。是啊。而我觉得这其实就是这一整期节目的故事：它总会回来。它总会回来。这些系列、这些工作室、这些角色和故事，会永远活下去。是的。好，我这边有几个乐观的理由。很好。尽管他们主动加速了自己那些更老、更赚钱业务的消亡，他们的总利润现在已经回到历史最高点。是的。他们经历了中间那五六年的重建期，中途还赶上一场把所有乐园关停的疫情。但按现在的趋势看，2026 年他们很可能会创下历史最高的净利润纪录。而就在五年前，COVID 期间还是负的，之后又在流媒体上亏掉那么多钱才把坑填上。所以，尽管有我们描述的所有逆风，他们还是会继续创造新的财务纪录。当然，它的增速不足以支撑高倍数估值或快速上涨的股价。但从很多角度看，迪士尼是一家已经算是完成了自身使命的规模型公司。所以我不确定我希望它做一家年增 20% 的公司。

[4:15:07] David Rosenthal

As a consumer, I quite like that it's a 3% or a 5% growth company.Yeah.I think this might even be a version of the same thing, too.The Disney parks are also a fundamental just part of our culture that gets transferred from generation to generation, that parents take their kids.And it's just always going to be that way.Yep.The parks are amazing.No competitor has the sort of brand affinity they have, the flywheel infrastructure they have.Yeah.A lot of reason to be optimistic.All right.Then I've got one more point to the bull case for Disney.Are you going to pitch Josh tomorrow on doing an acquisition?

作为消费者，我其实挺喜欢它是一家 3% 或 5% 增长的公司。是啊。我觉得这可能也是同一件事的另一个版本。迪士尼乐园同样是我们文化中代代相传的一个基本组成部分——父母带孩子去，而且永远都会是这样。是的。乐园太棒了。没有任何竞争者拥有他们那样的品牌亲和力，那样的飞轮基础设施。是啊。有很多理由保持乐观。好。那我还有一个补充到迪士尼多头理由的点。你是要明天去向乔什推销一笔收购吗？

[4:15:44] David Rosenthal

Absolutely.But here's what it is.I think Disney still is just like it was when Bob took over.I think it's still the very best home for the best characters and stories and IP franchises in the world when they need a home.And there are two extremely obvious ones to me out there right now.One is Bluey, which, you know, is the greatest children's show ever made.That's also much more than a children's show.It's already quasi within Disney.Right.It's got placement in the parks.It's got a deal with Disney+.Bluey is not Pixar.It's not at that scale, but it's so many echoes of Pixar right now.It's not really capable of continuing and standing alone on its own.Like Joe Brum isn't going to make Bluey into a Disney competitor, but Disney can be the very best stored for all the future of Bluey.And Bluey has so much more running room ahead of it in terms of what it can be.Yep.All right.So that's one.And then the other one, the opposite of the spectrum is Nintendo.Man, Nintendo has fallen on hard times.Do you know what Nintendo's market cap is right now?

绝对是。但内容是这样的。我认为迪士尼仍然像鲍勃接手时那样，仍然是世界上最好的角色、故事和 IP 系列在需要一个家时的最佳归宿。而现在外面有两个对我来说极其明显的对象。一个是《布鲁伊》（Bluey），你知道，那是有史以来最好的儿童节目，而且它远不止是一部儿童节目。它其实已经半只脚在迪士尼里了。对。它在乐园里有落地，它和 Disney+ 有协议。《布鲁伊》不是皮克斯，还没到那个体量，但它现在和皮克斯有太多呼应之处了：它其实没有能力独自延续和独立支撑下去。乔·布鲁姆（Joe Brumm）不会把《布鲁伊》做成一个迪士尼竞争者，但迪士尼可以成为《布鲁伊》全部未来的最佳归宿。而《布鲁伊》在「它能成为什么」这件事上，前面还有非常长的跑道。是的。好，这是一个。另一个则在光谱的另一端，是任天堂。老兄，任天堂现在处境艰难。你知道任天堂现在的市值是多少吗？

[4:17:01] Ben Gilbert

50 billion, but down 50% from last year.Whoa.Yeah.I mean, you could pick up Nintendo for less than the cost of Fox now.Now, I don't know that Nintendo would ever sell.Japan would not let it.There's no way.But, you know, look, they have this relationship with Universal now.I mean, it is a travesty, frankly, that Disney let Nintendo go to Universal.Nintendo is like Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm combined.I mean, they have some of the very best IP in the entire world.They've got three franchises that can stand toe to toe with anything at Disney in Mario, Zelda and Pokemon.And then they've got a whole slew of other great stuff.Donkey Kong, Metroid, Kirby, Star Fox, Animal Crossing.I mean, there are movies for decades to be made here, plus the video games.And then the parks.I took my girls to Nintendo Land at Universal Studios in L.A.It was amazing.And it's like one fiftieth the size of Disney World.With the bigger Disney canvas, Nintendo physical experiences could be so much more.Hmm.There you go.That's my pitch.I like it.Seven powers.Powers.Yes.All right.So, listeners, this is the part of the episode where we use Hamilton Helmer's framework to discusswhy a company gets to be more profitable than its nearest competitor.

500 亿美元，但比去年跌了 50%。哇。是啊。我是说，你现在花比买福克斯还少的钱就能把任天堂拿下。当然，我不知道任天堂会不会卖，日本不会允许，绝无可能。但你看，他们现在和环球有合作关系。说真的，迪士尼把任天堂让给环球，坦白讲是一场悲剧。任天堂就像皮克斯、漫威和卢卡斯影业加在一起。我是说，他们拥有全世界最顶级的一些 IP。他们有三个能和迪士尼任何东西正面掰手腕的系列：马力欧、塞尔达和宝可梦。然后还有一大堆别的好东西：大金刚、密特罗德、卡比、星际火狐、动物森友会。我是说，这里有够拍几十年的电影，外加电子游戏，再加上乐园。我带我家闺女们去了洛杉矶环球影城的任天堂世界，太棒了。而它的面积大概只有迪士尼世界的五十分之一。有了迪士尼更大的画布，任天堂的实体体验可以做到大得多。嗯。就是这样，这就是我的提案。我喜欢。七种力量（Seven Powers）。力量。好。所以听众朋友，这是我们用汉密尔顿·赫尔默（Hamilton Helmer）的框架、来讨论一家公司为什么能比最接近的竞争者更赚钱的环节。

[4:18:32] David Rosenthal

And there are seven of them.Scale economies, network economies, counterpositioning, switching costs, branding, cornered resource, and process power.Man, how do we do this this time?I think we do it this time for the streaming era.Disney Plus versus streaming competitors.Yep.Yep.Yep.So, the pitch of Disney Plus versus other vertical competitors.Peacock or Paramount Plus is that it has higher quality, durable franchise intellectual property that those other ones don't really have.Yep.Cornered resource.Yep.And they have them forever.Just like the vertical ones.You know, that Peacock has The Office forever or that Paramount Plus has Star Trek forever.But Disney just has a lot more of those than the other vertical ones.The funny thing that I'm struggling with here is it's not like they actually do generate more profits than the real competitor, than Netflix.Yeah.Well, I think it's really simple.It all just comes down to scale economies in the streaming business.This is why Netflix has, what did we say, $45 billion in revenue and $13.5 billion in operating income.And Disney streaming business is half of that in revenue and barely profitable.That is the clearest illustration of scale economies that I can present to you.

一共有七种：规模经济、网络经济、反向定位（counterpositioning）、转换成本、品牌、独占资源（cornered resource）和流程优势（process power）。老兄，这次我们怎么讲？我觉得这次我们按流媒体时代来讲：Disney+ 对阵流媒体竞争者。是的。是的。是的。那么，Disney+ 相对其他垂直类竞争者的卖点，是它拥有更高质量、更持久的系列知识产权，而那些对手基本没有。是的。独占资源。是的。而且他们永远拥有这些资源。就像那些垂直玩家一样——比如 Peacock 永远有《办公室》，Paramount+ 永远有《星际迷航》。只是迪士尼拥有的这类资源比其他垂直玩家多得多。我在这里纠结的一点很有意思：他们其实并没有比真正的竞争者、也就是 Netflix，赚到更多利润。是啊。嗯，我觉得道理很简单，归根到底就是流媒体生意里的规模经济。这就是为什么 Netflix 有——我们刚才说多少来着——450 亿美元收入和 135 亿美元营业利润，而迪士尼的流媒体业务收入只有它的一半，而且勉强盈利。这是我能给你举出的、关于规模经济最清晰的例证。

[4:19:50] Ben Gilbert

Yeah.Hmm.So does the world end up where you have Netflix, which is the giant winner-take-all scale economies player in paid streaming?Then you have YouTube, which is the giant winner-take-all one in ad-supported, free, creator-led content instead of professionally created content.And Disney can sort of stay subscale because it's subsidized by the profits from their other businesses.So it doesn't need to be as competitive on a like-for-like basis with Netflix.Yeah.I think Disney's best bet here is to be a clear number two.And they probably shouldn't lean into that because if you're trying to be number one, then you're going to chase the content kitchen sink all the way there.Yep.Yep.They need enough of a content kitchen sink to be superior to Peacock, et cetera.But frankly, they're already there.They can dial back content production a lot and let the flywheel heal itself a little bit.Agree.And still be just fine.Keep Hulu Hulu.Yeah.Hulu and Disney Plus keep getting closer and closer together.The more they bundle it and put the content in each other's apps.Are you starting a Make Hulu Great Again campaign here?

是啊。嗯。那么世界最终会不会变成这样：付费流媒体里有 Netflix 这个巨大的赢家通吃的规模玩家；然后有 YouTube，是广告支持的、免费的、以创作者内容而非专业制作内容为主那一侧的赢家通吃巨头；而迪士尼可以就这么保持次规模，因为它被其他业务的利润补贴着，所以它不需要在同一口径上和 Netflix 一样有竞争力。是啊。我觉得迪士尼在这里最好的选择就是做一个明确的第二名。而且他们大概不该硬去扭转这一点，因为如果你想当第一，你就会一路去追那个内容厨房水槽。是的。是的。他们需要的厨房水槽内容量，只要足以优于 Peacock 之类就行。而坦白说，他们已经到那儿了。他们完全可以大幅调低内容产量，让飞轮自己愈合一点。同意。而且仍然会活得很好。让 Hulu 保持是 Hulu。是啊。Hulu 和 Disney+ 却在越靠越近，他们把两者越捆越紧、还把内容互相放进对方的 App。你这是要发起一场「让 Hulu 重新伟大」的运动吗？

[4:21:10] Ben Gilbert

I'm starting a spin co of Hulu and Fox assets campaign here.That's what I'm doing.Keep Avatar in Disney, but everything else has to go.All right.Quintessence.Listeners, this is our exercise to wind down the episode, bring it home and talk about kind of the one big idea that stuck with us.Yep.My quintessence is that the environment changed.Yep.Disney used to operate in an unbelievable and easy environment.The cable bundle allowed ESPN to generate huge profits basically on autopilot.Partially because of ESPN, all the other TV channels that Disney offered also were super profitable.Customers used to go to the movies super often and Disney had some of the most profitable and successful movies.Then to put this on steroids, they could box and sell the movies after that and make giant profits again.You had everything going for you.That was peak traditional media.Then the modern environment is the exact opposite.Cable bundle is getting destroyed.Disney could no longer realize those profits.People stop going to movie theaters so box office gross dries up.Streaming turns out to be expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to acquire customers, harder to create events around.People don't rally around them like they did movie theaters.

我这是要发起一场「把 Hulu 和福克斯资产分拆出去」的运动。这才是我在做的事。把《阿凡达》留在迪士尼，其他都得走。好。精髓（Quintessence）。听众朋友，这是我们收尾节目、把它带回家、聊聊那个最留在我们心里的大想法的环节。是的。我的精髓是：环境变了。是的。迪士尼过去所处的环境好得不可思议、也轻松得不可思议。有线电视捆绑包让 ESPN 基本上在自动驾驶状态下产生巨额利润。部分也因为 ESPN，迪士尼提供的其他所有电视频道也都超级赚钱。顾客过去非常频繁地去看电影，而迪士尼拥有一些最赚钱、最成功的电影。然后，再给这一切打一针类固醇：他们可以在电影之后把它装盒卖出去，再赚一笔巨额利润。你要什么有什么。那是传统媒体的巅峰。而现代的环境恰恰相反：有线捆绑包正在被摧毁，迪士尼再也无法实现那些利润；人们不再去电影院，所以票房收入枯竭；流媒体被证明建起来贵、维护贵、获客贵，也更难围绕它制造事件——人们不会像围绕电影院那样为它聚集起来。

[4:22:26] Ben Gilbert

It's expensive to retain customers.It's far less profitable and it's not a replacement for the theatrical revenue.And ultimately, because of all of this, there's just not as much cushy surplus everywhere.And you have to make a lot of really shrewd business decisions if you want to keep generating the same or more profits each year.So where does this leave us?

留住用户也贵。它的利润率低得多，而且它并不能替代院线收入。而最终，因为所有这些，各处都不再有那么多舒服的剩余（surplus）了。如果你想每年继续赚到同样多甚至更多的利润，你就必须做出一大堆非常精明的商业决策。那么这把我们带到哪儿？

[4:22:44] David Rosenthal

Disney's going to be fine.And if managed very carefully, thrive.They're still going to produce beloved characters and stories we all love.But the prosperity from the late 90s and the 2005 to 2019 era,that was a complete anomaly due to how good all the structural forces around the business were.And it's just brutal that as a company, they will forever be compared against those eras.Yep.Yep.And frankly, the management team in that era just knocked it out of the park in terms of seizing those opportunities and innovating.All the stuff they added, home video, Broadway, the stores in the malls, the parks and transforming Walt Disney World into a resort.You know what it is?

迪士尼会没事的。而且如果管理得非常小心，它会繁荣。他们仍然会产出我们都爱的、深受喜爱的角色和故事。但 90 年代末以及 2005 到 2019 那个时代的那种繁荣，完全是一个异常值，源于当时围绕这门生意的所有结构性力量都好得离谱。而残酷的地方在于，作为一家公司，他们将永远被拿来和那些年代做比较。是的。是的。而且坦白说，那个时代的管理团队在抓住机会和创新方面确实打出了满分：他们加的所有东西——家庭录像、百老汇、商场里的门店、乐园，以及把华特迪士尼世界改造成度假区。你知道这是怎么回事吗？

[4:23:32] David Rosenthal

You could make money in media then.Yeah.Yeah, yeah.Like you had to do clever stuff, but like there was money to be made.There was room for creativity to thrive.There's much less of that now.Totally agree.Absent a completely different business model like being Mr. Beast.There's a whole other universe where you can create very successful media business models now,but it's so far from Disney's universe that you can't even see a path to it.Yep.And that leads right into my quintessence.I guess I'm ever the optimist on this front.Disney is the home of generational myths and you'll never kill it.It's what I said in my bull case.Unkillable.It'll have its ups and downs and maybe we'll never see another era like the 90s and that was truly peak Disney from a business and creativity standpoint.And the early 2010s.And the early 2010s too.Yep.Yep.Absolutely.But this is sort of my point.It goes in 20 year cycles and I wouldn't be surprised if it's back on top of the world in another 10 years.Love it.Carve outs.Carve outs.Let's do it.This is the part where we talk about products that we have been loving that have nothing to do with this episode, but we want to share with you listeners.I have a Warby Parker one to share with everyone.

那时候你在媒体行业是能赚到钱的。是啊。对，对。当然你得做些聪明的事，但那时候是有钱可赚的，有让创造力生长的空间。而现在这种空间少得多了。完全同意。除非采用一种完全不同的商业模式，比如去当 MrBeast。现在确实存在另一整个宇宙，在那里你能创造非常成功的媒体商业模式，但它离迪士尼的宇宙太远，远到你根本看不到一条通往它的路。是的。而这正好接上我的精髓。我猜在这件事上我永远是那个乐观派：迪士尼是世代神话的家园，你永远杀不死它。这就是我在多头理由里说的：不可杀。它会有起有落，也许我们再也看不到 90 年代那样的时代——那是从商业和创造力两个角度看真正的迪士尼巅峰。还有 2010 年代初。2010 年代初也算。是的。是的。完全同意。但这正是我的意思：它是以 20 年为周期在走，而如果再过十年它又重回世界之巅，我一点也不会意外。喜欢这个。切片推荐（Carve outs）。切片推荐。来吧。这是我们聊那些和本期节目毫无关系、但我们最近很喜欢、想分享给听众的产品的环节。我有一个 Warby Parker 的要分享。

[4:24:51] Ben Gilbert

Fun.I have been wearing glasses more recently and in the summer months, it's nightmarish to carry two pairs of glasses with you.So what's the answer?Transition lenses.But transition lenses just look so derpy.I mean, classically transition lenses are like there's a treatment on regular glasses and when you're wearing regular glasses and they're tinted, it just looks really bad.So Warby Parker has a product called their transitions extra active, which are dark outdoors.They even transition in the car and I got them in brown.And I think this is the key unlock.They don't look as dorky when the tint is brown as when the tint is just regular gray.And if you get them in a frame that can kind of play as both indoor, outdoor, outdoor, then it can work.So for the first time in my life, I've been wearing a form of transition lenses that I like.And yeah, brown extra active from Warby Parker.Nice.Nice.At some point, this is like my fifth sunglasses carve out.My carve outs will exclusively be forms of eyewear.We should start a acquired retail.Yes.Sunglasses.Yeah.All right.Moving on.I have three carve outs.So my first one that I was sure you were going to take is Michael Arndt's Toy Story 3.Oh my God.

有意思。我最近戴眼镜更多了，而在夏天，随身带两副眼镜简直是噩梦。那怎么办？变色镜片。可变色镜片看上去太蠢了。我是说，传统的变色镜片就是在普通眼镜上加一层处理，当你戴着普通眼镜、镜片变色时，看上去真的很难看。而 Warby Parker 有一款产品叫「Transitions 超强活性（extra active）」，在户外会变深，甚至在车里也会变色，我买的是棕色。我觉得这就是关键的解锁点：变成棕色调时不像普通灰色那样显得呆。而且如果你选一副能兼顾室内外的镜框，那就成立了。所以这是我人生第一次戴上了自己喜欢的变色镜片。对，Warby Parker 的棕色超强活性款。不错。不错。说起来，这大概是我第五次推荐墨镜类产品了。我的切片推荐怕是要清一色变成各种眼镜。我们该开一家 Acquired 零售店。对，卖墨镜。是啊。好，往下走。我有三个切片推荐。第一个我本来以为你会抢的，是迈克尔·阿恩特（Michael Arndt）讲《玩具总动员 3》的——天哪。

[4:26:18] David Rosenthal

It's so good.Lecture on YouTube.Michael was the screenwriter for Toy Story 3 and shared this lecture on YouTube about how story works at Pixar.It was part of our research for this episode.So many people told us about it.And not only did he share a talk, he got permission to share a bunch of the early story reels.So you get to see the rough drafts of what the story was before the brain trust weighed in and made it better.Yeah.It's so good.Well worth it.It's like an hour and 20 minutes of your time.If you care at all about story or even just understanding what goes into making the magic of a Pixar movie.Yeah.Go check it out.Then I have a carve out request also related to the episode.So we were in New York recently for the event that we did with Sierra and I brought the family.And my older daughter was super excited to go to the Nintendo store in Rockefeller Center in New York because she thought that they're in New York at the flagship.They might have Princess Peach costumes.They did not have Princess Peach costumes.As far as I can tell, Nintendo does not make first party Princess Peach costumes.This is why Disney needs to acquire Nintendo because the fruit is just laying there, right, hanging off the trees.

太好了。——YouTube 上的那场讲座。迈克尔是《玩具总动员 3》的编剧，他在 YouTube 上分享了这场关于皮克斯的故事是怎么运作的讲座。它是我们这期节目的研究材料之一，好多人都跟我们提过。而且他不只分享了这场讲座，他还拿到许可分享了一批早期故事样片。所以你能看到在智囊团介入并把它改好之前，故事最初的粗剪是什么样。是啊，太棒了，非常值得。大概要花你一小时二十分钟。如果你对故事有任何兴趣，甚至只是想理解做出一部皮克斯电影的魔法里都有些什么，去看看吧。是的，去看。然后我还有一个和本期相关的切片「请求」。我们最近去纽约参加了和 Sierra 一起办的活动，我把家人也带上了。我大女儿特别兴奋要去纽约洛克菲勒中心的任天堂商店，因为她以为他们在纽约的旗舰店里可能会有碧奇公主的服装。他们没有碧奇公主服装。据我所知，任天堂根本不做第一方的碧奇公主服装。这就是为什么迪士尼需要收购任天堂，因为果子就摆在那儿，挂在树上等着摘，对吧？

[4:27:38] David Rosenthal

Josh, David wants to come in and do strap planning with you.So bring him in.I don't care if it's Disney or Nintendo or Universal or whoever, just make some Princess Peach costumes for my almost five-year-old.And then my last carve out is the Golden State Valkyries, the WNBA franchise here in San Francisco.We've gotten to know Jess Smith, the president of the Valkyries.We have done a few events with her.Yeah, she's so great.Actually, at the Century event that we did, what, last year?

乔什，大卫想进来跟你一起做战略规划，把他招进去吧。我不在乎是迪士尼还是任天堂还是环球还是谁，就给我快五岁的女儿做几件碧奇公主的服装吧。然后我最后一个切片推荐是金州女武神（Golden State Valkyries），旧金山这边的 WNBA 球队。我们认识了女武神的总裁杰丝·史密斯（Jess Smith），和她一起办过几场活动。是啊，她特别棒。其实在我们办的那场 Century 活动上——那是去年吧？

[4:28:11] David Rosenthal

Yes.What she and the whole Valkyries organization and the Warriors organization, it's the same ownership group, have done with the Valkyries is nothing short of incredible.It's the second year of the franchise.It is the most successful women's sports franchise in the entire world.It's worth over a billion dollars now.We went for the first time to experience it.I've never been to anything like it.It was one of the best sporting events I've ever been to, period.My little girls were so into it.It's like magic.They were standing up, cheering, applauding, yelling.The arena was sold out.They've sold out every single game they've ever played.It's really awesome.If you're in San Francisco, go to a game.All right, off to come down.Well, with that, listeners, we have some thank yous for everyone who helped us with this episode.First, to our partners, Sierra.Sierra helps the great companies of the world build better, more human customer experiences.Sierra.ai slash acquired.To WorkOS, start selling to enterprise customers with just a few lines of code and build authentication in minutes instead of months.That's workos.com.To Sentry, application monitoring software considered not bad by millions of developers.

是的。她和整个女武神组织、以及勇士队组织——两者是同一个所有权集团——在女武神身上做成的事，可以说了不起到无以复加。这是这支球队的第二年，它已经是全世界最成功的女子运动球队，现在估值超过 10 亿美元。我们第一次去现场体验，我从没见过那样的场面，那是我去过的最棒的体育赛事之一，没有之一。我的两个小女儿完全入迷了，简直像魔法一样：她们站起来欢呼、鼓掌、大喊。整个球馆座无虚席。他们打过的每一场比赛都是满场。真的太棒了。如果你在旧金山，去看一场比赛吧。好，收尾了。那么听众朋友，我们要感谢所有帮助过我们做这期节目的人。首先，感谢我们的合作伙伴 Sierra。Sierra 帮助全世界最出色的公司打造更好、更有人味的客户体验，Sierra.ai/acquired。感谢 WorkOS，用几行代码就能开始向企业客户销售，把认证功能从几个月缩短到几分钟搞定，网址是 workos.com。感谢 Sentry，被数百万开发者认为「还不赖」的应用监控软件。

[4:29:29] David Rosenthal

That's sentry.io slash acquired.And also, Sentry is our partner for the annual Acquired Meetup this year, happening on September 17th.More info at acquired.fm slash meetup.And to Anthropic, Claude is a truly incredible AI product that thinks with you, just like it thought with me in preparing for this episode, claude.ai slash acquired.You can click the link in the show notes to learn more about any of our partners.And as always, all the sources and books and everything for this episode are linked in the show notes.So, some thank yous.First, as always, to Arvind Navaratnam at Worldly Partners for his great write-up on Disney linked in the show notes.Check out worldlypartners.com.Yep.Well, I've got a long list of folks to thank for all their time and conversations helping us prepare for this episode.First, to Nancy Lee, to Bob Iger, to Josh DeMauro, to Pete Docter, Jim Morris, and all the incredible folks who hosted us for the day at Pixar, including Danielle Feinberg, Catherine Serafian, and the incredible people who run the Pixar archives.That was an experience like none other.So helpful.To Kristen Bell, the voice of Anna in Frozen, who helped us think about Disney animation and Pixar.

网址是 sentry.io/acquired。另外，Sentry 也是我们今年 Acquired 年度线下聚会的合作伙伴，活动将在 9 月 17 日举行，更多信息见 acquired.fm/meetup。还要感谢 Anthropic，Claude 是一个真正了不起的 AI 产品，它会和你一起思考，就像它在我准备这期节目时和我一起思考那样，claude.ai/acquired。你可以点击节目说明里的链接了解我们任何一位合作伙伴的更多信息。而且和往常一样，这期节目的所有资料来源、书籍等等都在节目说明里附了链接。那么，一些致谢。首先，一如既往地感谢 Worldly Partners 的 Arvind Navaratnam，感谢他关于迪士尼的出色研究报告，链接在节目说明里，去看看 worldlypartners.com。是的。好，我有一长串要感谢的人，感谢他们花时间和我们交流、帮我们准备这期节目。首先感谢 Nancy Lee，感谢鲍勃·艾格，感谢乔什·德马洛，感谢彼特·多克特（Pete Docter）、吉姆·莫里斯（Jim Morris），以及在皮克斯接待了我们一整天的所有了不起的人，包括丹妮尔·范伯格（Danielle Feinberg）、凯瑟琳·萨拉菲安（Katherine Sarafian），还有运营皮克斯档案馆的那些了不起的人。那是一次绝无仅有的体验，帮助太大了。感谢克里斯汀·贝尔，《冰雪奇缘》里安娜的配音，她帮我们思考了迪士尼动画和皮克斯。

[4:30:49] David Rosenthal

To our friends Ravi Nandan at A24, Chase Carey at Liberty Media and Fox, and to Mitch Lasky at Benchmark.To Robbie Whelan at The Wall Street Journal, who has a book on Disney coming out later this year.Also to Ben Fritz and Emily Nelson at The Wall Street Journal.And I know you have a list too.To Ed Catmull, who needs no introduction.To Jeffrey Katzenberg, same thing.To Bill Block, who formerly led Miramax.To Ben Thompson for his exceptional analysis of Disney over the last decade.That inspired a lot of my thinking.I think I read every Stratechery piece on the company to prepare for this.And lastly, to our friend Sean Bailey, former executive at Disney and led one of the studios there.And has helped us with a bunch of episodes.But obviously this one was particularly close to home.So thank you so much, Sean.If you like this episode, go check out Disney Part 1 on Walt's Life.Some other episodes you may like.The NFL, Coca-Cola, Vanguard.Or if you're willing to dive very deep into the acquired back catalog.We've got Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, ESPN, BamTech.A Disney Plus episode from 2019.I may be forgetting some.But there's plenty of Disney sprinkled around in the back catalog.You can click the link in the show notes to get access to the companion PDF.

感谢我们的朋友：A24 的 Ravi Nandan，Liberty Media 和福克斯的蔡斯·凯里（Chase Carey），以及 Benchmark 的米奇·拉斯基（Mitch Lasky）。感谢《华尔街日报》的罗比·惠兰（Robbie Whelan），他有一本关于迪士尼的书今年晚些时候出版。还要感谢《华尔街日报》的 Ben Fritz 和 Emily Nelson。我知道你也有一份名单。感谢艾德·卡特姆，他不需要介绍。感谢杰弗瑞·卡岑伯格，同样不需要介绍。感谢曾执掌米拉麦克斯的比尔·布洛克（Bill Block）。感谢本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）过去十年对迪士尼的卓越分析，那激发了我很多思考——我想我为准备这期节目把 Stratechery 上关于这家公司的每一篇都读了。最后，感谢我们的朋友肖恩·贝利（Sean Bailey），他曾是迪士尼的高管、执掌过其中一家工作室，也帮过我们很多期节目，但显然这一期对他格外贴近。所以非常感谢你，肖恩。如果你喜欢这期节目，可以去看《迪士尼》上集，讲华特的一生。你可能还会喜欢的其他几期：NFL、可口可乐、先锋领航（Vanguard）。或者如果你愿意往 Acquired 的老节目库里深挖，我们有皮克斯、漫威、卢卡斯影业、ESPN、BAMTech，还有 2019 年那期 Disney+。我可能还漏了一些，但老节目库里散落着不少迪士尼相关内容。你可以点击节目说明里的链接，获取配套 PDF。

[4:32:12] David Rosenthal

With visuals, charts, tables, and key illustrations from this episode.You can join the email list at acquired.fm slash email.To get access to all the photos that we talked about.And to learn a hint at what next episode will be.That's acquired.fm slash email.Join the Slack at acquired.fm slash Slack.And with that, listeners.We'll see you next time.We'll see you next time.Who got the truth?

里面有本期节目的图示、图表、表格和关键插图。你可以在 acquired.fm/email 加入邮件列表，拿到我们提到的所有图片，以及下期节目的一点线索。网址是 acquired.fm/email。也可以在 acquired.fm/slack 加入我们的 Slack。那么听众朋友们，我们下次再见。我们下次再见。谁掌握真相？

[4:32:38]

Is it you?Is it you?Is it you?Who got the truth now?Huh.Huh.

是你吗？是你吗？是你吗？现在谁掌握真相？哈。哈。